Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

Stormavoider · #261 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:09 pm

Pardon my ignorance. SE of the little island south of west Cuba, there seems to be the first rotation I have seen in this system for a while. There is also convection firing on the island (NW) side of this rotation. Do we have something here?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-82&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

#262 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:11 pm

Good eyes! I'm not sure if that's actual rotation though. It might just be trick to the eyes with the cloud motion. If it is real, we should be able to notice it later.

#263 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:13 pm

I see what you're talking about but have no idea if it qualifies as a circulation. It's definately turning but it could be mid-level or upper-level, rather than surface.

Regit · #264 Postby **Regit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:13 pm

Yes, good eyes! I agree with sky, it could be a trick. We'll see how it looks with more frames.

BTW, the island is Isla de Juventud.

#265 Postby **Stormcenter** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:15 pm

Some serious storms down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

:eek:

#266 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:16 pm

Yes, the convection is still increasing. It looks like that northern blob and that southern blob are on the verge of joining.

#267 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:17 pm

Man if this is true, we may have something even closer to keep our eyes peeled for. The tropics have really begun to fire up. Maybe I need to take a vacation from following them, and they'll quiet down again.

#268 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:22 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Man if this is true, we may have something even closer to keep our eyes peeled for. The tropics have really begun to fire up. Maybe I need to take a vacation from following them, and they'll quiet down again.

I doubt that it will make it quieter. Although, statistically you're very unlikely to be hit by anything so (according to the statistical forecasting fans), you'll be fine. :-)

#269 Postby **LAwxrgal** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:27 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
LAwxrgal wrote:Man if this is true, we may have something even closer to keep our eyes peeled for. The tropics have really begun to fire up. Maybe I need to take a vacation from following them, and they'll quiet down again.

I doubt that it will make it quieter. Although, statistically you're very unlikely to be hit by anything so (according to the statistical forecasting fans), you'll be fine.

Actually, I did kinda sorta get hit last year by some big hurricane that killed lots of people in like 4 or 5 different states and flooded a big city and destroyed miles of coastline....yeah... (of course I got out of the way)...so you can imagine me being just a teensy bit more vigilant than usual.

Of course, we're not expecting this blob of clouds to develop into something like that big storm, we just have to keep our eyes on it, just like everything else in the tropics this time of year.

LaBreeze · #270 Postby **LaBreeze** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:33 pm

Local met stated tonight that the mess of moisture in the NW Carib. is something to keep an eye on and that it could get into our area and really increase our rain - just a wait and see situation, I presume. Anyone else hearing something along those lines from other local mets?

Johnny · #271 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:39 pm

This is an entire different ballgame than this time last night. If it's gonna fire off and become something, I think it should do it with this latest burst of convection....if it persist into tomorrow morning.

#272 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:44 pm

It sounds to me like over and over again I've heard local mets use the "Mess of moisture headed our way" followed by the "wait and see" game to clue their viewers in without causing panic.

Johnny, why is it a different ballgame, so-to-speak?

#273 Postby **tailgater** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:50 pm

Stormavoider wrote:Pardon my ignorance. SE of the little island south of west Cuba, there seems to be the first rotation I have seen in this system for a while. There is also convection firing on the island (NW) side of this rotation. Do we have something here?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-82&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

That's the Ilse of Youth I think, also that seems to be a mid level vortex form a earlier T-storm complex but with it begining to refire it might be something to watch.
The area where the coldest clould tops may be starting to get a twist to it too.

temujin · #274 Postby **temujin** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:52 pm

I guess I'm just not seeing any rotation. Looks like a bunch of storms to me.

#275 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:53 pm

Got some really cold tops out there right now. It's really blooming.

Johnny · #276 Postby **Johnny** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:53 pm

GP, maybe an entire different ballgame is a little far fetched. What I mean is that unlike last night convection is holding strong and then some tonight. I just don't see this completely dieing off by morning time but then again, what do I know? :cheesy:

#277 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:55 pm

temujin wrote:I guess I'm just not seeing any rotation. Looks like a bunch of storms to me.

You're right. That's why NHC hasn't said diddly about this yet. I just wonder if something will come out of the "soup". There is so much energy here that it wouldn't take much to get something started.

Stormavoider · #278 Postby **Stormavoider** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:56 pm

tailgater wrote:
Stormavoider wrote:Pardon my ignorance. SE of the little island south of west Cuba, there seems to be the first rotation I have seen in this system for a while. There is also convection firing on the island (NW) side of this rotation. Do we have something here?

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=20&lon=-82&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

That's the Ilse of Youth I think, also that seems to be a mid level vortex form a earlier T-storm complex but with it begining to refire it might be something to watch.
The area where the coldest clould tops may be starting to get a twist to it too.

Thanks,
Watching these things forces a geography education.

#279 Postby **GeneratorPower** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 11:58 pm

Johnny wrote:GP, maybe an entire different ballgame is a little far fetched. What I mean is that unlike last night convection is holding strong and then some tonight. I just don't see this completely dieing off by morning time but then again, what do I know?

Ah. That makes more sense. I agree with you that the convection is a lot stronger. Look at the cloud top temps. Good grief! Some of them are colder than Tropical Storm Ileana in the EPAC. Good strong convection, unlikely to die off completely. I don't see any of what I call "wispy" clouds that seem to preceed "poofing".

My science is rather anecdotal and my conclusions are not that reliable. But I can recognize good convection when I see it, at least.

southerngale · #280 Postby **southerngale** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 2:01 am

Convection quite strong this early morning.

Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

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