Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

#701 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:48 pm

Dang Derek...it's always an extreme either one way or the other. Either it's going to completely fall apart, or watch out GOM. There's never an "in between" solution.

canegrl04 · #702 Postby **canegrl04** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:48 pm

Looks like another one bites the dust :roll:

#703 Postby **TheEuropean** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:48 pm

437
SXXX50 KNHC 251734
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 11 KNHC
1726. 1342N 06723W 00307 5040 308 011 240 238 011 00278 0000000000
1727 1340N 06724W 00305 5039 309 011 240 236 011 00277 0000000000
1727. 1339N 06726W 00304 5037 313 011 240 236 011 00278 0000000000
1728 1338N 06727W 00305 5037 316 010 240 234 010 00279 0000000000
1728. 1336N 06728W 00304 5037 319 009 240 236 009 00278 0000000000
1729 1335N 06730W 00306 5037 322 009 240 232 009 00279 0000000000
1729. 1334N 06731W 00304 5037 326 008 242 226 008 00278 0000000000
1730 1332N 06732W 00304 5036 330 008 246 216 009 00279 0000000000
1730. 1331N 06733W 00308 5035 336 008 240 224 008 00284 0000000000
1731 1330N 06735W 00303 5034 340 006 240 234 007 00279 0000000000
1731. 1328N 06736W 00304 5034 329 006 242 228 006 00281 0000000000
1732 1327N 06738W 00307 5034 345 007 238 238 007 00284 0000000000
1732. 1326N 06739W 00303 5034 001 007 240 240 008 00279 0000000000
1733 1324N 06740W 00306 5034 360 007 238 238 008 00283 0000000000
1733. 1323N 06742W 00306 5034 352 009 240 236 010 00283 0000000000
1734 1321N 06743W 00304 5033 353 011 242 236 011 00281 0000000000
1734. 1320N 06744W 00306 5031 348 009 242 238 010 00285 0000000000
1735 1318N 06746W 00304 5030 327 009 246 238 010 00285 0000000000
1735. 1317N 06747W 00305 5030 323 009 246 236 009 00286 0000000000
1736 1316N 06748W 00306 5030 326 008 246 238 008 00286 0000000000

#704 Postby **TheEuropean** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:50 pm

717
SXXX50 KNHC 251744
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 12 KNHC
1736. 1314N 06750W 00302 5030 319 008 246 238 008 00282 0000000000
1737 1313N 06751W 00304 5031 318 007 246 238 008 00284 0000000000
1737. 1312N 06753W 00305 5030 323 007 246 236 008 00286 0000000000
1738 1310N 06754W 00304 5030 324 009 246 234 010 00285 0000000000
1738. 1309N 06755W 00305 5029 328 010 246 232 010 00287 0000000000
1739 1307N 06757W 00305 5029 332 011 250 230 011 00286 0000000000
1739. 1306N 06758W 00306 5028 334 011 250 232 011 00289 0000000000
1740 1305N 06759W 00304 5028 321 008 250 236 010 00287 0000000000
1740. 1303N 06801W 00304 5028 310 006 250 236 007 00286 0000000000
1741 1302N 06802W 00305 5028 310 006 250 236 006 00287 0000000000
1741. 1300N 06803W 00305 5028 304 007 250 234 007 00287 0000000000
1742 1259N 06805W 00306 5028 309 007 250 234 007 00289 0000000000
1742. 1258N 06806W 00304 5028 314 007 250 234 007 00287 0000000000
1743 1256N 06807W 00304 5027 308 007 250 234 007 00288 0000000000
1743. 1255N 06809W 00305 5027 306 006 250 230 006 00289 0000000000
1744 1254N 06810W 00304 5027 307 005 250 234 006 00288 0000000000
1744. 1252N 06811W 00305 5026 307 006 246 238 007 00289 0000000000
1745 1251N 06813W 00306 5026 311 007 248 236 007 00290 0000000000
1745. 1249N 06814W 00304 5026 306 007 250 236 007 00289 0000000000
1746 1248N 06815W 00305 5025 304 009 246 238 009 00290 0000000000

Derek Ortt · #705 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:50 pm

this case, ther eis no in between, just like Chris. It is an all or nothing set-up

DROliver · #706 Postby **DROliver** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:50 pm

Storm: Storm CYCLONE: Observed By AF #303
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 48KT (55.2mph) In NE Quadrant At 17:01:30 Z (Report Time: 24/2206 Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 12.9N 62.3W 027 KT (31.05MPH) [21:14:40Z to 21:30:00Z ]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 10 KT (11.5MPH) @ 010°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 13.4N 63.1W 030 KT (34.5MPH) [21:40:20Z to 21:48:30Z ]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 20 KT (23MPH) @ 040°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
O01 12.2N 63.0W Unknown data 24°C 24°C 005 KT (5.75MPH) @ 990°
O02 12.4N 62.8W Unknown data 24°C 24°C 005 KT (5.75MPH) @ 990°
O03 13.0N 62.3W Unknown data 25°C 22°C 026 KT (29.9MPH) @ 160°
O01 13.0N 62.8W Unknown data 23°C 23°C 021 KT (24.15MPH) @ 50°
O02 13.2N 63.0W Unknown data 24°C 24°C 028 KT (32.2MPH) @ 50°
O03 13.4N 63.1W Unknown data 24°C 23°C 030 KT (34.5MPH) @ 50°

x-y-no · #707 Postby **x-y-no** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:51 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
stormernie wrote:If this is the center than this is being sheared to pieces, it's to the NW of the main MLC. This will not survive if this is it.

That is the center. There are 40 knot winds on the SE side...which is very strong to have anything located under the MLC.

This is VERY bad for Ernesto.

Yeah, although there have been cases of storms recovering from this ... wasn't it Jeanne which spit out an LLC in the direction of Cuba and everyone thought that was the end of her only to have her form a new LLC the next day? (of course Jeanne was anomalous in all kinds of screwy ways ...)

Grease Monkey · #708 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:52 pm

At least Chris got a name.

#709 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:56 pm

Air Force Met wrote:
stormernie wrote:If this is the center than this is being sheared to pieces, it's to the NW of the main MLC. This will not survive if this is it.

That is the center. There are 40 knot winds on the SE side...which is very strong to have anything located under the MLC.

This is VERY bad for Ernesto.

Clearly, the weak swirl NW of the MLC isn't going to be any focus for development. Watch for the LLC to reform beneath the MLC. May be doing so soon.

Derek Ortt · #710 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:57 pm

I cannot see a center forming there with 40KT at the surface though

#711 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 12:58 pm

Ooooh....I like when pro mets have complete disagreement! LOL

#712 Postby **TheEuropean** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:00 pm

045
SXXX50 KNHC 251754
AF303 0205A CYCLONE HDOB 13 KNHC
1746. 1247N 06817W 00307 5025 299 008 246 240 008 00292 0000000000
1747 1245N 06818W 00305 5025 290 007 246 240 008 00290 0000000000
1747. 1244N 06817W 00307 5025 280 008 246 238 008 00292 0000000000
1748 1244N 06815W 00305 5025 261 007 246 240 008 00290 0000000000
1748. 1244N 06813W 00307 5025 257 009 246 240 009 00292 0000000000
1749 1244N 06810W 00305 5026 252 008 248 236 009 00290 0000000000
1749. 1244N 06808W 00304 5027 248 009 246 240 009 00288 0000000000
1750 1244N 06806W 00305 5027 253 009 246 238 009 00288 0000000000
1750. 1244N 06804W 00305 5027 255 008 248 236 009 00289 0000000000
1751 1244N 06802W 00305 5028 247 009 246 236 009 00287 0000000000
1751. 1244N 06800W 00305 5028 243 011 246 240 011 00288 0000000000
1752 1244N 06758W 00305 5028 240 011 246 238 012 00287 0000000000
1752. 1244N 06756W 00305 5028 242 012 246 238 012 00287 0000000000
1753 1244N 06754W 00305 5028 242 012 246 238 013 00287 0000000000
1753. 1244N 06752W 00304 5028 239 013 246 238 014 00286 0000000000
1754 1244N 06749W 00305 5028 243 012 246 234 012 00287 0000000000
1754. 1244N 06747W 00305 5028 241 011 246 234 012 00288 0000000000
1755 1244N 06745W 00305 5028 238 012 244 232 012 00288 0000000000
1755. 1244N 06743W 00305 5028 239 013 244 230 014 00287 0000000000
1756 1244N 06741W 00305 5028 240 013 246 232 013 00287 0000000000

#713 Postby **Air Force Met** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:01 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Clearly, the weak swirl NW of the MLC isn't going to be any focus for development. Watch for the LLC to reform beneath the MLC. May be doing so soon.

I agree...and I REALLY hope they fly over there to get a look-see at what is going on under there. If the gradient is just as strong...we know it won't happen any time soon...if the gradient is weak...then we can get ready rumble.

Man o MAN I hope they get over near 13/66...or SE of there...

#714 Postby **mvtrucking** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:01 pm

Chris Part ll... Next Please...

craptacular · #715 Postby **craptacular** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:01 pm

They've finally turned to head east.

#716 Postby **TreasureIslandFLGal** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:01 pm

...unless that 40kt "at the surface" is not at the surface like you said earlier...that may just be higher up?

It may pull a Chris, or it may relocate the center liek so many storms did last year when they looked like they were going to go poof because their first centers got exposed. Another center can only form though if that mid level swirl is super strong though and there is loads of convection. it that isn't healthy, it won't happen.

#717 Postby **Steve** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:02 pm

>>37.6 knots at the surface!!! Come on closed LLC!

Just a dome on Mt. St. Helens. Magma, please! Get to Mt. Rainier and explode becuase I heart volanoes!
----------------------------------------------------------
Thanks for the good words 57 & AFM. I'll keep looking forward to your replies.

TPS

gopherfan21 · #718 Postby **gopherfan21** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:02 pm

Yeah...I'm going to go with wxman57 on this. He's been more right in the past.

Grease Monkey · #719 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:03 pm

No it will strip. "2006, the year of the strip tease".

DROliver · #720 Postby **DROliver** » Fri Aug 25, 2006 1:03 pm

Storm: Storm CYCLONE: Observed By AF #303
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 48KT (55.2mph) In NE Quadrant At 17:01:30 Z (Report Time: 25/1749 Z)
Max Inbound Flight Level Winds: 14.5N 66.5W 048 KT (55.2MPH) [16:50:40Z to 17:10:00Z ]
Inbound Surface Wind Observed At 30 KT (34.5MPH) @ 120°
Max Outbound Flight Level Winds: 13.9N 67.2W 015 KT (17.25MPH) [17:25:30Z to 17:41:20Z ]
Outbound Surface Wind Observed At 05 KT (5.75MPH) @ 990°
Data # Position Height Temp Dewpoint Wind
O01 14.9N 66.0W Unknown data 24°C 23°C 036 KT (41.4MPH) @ 120°
O02 14.8N 66.2W Unknown data 23°C 23°C 040 KT (46MPH) @ 120°
O03 14.6N 66.4W Unknown data 23°C 23°C 046 KT (52.9MPH) @ 120°
O04 14.4N 66.6W Unknown data 24°C 24°C 036 KT (41.4MPH) @ 110°
O05 14.2N 66.7W Unknown data 24°C 24°C 019 KT (21.85MPH) @ 140°
O01 13.7N 67.4W Unknown data 24°C 23°C 011 KT (12.65MPH) @ 310°
O02 13.5N 67.5W Unknown data 24°C 21°C 005 KT (5.75MPH) @ 990°
O03 13.4N 67.7W Unknown data 24°C 23°C 011 KT (12.65MPH) @ 350°
O04 13.2N 67.9W Unknown data 24°C 23°C 005 KT (5.75MPH) @ 990°
O05 13.0N 68.1W Unknown data 25°C 24°C 005 KT (5.75MPH) @ 990°

Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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