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[Extremeweatherguy]

Extremeweatherguy,

I have not been here long but, listening to you, it seems like every storm is going to TX.

I am just stating a fact, and the FACT is...these models really have not shifted more toward the Central Gulf.

Your right. At one point they were in the eastern Gulf. There hasn't been any consistancy with the models and there won't be until Ernesto gets organized. Think about it this way, it's like chasing your dog and trying to put the collar on it at the same time. The data won't be accurate until Ernesto gets organized.

and I agree with that 100%. We really have no idea what will happen until this gets more organized and enters the Gulf. For the moment, however, the models still hint toward a Mexico, TX or LA threat and are not more northward than earlier.

[curtadams]

What are considered the good models on that plot??????

NGPI (nogaps), GFDI (GFDL) and CONU (consensus - of the other two here). Some I don't recognize, but they have similar tracks. The westward models are inferior (BAMS, LBAR) or just reference (XTRP = extrapolation, CLP5 = historical)

If you have to pick out a model, look for NHC first and CONU second

[Rainband]

There has been no TREND in the models they have been everywhere. With all Due respect do you realize how much your posts make you look like you will be upset if you don't get Ernesto

[Furious George]

In my very unprofessional opinion, it looks like everyone from Brownsville to the FL panhandle has almost an equal chance of getting this storm. 3 things can happen when this gets in the Gulf (read the 5 pm NHC discussion). Ridge can build in and send it west (Brownsville area), the storm can find a weakness in the ridge and travel north or even northeast (as far a FL panhandle) or it could just continue it's WNW course (TX/LA). Or any combination of between.

Or we can all continue to say "this storm appears to be headed (insert you location here)". We'll see.

[Bailey1777]

Wrong they just adjusted the location using recon. The earlier position was a night estimate. It is moving just North of West so tracks will shift West.

[Wx_Warrior]

Dont ban me for this=I dont like the NHC models.....Sorry guys...I know some things and will keep 2 myself....

[Rainband]

ROTFLMAO I give up...

[Blown Away]

The historical map is crystal clear on the path!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

[curtadams]

We really have no idea what will happen until this gets more organized and enters the Gulf. For the moment, however, the models still hint toward a Mexico, TX or LA threat and are not more northward than earlier.

5-7 days out, yes, the cone is huge and includes basicaly the whole GOM. But the models *are* substantively N of before, in that before they sent it west once in the Gulf and now it's NW. While earlier runs certainly hinted at the W Gulf the 18Z models hint at a MS coast strike. Mexico is actually pretty far out for that run.

[Brent]

The historical map is crystal clear on the path!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

Oh that's so extremely and unbelievably helpful.

[O Town]

The historical map is crystal clear on the path!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

LOL. That narrows it right down.

[Extremeweatherguy]

We really have no idea what will happen until this gets more organized and enters the Gulf. For the moment, however, the models still hint toward a Mexico, TX or LA threat and are not more northward than earlier.

5-7 days out, yes, the cone is huge and includes basicaly the whole GOM. But the models *are* substantively N of before, in that before they sent it west once in the Gulf and now it's NW. While earlier runs certainly hinted at the W Gulf the 18Z models hint at a MS coast strike. Mexico is actually pretty far out for that run.

Not really. As AFM said, they are really no different than the 6Z runs.

[curtadams]

The historical map is crystal clear on the path!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

That almost deserves a sticky!

[Furious George]

I'm glad we have this divergence in possible scenarious. It keep everyone on guard and not saying "looks like this thing is headed away from me". Worst case is when we all think it's going one way and then decides to change its mind.

[curtadams]

Not really. As AFM said, they are really no different than the 6Z runs.

True, I was comparing to last night, the last time I looked. But in any case TX is no longer the *most* likely target, although the climo clearly shows it can still go anywhere.

[Lindaloo]

This is not even in the Gulf yet. Therefore, that is all these are, OPINIONS! To everybody reading this board for information, please keep up with what the Pro Mets here are saying. Stay tuned to your local newstations and the NHC.

The models are not even in total agreement yet. Trends watch for trends. They change DAILY!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Not really. As AFM said, they are really no different than the 6Z runs.

True, I was comparing to last night, the last time I looked. But in any case TX is no longer the *most* likely target, although the climo clearly shows it can still go anywhere.

I don't really think there is a *most* likely target right now. I think between TX and LA, the chances are probably the same. IMO, I think FL, AL, and MS are safe...for now.

[curtadams]

Dont ban me for this=I dont like the NHC models.....Sorry guys...I know some things and will keep 2 myself....

You mean in this specific case? They're a little off since they haven't yet fully incorporated the recon info. But overall, NHC has the lowest error of any "model". It deserves respect.

[Air Force Met]

The historical map is crystal clear on the path!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

OK...that map is crystally clearly bad. I just ran a Hurrevac Historical Track scan on tropical storms (since it was most likely one this morning, and was certainly one at your post time)...and came up with entirely different results. This has happened before and I want people to remember to take these wunderground climo maps with a grain of salt.

I only ran August storms within 180 miles (not 500)...and I have many more tropical storms than this (of course...they may only be looking at this date...which would be dumb).

5 go into Mexico
4 TX/LA
0 MS/AL
5 Florida
1 misses everything via Cuba.

Now...how is that for crystal clear?

[outbound]

The historical map is crystal clear on the path!
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... climo.html

OK...that map is crystally clearly bad. I just ran a Hurrevac Historical Track scan on tropical storms (since it was most likely one this morning, and was certainly one at your post time...and came up with entirely different results. This has happened before and I want people to remember to take these wunderground climo maps with a grain of sailt.

I only ran August storms within 180 miles (not 500)...and I have many more storms than this (of course...they may only be looking at this date...which would be dumb).

5 go into Mexico
4 TX/LA
0 MS/AL
5 Florida
1 misses everything via Cuba.

Now...how is that for crystal clear?

dang, I don't like that. Shame on you Air force met....