Tropical Depression Hector in EPAC
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
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Matt-hurricanewatcher
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 190833
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
THE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS...WITH TOPS TO -80C SEEN EAST OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM TAFB...
AND REMAIN 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BASED
ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 90 KT. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE LAST PACKAGE. HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 125-145W DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT
TIME. THE GFDN AND LBAR CALL FOR HECTOR TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER
THAT TIME...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE STORM REMAINS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HECTOR WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY 72 HR FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT...WITH THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HECTOR SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM WITHIN
12 HR...AND MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THEREAFTER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
CAUSE FASTER WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. NONE OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HECTOR TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY
120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR DISSIPATION BY
THAT TIME. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.4N 129.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 132.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.6N 133.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 20.3N 135.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 137.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTPZ44 KNHC 190833
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
THE EYE OF HECTOR HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS WAS ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING OF
THE CLOUD TOPS...WITH TOPS TO -80C SEEN EAST OF THE CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO 90 KT FROM TAFB...
AND REMAIN 102 KT AND 90 KT FROM AFWA AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. BASED
ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS NUDGED UPWARD TO 90 KT. THE
CIRRUS OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 290/11. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE
SYNOPTIC REASONING FROM THE LAST PACKAGE. HECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TOWARD A DEVELOPING WEAKNESS N OF 20N BETWEEN 125-145W DURING
THE NEXT 48-72 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE DIVERGES SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT
TIME. THE GFDN AND LBAR CALL FOR HECTOR TO TURN NORTHWARD AFTER
THAT TIME...WHICH IS POSSIBLE IF THE STORM REMAINS STRONGER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT HECTOR WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH BY 72 HR FOR LOW-LEVEL STEERING TO BECOME
PREDOMINANT...WITH THE CYCLONE TURNING WESTWARD AS SHOWN BY THE
NOGAPS AND THE GFDL. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK GOES WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
HECTOR SHOULD CROSS THE 26C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ISOTHERM WITHIN
12 HR...AND MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER THEREAFTER. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
48 HR. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD
CAUSE FASTER WEAKENING...WITH THE CYCLONE FORECAST TO BECOME A
DEPRESSION BY 72 HR AND A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. NONE OF THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HECTOR TO HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION BY
120 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR DISSIPATION BY
THAT TIME. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0900Z 17.4N 129.1W 90 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 130.7W 80 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.9N 132.5W 70 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 19.6N 133.9W 55 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 20.3N 135.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 137.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 23/0600Z 21.5N 140.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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cycloneye
- Admin
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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768
WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED
OVERNIGHT WITH A LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE. AN AQUA PASS AT 1030 UTC
SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME
INDICATION FROM THE LOW CLOUD LINES THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
COULD BE A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. T-NUMBERS
FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT. HECTOR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH LONGER
THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LONGER TRACK OVER WARMER WATER
AND LESS SHEAR THAN FORECAST. A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE
LATER TODAY AS SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE
WEAKENING COULD BE A LOT FASTER TOMORROW AS SSTS DROP BELOW 24C AND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
ABOVE SHIPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIAGNOSING TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE
NEAR-TERM REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...290/10... AND
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE MOVING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN RECENTLY SEEN. MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET
REMAIN THE NORTH/SOUTH OUTLIERS.. THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK HAS
WORKED OUT BETTER AS OF LATE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS A LEFTWARD
TURN IS FORESEEN DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SHALLOW NATURE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN BETWEEN
THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.7N 130.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 133.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.9N 134.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
WTPZ44 KNHC 191439
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY... THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS DETERIORATED
OVERNIGHT WITH A LOSS OF ANY EYE FEATURE. AN AQUA PASS AT 1030 UTC
SHOWS THE EYEWALL OPEN IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH SOME
INDICATION FROM THE LOW CLOUD LINES THAT THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION
COULD BE A LITTLE TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. T-NUMBERS
FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE DROPPING AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED
CONSERVATIVELY TO 85 KT. HECTOR HAS MAINTAINED STRENGTH LONGER
THAN INITIALLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO A LONGER TRACK OVER WARMER WATER
AND LESS SHEAR THAN FORECAST. A SLOW WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE
LATER TODAY AS SSTS COOL BELOW 26C AND SHEAR REMAINS LOW. THE
WEAKENING COULD BE A LOT FASTER TOMORROW AS SSTS DROP BELOW 24C AND
SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY MOST RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AND A LITTLE
ABOVE SHIPS WHICH SEEMS TO BE DIAGNOSING TOO MUCH SHEAR IN THE
NEAR-TERM REMINISCENT OF YESTERDAY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE...290/10... AND
THE LAST FEW SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE SYSTEM MIGHT BE MOVING
A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT THAN RECENTLY SEEN. MOST OF THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NOGAPS/UKMET
REMAIN THE NORTH/SOUTH OUTLIERS.. THOUGH THE SOUTHWARD TRACK HAS
WORKED OUT BETTER AS OF LATE. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS A LEFTWARD
TURN IS FORESEEN DUE TO ITS EXPECTED SHALLOW NATURE. THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... IN BETWEEN
THE UKMET AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/1500Z 17.7N 130.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 20/0000Z 18.3N 131.5W 75 KT
24HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 133.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/0000Z 19.9N 134.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 138.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1200Z 21.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 192026
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
HECTOR'S OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES RECENTLY SHOW A FAINT EYE
BREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS AT 1515 UTC SHOWED A SMALL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIRMING A SUSPICION FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS SEEN IN CIMSS ANALYSES...AND
DRY STABLE AIR WHICH HAS INVADED THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT...IN BETWEEN
THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS OUR USUAL
OPERATIONAL PRACTICE FOR WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES OVER
COOLER WATERS. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKER DEMISE TOMORROW AFTER HECTOR
ENCOUNTERS SSTS LESS THAN 24C AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN
25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS.
QUIKSCAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1500 UTC WERE VERY
HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING AN INITIAL MOTION...295/11. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MOST
MODELS CONTINUING ON A TRACK AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNAFFECTED BY A WEAK BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHILE THE NOGAPS BARRELS THE HURRICANE IN A NORTHWESTWARD
FASHION. WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONE...TRENDING SOUTH STILL SEEMS TO
BE A GOOD IDEA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ON THE BASIS OF A
1421 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS GENERAL WIND STRUCTURE IS CARRIED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HECTOR'S LIFE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.3N 131.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 192026
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 19 2006
HECTOR'S OVERALL CONVECTION LOOKS A LITTLE MORE DISORGANIZED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH VISIBLE IMAGES RECENTLY SHOW A FAINT EYE
BREAKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE
PASS AT 1515 UTC SHOWED A SMALL DISPLACEMENT OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTERS OF THE CYCLONE...CONFIRMING A SUSPICION FROM
THIS MORNING. THIS STRUCTURE IS PROBABLY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AS SEEN IN CIMSS ANALYSES...AND
DRY STABLE AIR WHICH HAS INVADED THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 75 KT...IN BETWEEN
THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB...WHICH IS OUR USUAL
OPERATIONAL PRACTICE FOR WEAKENING EASTERN PACIFIC CYCLONES OVER
COOLER WATERS. A STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICKER DEMISE TOMORROW AFTER HECTOR
ENCOUNTERS SSTS LESS THAN 24C AND WESTERLY WIND SHEAR GREATER THAN
25 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHIPS.
QUIKSCAT AND SSMIS MICROWAVE PASSES FROM AROUND 1500 UTC WERE VERY
HELPFUL IN ESTABLISHING AN INITIAL MOTION...295/11. RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WITH MOST
MODELS CONTINUING ON A TRACK AROUND 300 DEGREES FOR A DAY OR TWO.
THE UKMET CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE UNAFFECTED BY A WEAK BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE...WHILE THE NOGAPS BARRELS THE HURRICANE IN A NORTHWESTWARD
FASHION. WITH A WEAKENING CYCLONE...TRENDING SOUTH STILL SEEMS TO
BE A GOOD IDEA AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED ON THE BASIS OF A
1421 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS AND THIS GENERAL WIND STRUCTURE IS CARRIED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF HECTOR'S LIFE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/2100Z 18.3N 131.0W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/0600Z 19.0N 132.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 20/1800Z 19.8N 133.9W 50 KT
36HR VT 21/0600Z 20.5N 135.1W 35 KT
48HR VT 21/1800Z 21.0N 136.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 22/1800Z 21.5N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 23/1800Z 22.0N 143.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB
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bombarderoazul
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AussieMark
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146171
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
WTPZ44 KNHC 200830
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
AN ILL-DEFINED EYE WAS DETECTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES UP THROUGH
0600 UTC BUT IT IS GONE NOW...PERHAPS FOR GOOD. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.
HECTOR IS NOW OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR ON HECTOR. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH
DISSIPATION NOT LONG THEREAFTER.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 9 KT AS HECTOR NEARS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW....AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL
BEND TO THE LEFT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS.
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
HECTOR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 19.4N 132.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TCDEP4
HURRICANE HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
AN ILL-DEFINED EYE WAS DETECTABLE ON SATELLITE IMAGES UP THROUGH
0600 UTC BUT IT IS GONE NOW...PERHAPS FOR GOOD. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...HOWEVER BASED ON THE
DETERIORATING CLOUD PATTERN THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT.
HECTOR IS NOW OVER SUB-25 DEG C SSTS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
ANIMATION SHOWS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS TROUGH SHOULD IMPART INCREASING
WESTERLY SHEAR ON HECTOR. GIVEN THE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HECTOR IS LIKELY TO BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...WITH
DISSIPATION NOT LONG THEREAFTER.
THE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED TO AROUND 9 KT AS HECTOR NEARS A
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS IT IS EXPECTED THAT IT WILL BE STEERED MORE BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW....AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SHOWS A GRADUAL
BEND TO THE LEFT. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL
FORECAST...THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...THE U.K. MET. OFFICE...AND THE
NCEP GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACKS.
WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST QUIKSCAT PASS OVER
HECTOR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/0900Z 19.4N 132.6W 75 KT
12HR VT 20/1800Z 20.2N 133.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 135.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 21/1800Z 21.7N 136.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 22/0600Z 22.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 140.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146171
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
000
WTPZ44 KNHC 201438
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
A HELPFUL TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 1020 UTC SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF HECTOR HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER
PREVIOUSLY SEEN ON THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY... REQUIRING A SMALL
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL POSITION. RECENT SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTION
HAS SHIFTED EXCLUSIVELY TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...
CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPACTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM SAB/TAFB ARE DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. A FAST WEAKENING IS LIKELY
DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR... COLD SSTS DROPPING BELOW 24C...
AND PLENTY OF STABLE AIR AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE... CALLING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
TOMORROW.
THE MOTION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ABOUT 300/9. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT A DAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES MOST
OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THEREAFTER A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS
ANTICIPATED AS HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ONTO A
STRONG VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM FOR TOO LONG... LEADING TO A
NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN NORTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
STAY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO A
COMPOSITE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE... BAM SHALLOW... AND THE UKMET. THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TURN COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST IF THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.8N 133.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 134.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 21.3N 136.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
WTPZ44 KNHC 201438
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
A HELPFUL TRMM MICROWAVE PASS AT 1020 UTC SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER OF HECTOR HAS DECOUPLED FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER
PREVIOUSLY SEEN ON THE NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY... REQUIRING A SMALL
SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE INITIAL POSITION. RECENT SATELLITE
PICTURES SHOW THAT THE EYE FEATURE HAS DISSIPATED AND CONVECTION
HAS SHIFTED EXCLUSIVELY TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE STORM...
CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPACTS OF WESTERLY SHEAR. DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM SAB/TAFB ARE DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS THE RULES ALLOW AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 60 KT. A FAST WEAKENING IS LIKELY
DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR... COLD SSTS DROPPING BELOW 24C...
AND PLENTY OF STABLE AIR AS DIAGNOSED BY SHIPS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE... CALLING FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DISSIPATE
TOMORROW.
THE MOTION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS IS ABOUT 300/9. THIS GENERAL
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ABOUT A DAY UNTIL THE CYCLONE LOSES MOST
OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THEREAFTER A WEST-NORTHWEST TURN IS
ANTICIPATED AS HECTOR BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE
LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE HOLDING ONTO A
STRONG VERTICALLY-STACKED SYSTEM FOR TOO LONG... LEADING TO A
NORTHWESTWARD OR EVEN NORTHWARD MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
STAY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... CLOSE TO A
COMPOSITE OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE... BAM SHALLOW... AND THE UKMET. THE
WEST-NORTHWEST TURN COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN FORECAST IF THE CYCLONE
WEAKENS FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 20/1500Z 19.8N 133.5W 60 KT
12HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 134.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 21/1200Z 21.3N 136.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 22/0000Z 22.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 22/1200Z 22.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 23/1200Z 23.0N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
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AnnularCane
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cycloneye
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887
WTPZ44 KNHC 210242
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION MADE IT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF HECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A LATE ARRIVING AQUA MICROWAVE
OVERPASS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8 KT. HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES A WEAK
AND SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...
BUT TURNS BACK WESTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
DECREASING AS A RESULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40
KT. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AT A STEADY RATE DUE TO COLD WATER
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 20.9N 134.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
WTPZ44 KNHC 210242
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 PM PDT SUN AUG 20 2006
MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WEAKENING CONVECTION MADE IT
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF HECTOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...
WITHIN THE PAST HOUR OR TWO CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO CLEAR AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE CENTER IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTWARD THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE CENTER IS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE REMAINING
CONVECTION...WHICH IS CONFIRMED BY A LATE ARRIVING AQUA MICROWAVE
OVERPASS.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/8 KT. HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY BECOMES A WEAK
AND SHALLOW SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO RIGHT IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL MOTION...
BUT TURNS BACK WESTWARD THEREAFTER...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK. THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE SHALLOW BAM MODEL.
CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE
DECREASING AS A RESULT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40
KT. WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AT A STEADY RATE DUE TO COLD WATER
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HECTOR IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0300Z 20.9N 134.6W 40 KT
12HR VT 21/1200Z 21.6N 135.6W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 22/0000Z 22.3N 136.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 22/1200Z 22.8N 138.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/0000Z 23.2N 139.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/0000Z 23.5N 142.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 146171
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- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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356
WTPZ44 KNHC 211430
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. HOWEVER DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER... AND
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM ALOFT COULD EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN THE CONVECTION... SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 35
KT. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HOURS DUE
TO THE STORM CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
OF COLD WATER AND HIGH SHEAR.
THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT SOME MODELS HAD FORECAST FOR DAYS
FINALLY MATERIALIZED LATE YESTERDAY... PERHAPS DUE TO AN
INTERACTION OF HECTOR WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... NOW ALMOST ALL OF THE BETTER MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. GIVEN THAT BAM SHALLOW IS STILL NORTH OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NORTH OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BAM SHALLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.8N 135.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 22.2N 136.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.6N 137.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.9N 138.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z 23.2N 140.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
The final epilog for the system is getting very close.
WTPZ44 KNHC 211430
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
HECTOR IS BARELY HANGING ON THIS MORNING WITH ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT NEAR AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. HOWEVER DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE JUST A LITTLE LOWER... AND
TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FROM ALOFT COULD EASILY BE BROUGHT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE IN THE CONVECTION... SO THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN 35
KT. DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED IN 12-24 HOURS DUE
TO THE STORM CONTINUING TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT
OF COLD WATER AND HIGH SHEAR.
THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THAT SOME MODELS HAD FORECAST FOR DAYS
FINALLY MATERIALIZED LATE YESTERDAY... PERHAPS DUE TO AN
INTERACTION OF HECTOR WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE
WEST OF THE STORM. HOWEVER... NOW ALMOST ALL OF THE BETTER MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS...
SHOWING A WEAKER SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALMOST IMMEDIATELY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. GIVEN THAT BAM SHALLOW IS STILL NORTH OF THE
OTHER GUIDANCE AS WELL AS NORTH OF OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE...AND IS IN BETWEEN THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND BAM SHALLOW.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/1500Z 21.8N 135.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0000Z 22.2N 136.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
24HR VT 22/1200Z 22.6N 137.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 23/0000Z 22.9N 138.6W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1200Z 23.2N 140.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/1200Z 23.5N 144.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
The final epilog for the system is getting very close.
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cycloneye
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WTPZ44 KNHC 212035
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 PM PDT MON AUG 21 2006
A 15Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT HECTOR WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED...WITH SEVERAL BELIEVABLE 40 KT VECTORS...AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO REFLECT THIS.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS VERY LIMITED CONVECTION AND HECTOR IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPIN DOWN OVER 23C WATERS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS
STRONG AND NOT FORECAST TO ABATE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6. HECTOR HAS APPARENTLY BEEN MAINTAINING
ENOUGH CONVECTION FOR THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO DEFLECT THE MOTION TO
THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AS THIS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
DECAY...A LEFTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS GUIDANCE...WITH MOST OF THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOWING A MORE ABRUPT WESTWARD TURN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/2100Z 22.3N 135.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 22.8N 136.2W 30 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 23.3N 137.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
36HR VT 23/0600Z 23.5N 139.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 23/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 24/1800Z 24.0N 145.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
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Let's hope he takes his sweet time to weaken more so that he can rack up some more ACE.Who is online
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