Western Caribbean Disturbance ,Sat Pics,Models Thread(GOM)#2

[Wx_Warrior]

From accuweather

There are a few other features to keep an eye on in the Atlantic basin over the next few days. The most impressive one is over the western Caribbean, where thunderstorms are clustering along a tropical wave near 85 west, south of 20 north. The wave is moving west at about 10 knots, and will affect the Yucatan Peninsula with thunderstorms through tomorrow. There are still a couple of computer models that indicate that a depression could form in the Bay of Campeche or central Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days from this feature.

[ROCK]

From accuweather

There are a few other features to keep an eye on in the Atlantic basin over the next few days. The most impressive one is over the western Caribbean, where thunderstorms are clustering along a tropical wave near 85 west, south of 20 north. The wave is moving west at about 10 knots, and will affect the Yucatan Peninsula with thunderstorms through tomorrow. There are still a couple of computer models that indicate that a depression could form in the Bay of Campeche or central Gulf of Mexico in the next couple of days from this feature.

interesting...I was high on this system yesterday, actually overly excited about it. ......wait and see....

[Stormavoider]

There is some movement of the low clouds in the Yucatan straits that looks interesting.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21.5&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The area in the southern Gulf will be an area of a possible tropical system in about 5-7 days.

[ROCK]

There is some movement of the low clouds in the Yucatan straits that looks interesting.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21.5&lon=-86&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=6&palette=ir.pal

disorganized attm.....Storms spitting out OB's all over the place....Fixin to lose day time heating......this could dissapate overnight like last night.....

[ROCK]

The area in the southern Gulf will be an area of a possible tropical system in about 5-7 days.

seems to me, I notice a model ( don't know which one) showed the current central ALT moving through the carib and up Yuc channel...It was only one model and it was way way out there...

[caneman]

The area in the southern Gulf will be an area of a possible tropical system in about 5-7 days.

Would the pattern favor W.Gom of E. Gom at that time?

[Dean4Storms]

Not much to say? We have a nice depression in the far east Atlantic and an area of persistant convection in the western Carribean. We do have a little to discuss.

I really meant that specifically towards this system...although I'm not too excited about TD#4 either just yet. We'll see on that one...

Hey now there were alot of folks that were not so excited about that disappating TD well east of Florida before it became Andrew.

Good point bud, on beer number 3 btw

You don't get too carried away with them Brewkies!

I forgot tell you that they also give them beer bellies!

[Dean4Storms]

One thing to note tonight. It was roughly an hours or so ago at the same time yesterday when the convection from yesterday dissapated, I'm not seeing the disappation tonight as was the case last evening. If anything it apears that convection is growing and even re-firing over the same areas. A marked difference from yesterday at this time.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Looking good. Does anyone have a shear tendency map?

[ROCK]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/avn-l.jpg

Looking good. Does anyone have a shear tendency map?

ask you shall recieve.....


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[HurricaneHunter914]

Thanks ROCK. Conditions should be somewhat favorable for development though.

[skysummit]

Yup...the gulf is looking better and better for development. I think this will be a player in the next few days. I also think the wave in the Central Atlantic will become problematic in the next week or so.

[ROCK]

Thanks ROCK. Conditions should be somewhat favorable for development though.

yep, like Dean said not disappating like last night also......lets see if it lasts....

[Bailey1777]

If it's possible where would you put the center(I use that word loosely)at?

[KatDaddy]

There is alot of energy over the NW Caribbean just waiting for a release. It will be an interesting few days

[fwbbreeze]

its getting a little breezy around the disturbance!

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[Stormavoider]

ESE @ 25.3 gust to29

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056

[ROCK]

If it's possible where would you put the center(I use that word loosely)at?

I don't think you can place a center attm. Just a bunch of disorganized storms probably enhanced by the ULL to its west.....

[Stormavoider]

Dooh! ya beat be to it!