Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[KFDM Meteorologist]

I've noticed over the years they always forecast to low. But strength forecasting is hard that far our. We'll see what the upper low over Cuba does? I think it will be stronger than what they have forecast at 60 hours.

[brunota2003]

450
SXXX50 KNHC 242127
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 40 KNHC
2119. 1227N 06247W 00305 5026 029 008 246 238 009 00290 0000000000
2120 1228N 06246W 00304 5025 023 011 246 238 012 00290 0000000000
2120. 1229N 06244W 00305 5025 012 011 242 242 011 00291 0000000000
2121 1231N 06243W 00304 5026 009 009 240 240 010 00288 0000000000
2121. 1232N 06242W 00305 5027 005 008 240 240 008 00289 0000000000
2122 1233N 06240W 00305 5027 020 007 240 236 007 00289 0000000000
2122. 1235N 06239W 00305 5028 034 005 244 232 006 00287 0000000000
2123 1236N 06238W 00303 5028 052 005 242 242 006 00285 0000000000
2123. 1237N 06236W 00305 5029 048 005 238 238 006 00286 0000000000
2124 1239N 06235W 00305 5030 062 002 244 232 003 00285 0000000000
2124. 1240N 06234W 00305 5032 354 002 242 232 003 00284 0000000000
2125 1241N 06232W 00305 5033 325 002 236 236 003 00283 0000000000
2125. 1243N 06231W 00305 5034 204 005 234 234 008 00281 0000000000
2126 1244N 06229W 00305 5035 205 007 230 230 007 00280 0000000000
2126. 1246N 06228W 00305 5037 204 009 236 236 010 00278 0000000000
2127 1247N 06227W 00305 5039 193 011 238 238 012 00277 0000000000
2127. 1248N 06225W 00304 5039 191 014 242 236 014 00275 0000000000
2128 1250N 06224W 00305 5039 186 016 236 236 018 00276 0000000000
2128. 1251N 06222W 00305 5040 175 018 242 242 020 00275 0000000000
2129 1253N 06221W 00305 5039 172 021 244 234 021 00276 0000000000

[Swimdude]

I've noticed over the years they always forecast to low. But strength forecasting is hard that far our. We'll see what the upper low over Cuba does? I think it will be stronger than what they have forecast at 60 hours.

Yup, with ALL of our "major" hurricanes last year[3 and above] the NHC forecasted on the low side, all the way through the life of the storm. But then again, with the dry air and Westerly shear, we may have a situation such as Chris - where the NHC predicts strengthening, ignores the models that forecast dissipation, and yet dissipation occurs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Very little dry air ahead of it, in fact it looks to be filling in..

[JTD]

Are the models predicting dissipation ATM?

If they are, then TD #5 is as good as dead (see Chris)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Na, Ernesto will make it i believe..

[brunota2003]

266
SXXX50 KNHC 242137
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 41 KNHC
2129. 1254N 06219W 00304 5038 165 026 246 208 027 00276 0000000000
2130 1256N 06218W 00307 5038 168 025 246 230 026 00279 0000000000
2130. 1257N 06220W 00304 5040 158 024 242 234 026 00275 0000000000
2131 1257N 06222W 00304 5040 152 019 240 240 020 00274 0000000000
2131. 1257N 06224W 00304 5040 154 015 240 240 016 00274 0000000000
2132 1256N 06226W 00305 5041 153 011 240 240 012 00275 0000000000
2132. 1255N 06227W 00305 5041 153 007 240 240 009 00274 0000000000
2133 1255N 06229W 00304 5042 142 007 244 240 007 00272 0000000000
2133. 1254N 06231W 00305 5041 126 006 242 240 006 00274 0000000000
2134 1253N 06233W 00305 5040 112 004 238 238 004 00276 0000000000
2134. 1252N 06235W 00305 5039 082 002 236 236 003 00276 0000000000
2135 1251N 06236W 00304 5038 354 002 236 236 004 00276 0000000000
2135. 1249N 06236W 00303 5037 327 007 232 232 007 00277 0000000000
2136 1247N 06237W 00304 5035 349 010 230 230 011 00279 0000000000
2136. 1247N 06239W 00306 5034 014 009 230 230 010 00283 0000000000
2137 1248N 06240W 00306 5034 029 009 230 230 009 00283 0000000000
2137. 1250N 06241W 00306 5034 037 011 230 230 012 00282 0000000000
2138 1252N 06242W 00304 5034 040 014 232 232 014 00280 0000000000
2138. 1254N 06243W 00307 5034 042 018 230 230 021 00283 0000000000
2139 1255N 06244W 00303 5034 041 020 230 230 021 00280 0000000000

[brunota2003]

alright guys...gtg bbl...someone take over please...link: http://tropicalupdates.nhcwx.com/recon.htm

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok taking over!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

781
SXXX50 KNHC 242147
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 42 KNHC
2139. 1257N 06245W 00306 5034 040 022 230 230 023 00282 0000000000
2140 1258N 06246W 00304 5033 042 022 230 230 023 00282 0000000000
2140. 1259N 06247W 00304 5033 047 023 224 224 024 00282 0000000000
2141 1301N 06249W 00305 5031 046 023 236 236 024 00285 0000000000
2141. 1302N 06250W 00305 5030 043 022 236 236 022 00285 0000000000
2142 1304N 06251W 00304 5030 043 022 236 236 023 00284 0000000000
2142. 1305N 06252W 00305 5029 045 025 236 234 026 00287 0000000000
2143 1307N 06253W 00304 5029 044 024 238 232 025 00286 0000000000
2143. 1308N 06255W 00305 5028 048 026 236 234 026 00288 0000000000
2144 1309N 06256W 00305 5028 050 027 236 236 027 00288 0000000000
2144. 1311N 06257W 00305 5027 053 026 236 236 026 00289 0000000000
2145 1312N 06258W 00305 5026 049 027 238 238 028 00290 0000000000
2145. 1314N 06300W 00303 5026 047 027 240 240 028 00287 0000000000
2146 1315N 06301W 00306 5025 050 028 240 238 029 00292 0000000000
2146. 1317N 06302W 00305 5025 049 028 240 238 029 00291 0000000000
2147 1318N 06303W 00305 5024 049 028 240 238 029 00291 0000000000
2147. 1320N 06304W 00305 5024 047 028 240 236 028 00291 0000000000
2148 1321N 06306W 00304 5024 051 028 242 232 029 00291 0000000000
2148. 1323N 06307W 00305 5022 048 029 240 236 030 00293 0000000000
2149 1324N 06308W 00306 5022 053 029 240 236 030 00295 0000000000

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Thats a big decrease in overall max winds there. I will be watching for Vortex.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

404
SXXX50 KNHC 242157
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 43 KNHC
2149. 1325N 06309W 00305 5021 054 029 240 236 030 00295 0000000000
2150 1327N 06311W 00304 5021 055 030 240 236 031 00294 0000000000
2150. 1328N 06312W 00305 5020 057 031 238 238 032 00296 0000000000
2151 1330N 06313W 00338 5018 059 030 238 236 031 00330 0000000000
2151. 1331N 06314W 00651 5003 057 034 220 206 036 00669 0000000000
2152 1333N 06316W 01010 0025 060 034 200 186 034 01060 0000000000
2152. 1334N 06317W 01404 0046 058 034 176 166 035 01486 0000000000
2153 1336N 06318W 01796 0070 059 036 158 144 037 01902 0000000000
2153. 1338N 06319W 02170 0092 057 037 140 108 039 02301 0000000000
2154 1340N 06319W 02545 0112 055 040 118 056 043 02700 0000000000
2154. 1341N 06320W 02903 0134 053 041 092 036 042 03080 0000000000
2155 1343N 06320W 03239 0158 055 034 070 044 038 03442 0000000000
2155. 1345N 06321W 03554 0182 054 022 060 052 025 03781 0000000000
2156 1347N 06322W 03844 0201 053 018 052 034 019 04091 0000000000
2156. 1348N 06324W 04168 0209 069 019 042 043 020 04438 0000000000
2157 1349N 06326W 04395 0210 079 020 028 087 020 04685 0000000000
2157. 1351N 06327W 04433 0213 084 023 024 041 025 04725 0000000000
2158 1353N 06328W 04431 0215 081 025 018 041 025 04726 0000000000
2158. 1355N 06330W 04682 0240 080 023 006 039 024 05002 0000000000
2159 1357N 06331W 05126 0280 084 021 021 063 023 05488 0000000000


43 knots!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Surface winds at 34.4 knots...Very very close.

[southerngale]

2154 1340N 06319W 02545 0112 055 040 118 056 043 02700 0000000000

43 knots found

[P.K.]

That was while they aeroplane was ascending, and had reached 2545m by that point.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

596
URNT12 KNHC 242204 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/21:34:00Z
B. 12 deg 52 min N
062 deg 34 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 084 deg 014 nm
F. 163 deg 027 kt
G. 081 deg 015 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 24 C/ 305 m
J. 24 C/ 306 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 23 CCA
MAX FL WIND 39 KT NE QUAD 19:37:50 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
TEMP 25 DEG C 083/15NM


The old on had ob 19 this one has 23.

[jasons2k]

Did I read that right - 1007mb? - it was 1009 earlier.

[Derek Ortt]

43KT is during a climb as the plane leaves

not a valid reading

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think both where 1007...So PK they flyed a aeroplane into a hurricane?

[Stratosphere747]

"Aeroplane" is the dialect of the lads across the pond....