TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060821 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 1800 060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 21.0W 13.4N 23.2W 14.7N 25.2W 16.4N 27.4W
BAMM 12.3N 21.0W 13.6N 23.1W 15.3N 25.3W 17.3N 27.6W
A98E 12.3N 21.0W 12.9N 23.1W 13.6N 25.4W 14.7N 27.8W
LBAR 12.3N 21.0W 13.1N 23.3W 14.4N 25.7W 15.7N 28.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 29.7W 22.1N 34.3W 25.3N 38.5W 28.0N 42.4W
BAMM 19.5N 30.1W 23.3N 35.2W 26.6N 40.2W 29.9N 44.3W
A98E 16.4N 30.3W 19.0N 36.0W 22.3N 41.7W 26.7N 46.2W
LBAR 17.0N 30.5W 19.5N 35.4W 22.1N 40.0W 24.8N 43.9W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 58KTS 53KTS
DSHP 54KTS 59KTS 58KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 21.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 19.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 16.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[WmE]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060821 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 1800 060822 0600 060822 1800 060823 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.3N 21.0W 13.4N 23.2W 14.7N 25.2W 16.4N 27.4W
BAMM 12.3N 21.0W 13.6N 23.1W 15.3N 25.3W 17.3N 27.6W
A98E 12.3N 21.0W 12.9N 23.1W 13.6N 25.4W 14.7N 27.8W
LBAR 12.3N 21.0W 13.1N 23.3W 14.4N 25.7W 15.7N 28.0W
SHIP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 49KTS
DSHP 30KTS 37KTS 44KTS 49KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 1800 060824 1800 060825 1800 060826 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 18.3N 29.7W 22.1N 34.3W 25.3N 38.5W 28.0N 42.4W
BAMM 19.5N 30.1W 23.3N 35.2W 26.6N 40.2W 29.9N 44.3W
A98E 16.4N 30.3W 19.0N 36.0W 22.3N 41.7W 26.7N 46.2W
LBAR 17.0N 30.5W 19.5N 35.4W 22.1N 40.0W 24.8N 43.9W
SHIP 54KTS 59KTS 58KTS 53KTS
DSHP 54KTS 59KTS 58KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.3N LONCUR = 21.0W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 19.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 11.3N LONM24 = 16.7W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 225NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Derek Ortt]

This is a TD... looks like I am working on a forecast, which I am not very happy writing

[WmE]

This is a TD... looks like I am working on a forecast, which I am not very happy writing

Yeah I understand you Derek. It doesn't look like one.

[beachbum_al]

OMG!!!!!!HERE WE GOING WITH THE WOBBLES AND CRAP!PLEASE LET'S ISSUE A WOBBLE ALERTS SO IT WILL MAKE EVERYONE HERE ON THIS BOARD HAPPY!!!!!!!!!!THIS IS STARTING TO GET REAL CRAZY WITH THE WOBBLE CRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Wobble wobble they don't fall down. Whatever those little creatures from my childhood were called. I am sorry but I had to throw that in. When I saw that I immediately thought of the weeble wobble people.

Back to the subject. Now a TD? I must had missed something.

[wxboy222]

They are running models on TD 4. This is from the hurricane center.

Source: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/06082118

[craptacular]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR (AL042006) ON 20060821 1800 UTC

Where do you find that? On the NHC site?

[wxboy222]

this data was on the Ohio State twister server. dedicated NOAA Port feed.

[Scott_inVA]

This is a TD... looks like I am working on a forecast, which I am not very happy writing

Yeah I understand you Derek. It doesn't look like one.

Yeah, it just went to NONAME 4...TD classification is pending.

Scott

[SouthFloridawx]

Dispite some of the lack of convection.... this has a fairly good satelite appearance.

[temujin]

Dispite some of the lack of convection.... this has a fairly good satelite appearance.

Not as "tight" as it was earlier, but it's added some bulk. It looked like it was heading NW earlier, now I'm not so sure. But I have novice eyes.

[dwg71]

I'm always leary of storms this close the coast.... I'll take a wait and see approach, that far away landfall in CONUS would be around Thanksgiving

[Derek Ortt]

It may have been classified since it is an iminent threat to land, to a very vulnerable region

[Windsurfer_NYC]

It may have been classified since it is an iminent threat to land, to a very vulnerable region

By land you mean the Cape Verde Islands?

[WmE]

It may have been classified since it is an iminent threat to land, to a very vulnerable region

By land you mean the Cape Verde Islands?

Yes they are very prone to floodings.

[Brent]

We just have to get Debby out of this now.

[Trugunzn]

[Wthrman13]

Looks like a reasonable decision to me. It has a well defined circulation with decent banding. Convection is a little lacking near the center, but many many TD's have had disorganized convection like this.

[Jim Hughes]

So a Cape Verde TD forms right on the heels, 48 hours, of the most extended and strongest geomagnetic storm since September 2005. Solar flaring has also increased recently to go along with the healthier looking conditions for the ATL.

There were 57 C-class solar flares and five M-Class during all of 2006 up until August 15th 2006. ( M-Class flares are stronger and it increase exponnentially. X-Class are the strongest.)

There have been 15 C-Class flares during the past six days and nine of these have occured during the past two days.

So during the the first 227 days of 2006 the daily average was about .25 C-Class flares per day and the past six days average is 2.5

This recent average is almost a 10-1 ratio if you exclude the five M-Class flares. I could go on with some other increases involving energettic particle data also but I believe that I have made my point. Space weather is very important here and I continually showed this time and time again last season. On many fronts.

BTW forum rules keep me from positng URL's to other places. DO a Google search for PET Cycle and Jim Hughes. This is just another example of how space weather effects out weather/climate.

[MiamiensisWx]

Although some of the convective activity has waned due to mid-level SAL intrusion, the mid-level SAL over and to the north and northwest of the system is showing some signs of slowly moderating; that, along with the depression's large size and organization, may allow maintenance of the system's structure and allow slow and gradual organization due to periodic convective bursts and organization gradually occurring. This process in the early stages is evidenced in current SAL imagery, as the SAL layer at the middle levels slowly moderates a bit. Even with a newer burst of mid-level SAL exiting the African coastline, the moderation of mid-level SAL to the northwest may allow gradual organization of the depression, allowing development and to offset the newer burst of mid-level SAL exiting the coastline.

Current solar activity, as mentioned per Jim, may also allow and support gradual development of the depression, along with the other synoptics and factors I mentioned above.