Anyone notice that 2006 Hurricane season is......

[marcane_1973]

Just way too much going on out there. A great example is this satellite photo in the GOM. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg Conditions are so hostile in that region that the Gulf would be lucky to support a TS at this point. What is the dealio with all these upper level lows in the Atlantic so far this season??? Sorry but I still do not see areas in the Atlantic to support a major cane which should be in place RIGHT NOW. It is almost September for out loud. The Bermuda High is a little weak also compared to what it should be for this time of the year as well. Do any of you experts out there see any major changes coming in the next couple of weeks or so to produce a normal looking train of Cape Verde storms for the peak month of 2006??? It seems to me until we start to see more normal favorable conditions out there in the Atlantic instead of everything bunched up 2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

[gtalum]

...2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

Not likely, since with 4 storms at this point 2006 is slightly ahead of the average year.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

With out a hurricane sure it will be slow...But the 1980s around 1980 to 1985...And 1914 where some of the slowest years on record. Some of those years had 4 to 6 storms on record. In I believe 1914 only had one. 9 times out of 10 you get a hurricane in the hurricane season. Or maybe more. So really yes its kind of slow but its no where near the quitest. I'm waiting for it to go off with 97L...Which I expect to develop!

[senorpepr]

It seems to me until we start to see more normal favorable conditions out there in the Atlantic instead of everything bunched up 2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

For what it's worth... A) the record is much lower than you think. One named storm is the record. B) 2006 remains near normal thus far in the season.

[rainstorm]

near normal in named storms, but we are clearly below normal in canes and major canes, the important stat. if debby doesnt make it that will make 4 weak ts's and no canes. marcane makes a good point. condotions remain hostile at this point, as debby looks very bad right now

[dwg71]

Number of named storms is about normal, but we are behind schedule for our first cane.

[johngaltfla]

Just way too much going on out there. A great example is this satellite photo in the GOM. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg Conditions are so hostile in that region that the Gulf would be lucky to support a TS at this point. What is the dealio with all these upper level lows in the Atlantic so far this season??? Sorry but I still do not see areas in the Atlantic to support a major cane which should be in place RIGHT NOW. It is almost September for out loud. The Bermuda High is a little weak also compared to what it should be for this time of the year as well. Do any of you experts out there see any major changes coming in the next couple of weeks or so to produce a normal looking train of Cape Verde storms for the peak month of 2006??? It seems to me until we start to see more normal favorable conditions out there in the Atlantic instead of everything bunched up 2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

1. It's too early to declare "season cancel" yet. The historical facts are there. We could have an extremely active GOM season in September-October-November, despite the CV season being quiet thus far.

2. senorpepr is someone I read religiously. I'm sure he'll agree that the one thing you can't predict is the future with regards to our hurricane season. Climatology is one thing, but all it takes is one variation in upper level winds or SSTs and boom, we're all watching S2K lock up and hundreds if not thousands of us going "Holy Crap" all at once.

3. This season is still young. If we were at 5 storms on October 1, I would be relieved, but in my neck of the woods, not totally. There have been decades of history which demonstrate that tropical systems can hit the Caribbean and Florida throughout the October, November and yes, even December time frames. Give me SSTs of 65 degrees off my coast and THEN I'll relax.

For now, enjoy the show. You're in the middle of possibly one of the first measured historical peaks which could easily be offset by another mini-Ice Age or other factors in the decade to come.

We only have a little over 120 years of history to review. Give us 500 years of history to analyze and I'll bet the climatological analysis improves.

Thank God for sites like S2K. And thanks again to all the experts for their input, they are, for those that pay attention, lifesavers.

[marcane_1973]

...2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

Not likely, since with 4 storms at this point 2006 is slightly ahead of the average year.

You are very wrong my friend. We have not even had a minimal Hurricane yet and it is only about 10 days till September. I am sure that any Pro Met on here would back me up IF conditions do not change in the near future. It will not be THE slowest season on record but it will end up being a weird below average season if things do not change and quick. Time is running out.

[senorpepr]

...2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

Not likely, since with 4 storms at this point 2006 is slightly ahead of the average year.

You are very wrong my friend. We have not even had a minimal Hurricane yet and it is only about 10 days till September. I am sure that any Pro Met on here would back me up IF conditions do not change in the near future. It will not be THE slowest season on record but it will end up being a weird below average season if things do not change and quick. Time is running out.

My friend... we are not far behind normal for hurricanes and we are actually slightly ABOVE normal in terms of named storms. Furthermore... this CANNOT be the slowest season on record... we are ALREADY 400% above that record.


...and this is a pro met saying this...

[senorpepr]

...2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

Not likely, since with 4 storms at this point 2006 is slightly ahead of the average year.

You are very wrong my friend. We have not even had a minimal Hurricane yet and it is only about 10 days till September. I am sure that any Pro Met on here would back me up IF conditions do not change in the near future. It will not be THE slowest season on record but it will end up being a weird below average season if things do not change and quick. Time is running out.

My friend... we are not far behind normal for hurricanes and we are actually slightly ABOVE normal in terms of named storms. Furthermore... this CANNOT be the slowest season on record... we are ALREADY 400% above that record.


...and this is a pro met saying this...

I'm sorry... I just read that you said it wouldn't be THE slowest season... so strike my comments about that.

However... I maintain this: we are not far behind normal for hurricanes and we are actually slightly ABOVE normal in terms of named storms.

[marcane_1973]

...2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

Not likely, since with 4 storms at this point 2006 is slightly ahead of the average year.

You are very wrong my friend. We have not even had a minimal Hurricane yet and it is only about 10 days till September. I am sure that any Pro Met on here would back me up IF conditions do not change in the near future. It will not be THE slowest season on record but it will end up being a weird below average season if things do not change and quick. Time is running out.

My friend... we are not far behind normal for hurricanes and we are actually slightly ABOVE normal in terms of named storms. Furthermore... this CANNOT be the slowest season on record... we are ALREADY 400% above that record.


...and this is a pro met saying this...

I stated I am not saying that it will be the slowest just one of the slowest seasons if things do not change quick.

[quandary]

Actually, June, July and early August rarely see major canes. Last few years has been the exception not the rule.

[Brent]

...2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

Not likely, since with 4 storms at this point 2006 is slightly ahead of the average year.

You are very wrong my friend. We have not even had a minimal Hurricane yet and it is only about 10 days till September. I am sure that any Pro Met on here would back me up IF conditions do not change in the near future. It will not be THE slowest season on record but it will end up being a weird below average season if things do not change and quick. Time is running out.

My friend... we are not far behind normal for hurricanes and we are actually slightly ABOVE normal in terms of named storms. Furthermore... this CANNOT be the slowest season on record... we are ALREADY 400% above that record.


...and this is a pro met saying this...

I stated I am not saying that it will be the slowest just one of the slowest seasons if things do not change quick.

2001

First Hurricane and Major Hurricane Erin on September 9th

Ended up with 15/9/4

2002

First Hurricane Gustav September 11th
First Major Hurricane Isidore on September 19th

Ended up with 12/4/2

Both were above average...

Not every year will be like 2004 or 2005.

[LAwxrgal]

I agree with everything Senorpepr and others have said. I notice the average person believes that 2004 and 2005 were the norm in terms of hurricane activity -- and the media is partially to blame for this. They were not.

Both seasons were well above normal, particularly 2005. Most years don't see Dennis and Emily type storms in July. Most years don't have 11 named storms by the end of August.

When you look at 2004, the majority of the activity took place from August 1 (Alex) to late September (Jeanne). That's about a six or seven week period.

Of course last year the season both started and ended with a bang...heck there was even a 2005 storm in January of this year!

What I'm trying to say is this season is more of the norm, not the exception.

[marcane_1973]

...2006 may very well be one of the slowest seasons on record.

Not likely, since with 4 storms at this point 2006 is slightly ahead of the average year.

You are very wrong my friend. We have not even had a minimal Hurricane yet and it is only about 10 days till September. I am sure that any Pro Met on here would back me up IF conditions do not change in the near future. It will not be THE slowest season on record but it will end up being a weird below average season if things do not change and quick. Time is running out.

My friend... we are not far behind normal for hurricanes and we are actually slightly ABOVE normal in terms of named storms. Furthermore... this CANNOT be the slowest season on record... we are ALREADY 400% above that record.


...and this is a pro met saying this...

I'm sorry... I just read that you said it wouldn't be THE slowest season... so strike my comments about that.

However... I maintain this: we are not far behind normal for hurricanes and we are actually slightly ABOVE normal in terms of named storms.

No problem. Were all good here. I love this site. You would think by now we would have seen a minimal Hurricane in this active period we are in. I just feel that if conditions do not get looking any better out there that this season really could end up being a dud season as far as Hurricanes go. Maybe i should of reworded things differently. I just had my tonsils and adenoids taken out and i am on some strong pain medication. I am a little doped up right now. I feel that the numbers NOAA and Dr. Gray put out recently could end up being waaay lower than those predictions and have them all scratching their heads for 2006.

[senorpepr]

No problem. Were all good here. I love this site. You would think by now we would have seen a minimal Hurricane in this active period we are in. I just feel that if conditions do not get looking any better out there that this season really could end up being a dud season as far as Hurricanes go. Maybe i should of reworded things differently. I just had my tonsils and adenoids taken out and i am on some strong pain medication. I am a little doped up right now. I feel that the numbers NOAA and Dr. Gray put out recently could end up being waaay lower than those predictions and have them all scratching their heads for 2006.

Fair enough... enjoy the medicine!

Just relax... because statistically, the next few weeks will be busy. We're just getting into the heat of things.

[SouthFloridawx]

This whole 2006 is a slow seaon is really starting to become kind of annoying. We got Debby out there and 97L.. The TWO said conditions are favorable for development of a TD or a TS in the next day or so.

If by this weekend we have Ernesto.....

Senorpepr would be a good bit above average with Ernesto this weekend.

In fact I can not wait till the E and F storms form just simply for the fact that these threads will go away.

Sorry to sound mean but, I have seem umpteen number of threads saying the same thing in the past month or so.

[AussieMark]

near normal in named storms, but we are clearly below normal in canes and major canes, the important stat. if debby doesnt make it that will make 4 weak ts's and no canes. marcane makes a good point. condotions remain hostile at this point, as debby looks very bad right now

we are not that far behind

on average we see the first hurricane on August 14 and the second on August 30

on average we see first major on September 3 and the second on September 25

this is using climatology of 1944-2005

[Frank P]

Actually, June, July and early August rarely see major canes. Last few years has been the exception not the rule.

Camille August 1969..... Major Cat 5 Storm....

[Cyclenall]

Actually, June, July and early August rarely see major canes. Last few years has been the exception not the rule.

Camille August 1969..... Major Cat 5 Storm....