Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

Acral · #321 Postby **Acral** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:22 am

I don't like that product as things do not need to be swirling near me.

Johnny · #322 Postby **Johnny** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:24 am

Has wxman posted his thoughts lately on this blob? Did I skip over it?

beachbum_al · #323 Postby **beachbum_al** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 10:41 am

Acral wrote:I don't like that product as things do not need to be swirling near me.

I agree. That product brings the swirl just a little too close to home for us.

SarahINMobile · #324 Postby **SarahINMobile** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:13 am

I don't mean to be ignorant, but does a swirl on the NAM mean a tropical "storm"? Just wondered!

Sanibel · #325 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:22 am

There's a mid level swirl south of Cozumel moving into Yucatan. Nothing to shout about.

Think I'll quit this disturbance until it really shows something. Last night's flare was probably shear-induced over warm SST's.

Stratosphere747 · #326 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:27 am

The TWD's continue to explain the convection...

BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER
HIGH IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W NE ACROSS E CUBA TO
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IN THE W ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING ENOUGH
DIFFLUENCE OVER W CARIBBEAN TO GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N W OF 80W WITH
AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 17N-21N
BETWEEN 83W-97W.

Stormavoider · #327 Postby **Stormavoider** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 11:28 am

Sanibel wrote:There's a mid level swirl south of Cozumel moving into Yucatan. Nothing to shout about.

Think I'll quit this disturbance until it really shows something. Last night's flare was probably shear-induced over warm SST's.

I was just looking at that.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=19&lon=-84&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

#328 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 12:23 pm

I see the Mid level spin as well as it appears to be moving wnw into the Yucatan.

Yankeegirl · #329 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:08 pm

I wish it would just hurry up already!! I want some rain!!! :ggreen:

chrisnnavarre · #330 Postby **chrisnnavarre** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:09 pm

Maybe I'm seeing things but it looks like there is a circulation moving off the western end of Cuba into the SE GOM. Could this be what the 1200 NAM is picking up on? Is it mid-level? :?:

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

Stratosphere747 · #331 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:21 pm

Looks like the only circ out there is the MLC south of Cozumel moving into the Yucatan.

#332 Postby **Steve** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:23 pm

That 12z NAM run is odd. It almost looks like a winter storm really strung out as it approaches the LA coast at the end of the run. It shows the windfield (kinda) at 200mb, 300mb, 700mb and at the surface. There are also some height lines associated with the "spin" as it takes it toward the mouth of the Mississippi River. I wouldn't put much stock in it as it almost looks like a wandering cut off low or something.

Steve

#333 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:25 pm

I know one thing, if anything gets into the eastern Gulf and especially the NE Gulf it will be moving over JET FUEL as far as a TC goes.

This buoy south of Panama City had recent SST's of right at 89 degrees.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

tropicsgal05 · #334 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:26 pm

southerngale, i live in Ft. Walton Beach.

#335 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:28 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:I know one thing, if anything gets into the eastern Gulf and especially the NE Gulf it will be moving over JET FUEL as far as a TC goes.

This buoy south of Panama City had recent SST's of right at 89 degrees.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42039

Not to mention that loop current in the middle of the Gulf that spawned those two beasties last year....

tropicsgal05 · #336 Postby **tropicsgal05** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:30 pm

I apologize, didn't mean to post twice.

Stratosphere747 · #337 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:39 pm

NHC continues to see nothing at this time to cause immediate concern.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THERE ARE TWO MAIN AREAS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-23N
BETWEEN 81W-88W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PRODUCED MOSTLY BY UPPER
DIFFLUENCE IN THE REGION. SHIP AND BUOY OBS IN THE AREA SHOW
ISOLATED WINDS TO 30 KT IN THE DEEP CONVECTION. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...THE LARGE MASS OF CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY
WEAKENED WITH A NEW BURST JUST S OF CUBA. THIS AREA OF WEATHER
HAS BEEN MOVING N IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
BUT IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZING AND SFC PRESSURES ARE
RISING.

#338 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:40 pm

Will this be invest 98L in the comming days?

kjun · #339 Postby **kjun** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:15 pm

Is JB making any calls on these systems during the next week?? I have not heard much of him as of late.

Stratosphere747 · #340 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:17 pm

kjun wrote:Is JB making any calls on these systems during the next week?? I have not heard much of him as of late.

What the heck...

WGOM may have a problem!

Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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