Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[jlauderdal]

VDM in minutes.

Doesn't this occur only when we have a center?

si

[Derek Ortt]

if there is a center, no change from previous and the storm is behaving itself nicely

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

[DESTRUCTION5]

[quote="cycloneye"][b]URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

Eddie?

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 251724
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/17:15:20Z
B. 14 deg 04 min N
066 deg 58 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 48 deg 039 nm
F. 118 deg 048 kt
G. 048 deg 040 nm
H. EXTRAP 1005 mb
I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0205A CYCLONE OB 04
MAX FL WIND 48 KT NE QUAD 17:01:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT

[x-y-no]

I. 23 C/ 304 m
J. 24 C/ 304 m

Poor temperature profile there ...

This thing is not in healthy condition at all right now.

[stormernie]

If this is the center than this is being sheared to pieces, it's to the NW of the main MLC. This will not survive if this is it.

[craptacular]

So do you think the NHC will issue a special advisory, or wait until 5 EDT?

[Grease Monkey]

So do you think the NHC will issue a special advisory, or wait until 5 EDT?

Why not just upgrade for 2pm EDT?

[DROliver]

Storm CYCLONE: Observed By AF #303
Storm #05 in Atlantic Ocean
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 48KT (55.2mph) In NE Quadrant At 17:01:30 Z
Date/Time of Recon Report: NaN
Position of the center: 14° 04' N 066° 58' W

Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 45 KT (51.75MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 039nm (44.85miles) From Center At Bearing 48°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 048KT (55.2mph) From 118°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 040nm (46miles) From Center At Bearing 048°
Minimum pressure: EXTRAP 1005mb (NaNin)
Eye Wall Was < 50% Closed
Eye Did Not Have A Definable Form
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 1500ft
Navigational Accuracy Measured At 0.02nm
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At 2nm

[Derek Ortt]

I would not upgrade based upon this, not with the center 100 miles from the convection and racing ahead, though it may have been a TS earlier this morning

[cycloneye]

I have to go now so anyone can continue to post the obs.

[Air Force Met]

If this is the center than this is being sheared to pieces, it's to the NW of the main MLC. This will not survive if this is it.

That is the center. There are 40 knot winds on the SE side...which is very strong to have anything located under the MLC.

This is VERY bad for Ernesto.

[Air Force Met]

So do you think the NHC will issue a special advisory, or wait until 5 EDT?

Why not just upgrade for 2pm EDT?

There is no advisory being issued at that time...there are no watches or warning out...nor are any required.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Water Vapor shows alot of shear ahead of the TD.

[miamicanes177]

I would not upgrade based upon this

a closed LLC and tropical storm force winds. It either has to be an open wave or a tropical storm. It can not be a tropical depression because the winds are too high. So are you calling this a an open wave?

[Derek Ortt]

and even if that UL does get out of the way, the models flat out missed the one just north of the TD which should also drop SW

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Derek, do you think TD survives?

[Derek Ortt]

I would leave this as a TD until ther eis evidence of SURFACE TS winds. Upgrading this absed upon marginal flight level winds would be something I'd rather strangle myself than do

[Derek Ortt]

chances of survival have went down significantly during the day today, since the convection is congregating near the MLC and not the LLC, the same thing that killed Chris