TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

['CaneFreak]

Derek,

The models are all based off the GFS. If one looks at the 850mb winds on that model, they are mainly E-W. Only if this system deepens and becomes vertically stacked, will it get caught in that weakness GFS is developing. And, even then, I'm thinking the GFS is prematurely recurving 96L, tainting the model guidance.

THANK YOU...thank you very much....I agree...Derek himself has posted this many times....all hurricane models are based off of the GFS...and the GFS sees this thing moving WNW RIGHT NOW...and we all know its not...so lets just see what happens later on in future runs....

[Derek Ortt]

the weakness is expected to be very deep, assuming it verifies.

Therefore, no matter what happens, this is likely out of here. Remember Chris, it went more north when it was shallow, and the forecast from BAMS indicates the same thing with this broad low

[Derek Ortt]

This IS moving WNW at the very least, if not NW already. I was looking at 15 minute metsat data at HRD about an hour ago, and this one is moving north of west, without a doubt

[Regit]

This IS moving WNW at the very least, if not NW already. I was looking at 15 minute metsat data at HRD about an hour ago, and this one is moving north of west, without a doubt

I was about to post the same thing. The last few images even look like a jog NNW, though this is likely exaggerated by the eyes because of clouds moving out toward the NNW and N. But still, it's certainly N of W.

[Jim Cantore]

Good, Hopefully if it forms it will be a fish.

[Derek Ortt]

dont even think it will affect the CV Islands significantly since it is not intensifying at all

[Jim Cantore]

How much chance do you give it Derek?

[clfenwi]

from the 2:05 PM Tropical Weather Discussion

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE AFRICAN COAST...NOW
ALONG 21W WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N. AT 12Z...IT
WAS ANALYZED AT 1011 MB. THIS WAVE IS PROBABLY THE MOST
VIGOROUS IN THE E ATLC SO FAR THIS YEAR. CONVECTION HAS
DECREASED SOME FROM THIS MORNING BUT REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN AN BANDED FEATURE WHICH WRAPS
TWO-THIRDS AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
FOUND S OF THE LOW FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 19W-25W. THIS AREA MAY
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT MOVES WNW AT 10-15 KT. ONE OF THE POSSIBLE LIMITING FACTORS
FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS THE LARGE AREA OF DUST TO THE N AND W
OF THE LOW...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF A
FACTOR IT WILL BE.

[Sanibel]

Good organization, but I think it just took in a big gulp of Saharan dry dust.

[Derek Ortt]

I give this wave maybe a 5% chance of developing (This would dvelop into a TC 1 out of 20 times). It really needed to move more to the west to stay out of the SAL

[NONAME]

Isn't this wave going threw the Durinal Minimum right now though

[Thunder44]

Dvorak T numbers have increased:

21/1730 UTC 12.1N 21.1W T1.5/1.5 96L

Banding features appear more evident this afternoon.

[temujin]

I think the NW movement is just a wobble.


No seriously, this thing does seem to be moving NW.

[mike815]

lol it will generaly move off to the wnw to eventually i guess nw its still in its developemental stages so i guess the wobble stuff has started already lol

[NONAME]

Also I dont know if anyone pointed this out but the GFDL brings 96L up to a Cat 3 at 114hours out.

[miamicanes177]

I agree that this has a 5% chance at best.

[mike815]

really cat 3 now wow very bullish isnt it.

[hurricanefloyd5]

OMG!!!!!!HERE WE GOING WITH THE WOBBLES AND CRAP!PLEASE LET'S ISSUE A WOBBLE ALERTS SO IT WILL MAKE EVERYONE HERE ON THIS BOARD HAPPY!!!!!!!!!!THIS IS STARTING TO GET REAL CRAZY WITH THE WOBBLE CRAP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[mike815]

i agree i just posed about that no reason for the wobble stuff

[clfenwi]

Also I dont know if anyone pointed this out but the GFDL brings 96L up to a Cat 3 at 114hours out.

It brings the winds at the 950 mb level to 101 knots at that time period. The actual surface wind would be a fair bit less than that (probably around 80 knots).