When will Ernesto form?

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KFDM Meteorologist
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#61 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:42 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.
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#62 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:43 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

This is the surface map for that same time period. See some reflection of Ernesto in the SE Gulf.

Wednesday night. Also notice weak cool front in the deep south.
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#63 Postby TexWx » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:45 pm

KFDM: So if you're correct, this is incorrect. :D


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#64 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:51 pm

When is that valid? GFS basically has it moving into cuba then west as high blocks it next week. We'll see if that holds up on future runs. The new Eurpoean model will be out in the morning.
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#65 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 23, 2006 11:55 pm

NOGAPS next Tuesday. Strong high on it. IF this right it stays away from Texas.

http://www.wxcaster.com/CONUS_NOGAPS_50 ... _144HR.gif
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#66 Postby Cyclenall » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:38 pm

Cyclenall wrote:My guess is August 24th at 5:00 pm EST. That's for the depression, not the TS. It would be from Invest 97L.

I AM THE WINNER. :D I got it perfect. Amazing!
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#67 Postby SouthFloridawx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 2:39 pm

Cyclenall wrote:
Cyclenall wrote:My guess is August 24th at 5:00 pm EST. That's for the depression, not the TS. It would be from Invest 97L.

I AM THE WINNER. :D I got it perfect. Amazing!


Wow you did get it....
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#68 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:21 pm

I hate to rain on your parade but if we were guessing when we have "Ernesto," shouldn't the winner be declared when it is named a tropical storm and not a tropical depression? :wink:
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#69 Postby jhamps10 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:25 pm

umm if you look, he had the time frame out for the depression forming, and not TS. Either way, great guess.
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#70 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:27 pm

Yes, it was a great guess ... and much better than mine.
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#71 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:31 pm

I say TS at 11 PM tonight.
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#72 Postby Air Force Met » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:38 pm

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

I can breathe easier if this is right. The 500 High is over the central Gulf.


Well...looking at the current run...there are some subtle changes.

Old
Latest

The high is more to the NE. Instead of being at 91W...it's at 89W. INstead of just ridging into Florida...there is another high now over Florida. Where there was substantial ridging into west TX...now there is none.
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#73 Postby JonathanBelles » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:43 pm

im going to say because of shear, tomorrow at 11p or saturday at 5a
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#74 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 4:52 pm

Early Friday morning
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#75 Postby canegrl04 » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:14 pm

Cat 2 cane over Cuba by Monday??? :eek: :eek: :eek: Reminds me of 2004 and 2005 systems in this area.They exploded over the warm waters in the western Carribean
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#76 Postby weatherrabbit_tx » Thu Aug 24, 2006 5:29 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Cat 2 cane over Cuba by Monday??? :eek: :eek: :eek: Reminds me of 2004 and 2005 systems in this area.They exploded over the warm waters in the western Carribean


very well could happen..
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#77 Postby FritzPaul » Thu Aug 24, 2006 6:10 pm

Albeit I've looked at floater 2 for the first time @ 6:00pm CDT, I have to say TD5 will become Ernesto on the next advisory (11:00pm EDT).

Paul
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#78 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 24, 2006 7:42 pm

Sometime between now and November :wink:
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#79 Postby whereverwx » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:38 pm

calamity wrote:OK, I'll play too! :D :P

August 25th.

I'm right for once! :D :eek:
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#80 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Aug 25, 2006 3:40 pm

calamity wrote:
calamity wrote:OK, I'll play too! :D :P

August 25th.

I'm right for once! :D :eek:


This was a pretty easy one because the signs were already pointing to his arrival...Florence is a bit more difficult.
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