TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[storms in NC]

Was just looking at the wvloop and you can see when it came off the coast it was more north and then droped south and to the west. It may follow the wave in front of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Lowpressure]

I think any threat to the US East Coast is remote at best from this system, if it develops soon. Models are pretty much guessing until they pin point a LLC to use as a point of origin.

[cycloneye]

And Thunder44 plows into the 1026 high but as a weak system.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS run update ...

It has our system still as a 1012mb low, up around 22N 34W or so.


Interestingly, it's starting to develop the leading wave as well ... showing another 1012mb low with a stacked mid-level low around 12N 47W or so ...


EDIT forgot to say ... that's at 66 hours

[southerngale]

I don't understand the comment about the change in models, now not turning it north??? Can you post a before/after comparison to help illustrate?

Loop of SAL from NRL shows it the dust moving west, with no new dust coming off the coast of Africa.

Someone a few pages back (sorry, I can't find it now) made the comment the board is going to get really busy. That's TRUE! Let's try to post pics, models, observations, and theories backed up by SOMETHING (besides warm fuzzy feelings or cold anxiety), and refrain from all the 'me too' and 'I agree' type posts. What if all 8000 members did that? Or even 1%, 80? We would all give up trying to read a thread!
Thanks.

Excellent!

A little reminder that everyone should read...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=85432

Please take 2 minutes to read it.

[ThunderMate]

If the LLC reaches the longitude of the cape verdes islands at the same latitude then it will already have taken a more westward track than predicted by the models.

[brunota2003]

I highly doubt the models right now...while they are fun to look at and they can hint at things, right now there really isnt much of a center for them to cue in on...I believe the models will shift once we get a LLC center established, however the shift may not be much depending on how strong the storm is/gets and where the break in the ridge occurs and whether or not that break stays there...the next few days will determine where the system goes and should be interesting...I will put my money down on a "lets wait and see" situation currently IMHO...

EDIT: This is backed up by the fact that we currently do not know where the LLC center is, if there is one at all

[wxman57]

Fairly tight model consensus:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby5.gif

Static models (BAMD, BAMM, BAMS) are to the right of the dynamic models, but they're all in very good agreement. Now if development does NOT occur, then I agree, a more westward track would be in order. But then, it'll just be another wave like the two ahead of it - embedded in a large dust cloud. Probably wouldn't develop until if/when it reaches the central to western Caribbean in 8-10 days.

Here's a recent close-up. Convection is weakening near the MLC. Can't find any evidence of an LLC through surface obs.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby4.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

12Z GFS run is just beginning to come out ...
It initializes a 1012mb low SE of the Cape Verdes and carries it WNW into the southern part of the islands in 24 hours. Deepens it to 1008mb by 30 hours as the system leaves the islands, still heading WNW.
Don't think I buy that much of a northerly component right away.

I would have to agree... Currently there is no weakness in the ridge and until that point we should be looking at a WNW movement for the next 24-72 hours.
What is expected to weaken the ridge a Mid-Upper Level trough?
This is all going to depend on the intensity of this system. If it develops quickly it will move more northerly trying to find the weakest point in the ridge in the mid to upper levels.
If it remains a depression or just a mid to low level weak storm, we should see a more westerly component.
I'm not a huge fan of saying which way it goes before it even develops. It is way to early. I have seen time and time again of these systems in the tropics where all the models indicate northward motion fairly quickly that never comes to surpass.
I think untill there is a weakness in the ridge we'll see the models trend farther and farther west.

If this continues to happen will this be a threat to US east coast in the future?

It's not if it continues... it is the fact that personally I'm waiting to see the evolution of the breakdown of the ridge. If it occurs as the models indicate and the system is significant it will find the weakness in the ridge and shoot the gap. (football terminology)

If this weakness does not evolve it will stay on a more wnw course.

If the system remains weak it will stay in the low level flow. I'm not too sure how this will all play out.

[Lowpressure]

Signature looks pretty good, but Northern half is losing convection at a pretty good clip. If is loses all northern integrity, it will gulp dry/dusty air, then it is over. It needs to protect itself soon.

[ThunderMate]

Ok, lets say the wave developes and starts to take the weakness in the ridge...once it reaches about 25 N and 45 W, will the ridge build back in and push it back west or would it just continue on a beline for bermuda?? All of the models are basically taking it dead NW and never N but a little more W near the end of the runs.

[x-y-no]

12Z GFS update ... out to 102 hours ...

The closed low on the lead wave was short-lived, it's opened up to a wave again.

96L is still just a 1012mb low way out to sea ... 25N 43W or so.


EDIT: Oh, and ... another 1012mb low trucking along down around 35W ...

[Weatherfreak14]

oh ok I see SFwx. Thanks. In another words. If the ridge weakens this will be a most likely a fish. If it holds it will be in a WNW track and also possibly be a fish.

[wxman57]

One other note. With the current position so far north (near 12N), it would take a heading of 277 degrees to clip the northern Caribbean islands. That's west, not WNW. A WNW heading (282.5 deg) would take the system no closer than 250 nm. north of the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Odds are very much in favor of this not being a Caribbean threat, particularly if it develops east of the islands.

[x-y-no]

One other note. With the current position so far north (near 12N), it would take a heading of 277 degrees to clip the northern Caribbean islands. That's west, not WNW. A WNW heading (282.5 deg) would take the system no closer than 250 nm. north of the islands of the eastern Caribbean. Odds are very much in favor of this not being a Caribbean threat, particularly if it develops east of the islands.

No argument there. I was only expressing doubt at a track as immediately northerly as the GFS has it - straight through the southern Cape Verdes.

[bvigal]

This isn't surprising based upon 11:30 TWO, but wanted to include for those who wish to see it. TAFB has now added a possible formation area.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/dan ... testBW.gif

[storms in NC]

Floyd deloped at 15.2north and 47.5 west on sept 7 1999. So see it is hard to say if this one would be a fish or not.

[willjnewton]

can someone please show me another updated most recently Infared colorful picture of this wave thats Updated because I want to see if this wave has changed alot INSTEAD of Visible shots??please explain okay, thankyou

[canegrl04]

OMG OMG OMG A storm developing

[Weatherfreak14]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


Heres the link to the Infared (colorful) satilite. Visble ones are actual shot of the storms clouds and is used for very imporant things, as well as infared.