Big setback for the Global warming folks

[caneman]

As KWT said, the trends certainly are pointing upwards. The 5 hottest recorded years in the Northern Hemisphere since reliable records began in the 1800's go as thus:

1) 2005
2) 1998
3) 2002
4) 2003
5) 2004

Do you notice a pattern here? Yeah it is only a 8 year stretch of time. If we're going to freak out about that then I suppose we should have freaked out about the 20-30 year uptick cycles in Hurricane activity throughout the years or for that matters when Countries go thru extreme drought periods does that mean that it will never rain again.. The only real fact in all this is that GW's wanted to use a very small stretch of time and claim that the sky is falling. I ask again where are the Cat. 6 storms, gonna have to get a lot of storms in the last several weeks to meet the dire/doom and gllom forecast of 20 or so Hurricanes in a season.

[curtadams]

As KWT said, the trends certainly are pointing upwards. The 5 hottest recorded years in the Northern Hemisphere since reliable records began in the 1800's go as thus:

1) 2005
2) 1998
3) 2002
4) 2003
5) 2004

Do you notice a pattern here? Yeah it is only a 8 year stretch of time. If we're going to freak out about that then I suppose we should have freaked out about the 20-30 year uptick cycles in Hurricane activity throughout the years or for that matters when Countries go thru extreme drought periods does that mean that it will never rain again.. The only real fact in all this is that GW's wanted to use a very small stretch of time and claim that the sky is falling. I ask again where are the Cat. 6 storms, gonna have to get a lot of storms in the last several weeks to meet the dire/doom and gllom forecast of 20 or so Hurricanes in a season.

It's about 150 years, not 8. The point is that all of the hottest years over the past 150 happened in the last 8 - and, incidentally, they were strikingly hot, too.

Where are you getting this Category 6 strawman? First, unlike GW itself, the link between hurricanes and GW isn't proven - although it is striking that Atlantic hurricane activity so closely parallels overall global temperatures. GW is happening, and carries substantial risk of catastrophe, even if it has diddly to do with hurricanes. Second, NOBODY said that last year was typical. NOBODY. My guestimate (I do think warming increases hurricanes substantially) is that last year would become typical in about 50 years. A reasonable estimate is that with 6 supermajors in 11 years we have about a 50% chance of a supermajor each year now - so even several years in a row without a monster is ordinary, even if GW is causing the hurricane surge. Besides, we've just started peak hurricane season.

[caneman]

As KWT said, the trends certainly are pointing upwards. The 5 hottest recorded years in the Northern Hemisphere since reliable records began in the 1800's go as thus:

1) 2005
2) 1998
3) 2002
4) 2003
5) 2004

Do you notice a pattern here? Yeah it is only a 8 year stretch of time. If we're going to freak out about that then I suppose we should have freaked out about the 20-30 year uptick cycles in Hurricane activity throughout the years or for that matters when Countries go thru extreme drought periods does that mean that it will never rain again.. The only real fact in all this is that GW's wanted to use a very small stretch of time and claim that the sky is falling. I ask again where are the Cat. 6 storms, gonna have to get a lot of storms in the last several weeks to meet the dire/doom and gllom forecast of 20 or so Hurricanes in a season.

It's about 150 years, not 8. The point is that all of the hottest years over the past 150 happened in the last 8 - and, incidentally, they were strikingly hot, too.

Where are you getting this Category 6 strawman? First, unlike GW itself, the link between hurricanes and GW isn't proven - although it is striking that Atlantic hurricane activity so closely parallels overall global temperatures. GW is happening, and carries substantial risk of catastrophe, even if it has diddly to do with hurricanes. Second, NOBODY said that last year was typical. NOBODY. My guestimate (I do think warming increases hurricanes substantially) is that last year would become typical in about 50 years. A reasonable estimate is that with 6 supermajors in 11 years we have about a 50% chance of a supermajor each year now - so even several years in a row without a monster is ordinary, even if GW is causing the hurricane surge. Besides, we've just started peak hurricane season.

Strawman? Are we resorting to name calling in place of conversation? I'll have to check the board rules on that. Interesting that you say the link between Hurricanes and GW isn't proven because when you listen to the GW's it seems it is a foregone conclusion already. Interesting that you think it increases Hurricanes substantially when the research I've read stated even if there were GW the affects on intensity would be minimal <5 mph. 6 majors in 11 years. You suppose that has happened at other points throughout history? When you say super major - Are you referring to the dreaded Cat. 6? What is a super major?

[Roxy]

Strawman:

2: a weak or sham argument set up to be easily refuted [syn: straw man]

[gtalum]

It's amusing to watch the ostrich crowd ("if I put my head in the sand I'll be okay!") display their lack of understanding of global warming. GLobal Warming does not mean the average temperatures will climb regularly from year to year. There will be drops and increases. However, when you look at the trend, the temperatures will increase over time.

[caneman]

Strawman:

2: a weak or sham argument set up to be easily refuted [syn: straw man]

I had heard the word before but it seemed a convenient play on words as it is getting a little heated in here. My apologies to Curt for taking it wrong. Thanks for the explanation.

[caneman]

It's amusing to watch the ostrich crowd ("if I put my head in the sand I'll be okay!") display their lack of understanding of global warming. GLobal Warming does not mean the average temperatures will climb regularly from year to year. There will be drops and increases. However, when you look at the trend, the temperatures will increase over time.

Ostrich crowd as opposed to the sky is falling crowd? I choose not to hyperventilate at alarism or every conspiracy theory. I'll wait it out and take in facts, sprinkle with some good ole - the World weather is constantly changing and Cyclical for many years on end wisdom. Thank you very much.

[x-y-no]

Boy oh boy did this thead ever go downhill overnight ...

[curtadams]

Interesting that you say the link between Hurricanes and GW isn't proven because when you listen to the GW's it seems it is a foregone conclusion already. Interesting that you think it increases Hurricanes substantially when the research I've read stated even if there were GW the affects on intensity would be minimal <5 mph.

There's substantial dispute in the scientific community about hurricanes and GW - as pointed out by a number of papers claiming no substantial connection - even though essentially all publishing researchers now agree with GW. The connection is observational - the number of Atlantic hurricanes closely tracks sea surface temperatures, which almost exactly track global temps. The fact that this is *not* predicted by current models (which predict a much milder effect) is one of the major arguments against a connection between GW and hurricane. IMO it's the models that are wrong.

6 majors in 11 years. You suppose that has happened at other points throughout history? When you say super major - Are you referring to the dreaded Cat. 6? What is a super major?

There is no Cat 6. I'm referring to the large Cat 5s with anamolously low pressure (<920) - recently Mitch, Isabel, Ivan, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma. It certainly hasn't happened in the past 50 years, and very probably not for the past 150 at least. Last year - with anamolously high SSTs even for our warmed world and a jawdropping 3 of them - suggests high SSTs have a lot to do with their formation, but we currently lack either the statistical association or a verified model to clinch the deal.

[HURAKAN]

Officially last year we had 4 Cat. 5 hurricanes. EMILY, KATRINA, RITA, & WILMA.

[curtadams]

:uarrow: Officially last year we had 4 Cat. 5 hurricanes. EMILY, KATRINA, RITA, & WILMA.

Yes, but Emily's pressure was only 929 - not very remarkable compared to the ones I mention. Her timing was a recordsetter but not her intensity per se.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Officially last year we had 4 Cat. 5 hurricanes. EMILY, KATRINA, RITA, & WILMA.

Yes, but Emily's pressure was only 929 - not very remarkable compared to the ones I mention. Her timing was a recordsetter but not her intensity per se.

The first time I see a 929 mb hurricane being discriminated!!!! I see your point!!!

[gtalum]

Ostrich crowd as opposed to the sky is falling crowd?

And then there are the rest of us, sensible in the middle. We acknowledge facts (the world is getting warmer, maybe we should figure out what's going on) rather than ignoring the facts or freaking out over them.

[Lindaloo]

This thread should not even be in this forum. Some just have to ruin it for others. Thread cancel.