TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Trugunzn]

[storms in NC]

And they know this for sure?

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Of course not, but don't tell tell them that

[skysummit]

And they know this for sure?

NO...they said "expected".

[Grease Monkey]

CNN Headline News just announced that this storm is expected to stay out to sea and not threaten the US.

What? What are they thinking? Fishies don't sell. They needed to say something like too early to tell where it may go. U.S. don't let your guard down. Now that would sell and get attention.

[GeneratorPower]

And they know this for sure?

Unfortunately for the general public, CNN and most other news agencies get their weather info from the Associated Press and Reuters.

Neither CNN nor the AP/Reuters have any understanding at all about tropical weather systems. They just spit out whatever the uninformed journalist writes. This journalist is likely poorly educated when it comes to weather.

If you like out-of-date, partial information relayed through three or four sets of uninformed journalists, pick a news outlet. If you like accurate info, pick the National Hurricane Center's website and scour the discussion for real info.

I'm preaching to the choir, I know.

[CrazyC83]

My prediction: Slow, steady intensification. No threat to land once past Cape Verde. I am in general agreement with the NHC, but I think it will intensify a bit more...but nothing terribly rapid.

[gatorcane]

I like the UKMET and NOGAPS solution which take the remnants west. The reason is that it will be moving over cooler SSTs and into some African Dust that will start to erode the convection. We have seen it happen many times before in the past couple of weeks.

[ConvergenceZone]

LOL, oh my god, that reminds me, I remember a couple of years ago (I can't remember what storm it was), but there was a depression and it was getting ready to hit the gulf states, and the journalist said "Do you feel this will cause as much damage as Andrew" and the foreaster laughed and said "no" then the female newslady said "and why is that?" she seemed like she couldn't figure out why the depression wouldn't be as bad as Andrew.

Anyway, I'm probably being too hard on her, but geez!!!!

[aquifer]

Neither CNN nor the AP/Reuters have any understanding at all about tropical weather systems. They just spit out whatever the uninformed journalist writes. This journalist is likely poorly educated when it comes to weather.

Then again, some journalists get all their information from Storm2K ...

In practice, though, most journalists who write about tropical depressions/storms/hurricanes simply call up the National Hurricane Center and talk to the meteorologists, who are both extremely helpful and very clear in explaining what's happening. I suspect that's the source of CNN's information, either directly or through the AP.

You are correct that few newspaper or wire service reporters have any formal meteorology training. It's different for TV, of course.

[Jim Hughes]

TDs are upgraded far more freuqently near land. This is done all of the time near the USA. Grace for example never would have been upgraded in the open Atlantic

you still didnt answer the question... if thats the case, then why didnt they upgrade 93L??? more people would have been in harms way.. not to mention the boating intrests... it was there for days and with out question had a surface circulation... not sure i follow your logic


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

This is exactly what crossed my mind also. I have not heard any other MET chime in so I am going to believe that Derek and his shipmate stand alone here. Which is fine . They have a right to have an opinion.

[storms in NC]

It may go more to the west before it turns to the nw. If you look at the 5 day it has it going back to the west more. JMO

[bob rulz]

LOL, oh my god, that reminds me, I remember a couple of years ago (I can't remember what storm it was), but there was a depression and it was getting ready to hit the gulf states, and the journalist said "Do you feel this will cause as much damage as Andrew" and the foreaster laughed and said "no" then the female newslady said "and why is that?" she seemed like she couldn't figure out why the depression wouldn't be as bad as Andrew.

Anyway, I'm probably being too hard on her, but geez!!!!

Hahah. That's funny.

[Evil Jeremy]

its still a TD, so things can still change, just like chris.

[storms in NC]

going due west don't see any wobbles to the north at all

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Derek Ortt]

no doubt that this TD is becoming better organized this evening and very well could be a TS before impacting CV

[skysummit]

no doubt that this TD is becoming better organized this evening and very well could be a TS before impacting CV

LOL...and earlier you said there's no way you'd call it a TD!

[Extremeweatherguy]

going due west don't see any wobbles to the north at all

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I agree with that statement. I guess we will just have to wait and see if it is a trend or not. If so, then may be the NHC will bring their track further south and west.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

no doubt that this TD is becoming better organized this evening and very well could be a TS before impacting CV

LOL...and earlier you said there's no way you'd call it a TD!

[Derek Ortt]

At this rate, I would call this a TS at 11, no doubt about it. Convection is concentrating near the center now.

My earlier forecast was a bust, plain and simple