Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[WmE]

VDM shows 35 KT surface winds, kinda makes me wonder why they had it at a 35 MPH TD? Maybe they had everything wrote up before the vdm.

The 35kts are just a estimate of the crew.

[brunota2003]

750
SXXX50 KNHC 242057
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 37 KNHC
2049. 1323N 06255W 00303 5026 060 034 240 240 036 00288 0000000000
2050 1324N 06256W 00308 5025 061 032 240 240 033 00294 0000000000
2050. 1324N 06258W 00306 5024 056 031 238 238 032 00292 0000000000
2051 1324N 06300W 00303 5024 046 030 246 240 031 00290 0000000000
2051. 1323N 06301W 00305 5024 046 028 246 238 029 00292 0000000000
2052 1321N 06302W 00305 5024 041 027 246 238 028 00291 0000000000
2052. 1320N 06303W 00305 5025 040 027 246 238 028 00290 0000000000
2053 1318N 06303W 00312 5025 039 025 246 238 026 00298 0000000000
2053. 1316N 06303W 00307 5024 046 027 246 238 028 00293 0000000000
2054 1314N 06303W 00305 5025 046 029 244 236 031 00291 0000000000
2054. 1312N 06304W 00303 5026 039 029 246 240 030 00288 0000000000
2055 1310N 06304W 00304 5026 037 028 246 238 029 00289 0000000000
2055. 1308N 06304W 00303 5026 034 028 246 240 029 00288 0000000000
2056 1306N 06304W 00303 5027 033 026 246 240 027 00287 0000000000
2056. 1305N 06304W 00305 5027 031 027 248 238 027 00289 0000000000
2057 1303N 06304W 00303 5027 031 027 248 240 028 00286 0000000000
2057. 1301N 06305W 00308 5027 031 027 246 244 028 00292 0000000000
2058 1259N 06305W 00303 5027 031 027 242 242 027 00286 0000000000
2058. 1257N 06305W 00306 5028 029 027 236 236 028 00289 0000000000
2059 1255N 06305W 00308 5027 026 029 240 240 031 00292 0000000000

[gopherfan21]

VDM shows 35 KT surface winds

Do not pay any attention to Line D...it means nothing. You have to determine sfc winds through MAX FL wind or unless they specifically state a drop ob in the comments section.

[jlauderdal]

I have a graphic that depicts the typical conversion from FL winds to surface here. From 1000 ft, it's close to a 30% reduction:

you get the most useful information so far today award. this subject comes up all the time when recon is in these systems.

[dwg71]

Wow a hurricane later in the forecast.

No not at this time...60KTS

[AJC3]

*post moved to recon discussion thread*

[stormernie]

I don't agree 100% with the track, and the fact that it is heaing west. If one looks it heading more on a WNW track, it still early and I would say that this will change later tonight on the 11 PM Advisory.

[CrazyC83]

Would they issue a special advisory if it is indeed a TS?

[brunota2003]

I think I missed this ob:
268
URNT11 KNHC 242051
97779 20494 50134 62900 03100 06032 24249 /0009
40625
RMK AF303 01GGA INVEST OB 20

[brunota2003]

684
SXXX50 KNHC 242107
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 38 KNHC
2059. 1254N 06306W 00302 5027 023 024 244 244 025 00286 0000000000
2100 1252N 06307W 00304 5027 029 025 242 242 026 00287 0000000000
2100. 1250N 06307W 00306 5027 024 025 250 242 026 00289 0000000000
2101 1248N 06307W 00303 5027 023 022 250 242 023 00287 0000000000
2101. 1247N 06307W 00306 5027 020 022 250 240 022 00289 0000000000
2102 1245N 06307W 00305 5028 018 021 250 242 021 00287 0000000000
2102. 1243N 06307W 00306 5028 023 021 250 240 021 00288 0000000000
2103 1241N 06307W 00304 5028 021 021 250 242 021 00287 0000000000
2103. 1239N 06307W 00305 5028 019 021 250 240 022 00288 0000000000
2104 1237N 06308W 00305 5028 018 021 250 244 021 00287 0000000000
2104. 1236N 06308W 00305 5028 018 021 250 240 022 00287 0000000000
2105 1234N 06308W 00306 5028 015 020 248 242 021 00288 0000000000
2105. 1232N 06308W 00303 5028 013 018 246 242 018 00286 0000000000
2106 1230N 06308W 00306 5028 008 020 248 240 020 00288 0000000000
2106. 1228N 06308W 00308 5028 007 021 240 240 022 00290 0000000000
2107 1226N 06308W 00309 5026 007 020 242 240 021 00294 0000000000
2107. 1224N 06308W 00302 5026 004 018 240 240 019 00287 0000000000
2108 1223N 06308W 00307 5026 003 020 242 242 021 00291 0000000000
2108. 1221N 06308W 00305 5027 347 016 246 246 019 00289 0000000000
2109 1219N 06309W 00306 5027 349 015 250 240 016 00289 0000000000

[canegrl04]

HURRICANE STRENGHT IN 60 HOURS If this forecast holds,we will see hurricane Ernesto by Sunday

[dwg71]

HURRICANE STRENGHT IN 60 HOURS If this forecast holds,we will see hurricane Ernesto by Sunday

Where do you see this, NHC has it to stay TS throughout entire 5 day forecast?

[KFDM Meteorologist]

NHC strength forecast may be to low. We'll see.

[senorpepr]

HURRICANE STRENGHT IN 60 HOURS If this forecast holds,we will see hurricane Ernesto by Sunday

Where do you see this, NHC has it to stay TS throughout entire 5 day forecast?

Read the last paragraph of the discussion/

[dwg71]

NHC strength forecast may be to low. We'll see.

Your right, or too high or too west or too east. This is a really tricky intensity forecast because of the unpredictability of the inhibiting factors of this region of the Carb.

[AnnularCane]

I don't agree 100% with the track, and the fact that it is heaing west. If one looks it heading more on a WNW track, it still early and I would say that this will change later tonight on the 11 PM Advisory.

It looks west to me, but it's hard to say for sure.

[brunota2003]

917
SXXX50 KNHC 242117
AF303 01GGA INVEST HDOB 39 KNHC
2109. 1217N 06309W 00304 5027 344 016 250 238 017 00288 0000000000
2110 1214N 06309W 00305 5026 343 015 250 236 015 00290 0000000000
2110. 1212N 06309W 00304 5026 348 013 250 234 014 00288 0000000000
2111 1210N 06309W 00306 5026 350 015 246 240 016 00290 0000000000
2111. 1208N 06309W 00305 5027 345 013 250 234 014 00289 0000000000
2112 1207N 06308W 00306 5027 337 010 248 236 012 00290 0000000000
2112. 1208N 06306W 00304 5026 341 007 248 236 008 00288 0000000000
2113 1209N 06305W 00304 5026 327 007 244 236 008 00289 0000000000
2113. 1210N 06304W 00307 5024 335 006 246 236 006 00293 0000000000
2114 1212N 06302W 00305 5024 324 006 244 238 007 00291 0000000000
2114. 1213N 06301W 00305 5024 328 006 242 242 007 00291 0000000000
2115 1215N 06259W 00306 5025 324 006 244 240 007 00292 0000000000
2115. 1216N 06258W 00305 5025 330 005 248 242 006 00291 0000000000
2116 1217N 06257W 00302 5026 012 008 250 246 009 00287 0000000000
2116. 1219N 06255W 00305 5027 016 008 246 244 009 00289 0000000000
2117 1220N 06254W 00306 5026 010 008 246 242 008 00290 0000000000
2117. 1221N 06253W 00305 5027 015 008 246 244 008 00288 0000000000
2118 1223N 06251W 00305 5028 017 007 246 244 007 00287 0000000000
2118. 1224N 06250W 00305 5029 019 005 246 238 006 00287 0000000000
2119 1225N 06248W 00305 5028 016 005 246 242 005 00287 0000000000

[Brent]

NHC strength forecast may be to low. We'll see.

Yeah... or there's a chance it could be too high. I think it's probably too low though, but we'll see.

[dwg71]

HURRICANE STRENGHT IN 60 HOURS If this forecast holds,we will see hurricane Ernesto by Sunday

Where do you see this, NHC has it to stay TS throughout entire 5 day forecast?

Read the last paragraph of the discussion/

That is a discussion of a model I believe, but the NHC does not forcast a hurricane in its official forecast..

[canegrl04]

In the last paragraph it says the GFS model takes it to hurricane strength in 60 hours