TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

21/1200 UTC 11.9N 20.4W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Thunder44]

613
WHXX01 KWBC 211302
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060821 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 1200 060822 0000 060822 1200 060823 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.2N 20.3W 12.9N 22.6W 14.1N 24.8W 15.7N 27.0W
BAMM 12.2N 20.3W 13.2N 22.5W 14.4N 24.7W 16.3N 27.0W
A98E 12.2N 20.3W 12.8N 22.8W 13.4N 25.4W 14.4N 27.9W
LBAR 12.2N 20.3W 13.0N 22.7W 14.2N 25.1W 15.4N 27.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 1200 060824 1200 060825 1200 060826 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.5N 29.3W 21.3N 33.9W 23.8N 37.9W 25.7N 42.1W
BAMM 18.4N 29.5W 22.2N 34.4W 24.8N 39.2W 27.3N 44.0W
A98E 16.0N 30.4W 18.6N 35.9W 21.6N 41.2W 25.1N 45.6W
LBAR 16.8N 30.1W 19.4N 35.2W 22.0N 40.1W 27.1N 45.3W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 53KTS 53KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 53KTS 53KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 20.3W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 11.6N LONM12 = 18.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 10.8N LONM24 = 15.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like 99.99% fish on this one. There's a major break in the ridge to the north between 25W-35W. Not much chance of this one missing it. Also, there's a huge dust cloud all around it extending almost to the Caribbean. It seems to be just outside the cloud, but some dust is beign drawn into it from the northwest.

Looks most of that dust is bypassing it to the North and East:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Wind Shear seems very low in the area, so I don't see much that would prevent it from developing today.

I agree, this should be a depression by late tonight/tomorrow morning.
stupid dust cloud....arghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!! Oh well, maybe it will be a fighter and survive that...

[redmosquito]

Looks like 99.99% fish on this one. There's a major break in the ridge to the north between 25W-35W. Not much chance of this one missing it. Also, there's a huge dust cloud all around it extending almost to the Caribbean. It seems to be just outside the cloud, but some dust is beign drawn into it from the northwest.

I missed the memo on the term "fish" for hurricanes. Can someone fill me in please, Im lost on that one.

[Stormcenter]

Looks like 99.99% fish on this one. There's a major break in the ridge to the north between 25W-35W. Not much chance of this one missing it. Also, there's a huge dust cloud all around it extending almost to the Caribbean. It seems to be just outside the cloud, but some dust is beign drawn into it from the northwest.

Excellent news wxman57!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hyperstorm]

Here we go...

A tropical depression by later today or tonight looks like a good bet. Debby should be here not long after that, probably tomorrow morning.

The wave has held together very well overnight and in fact continues to slowly organize. Some people have said that convection looks elongated and there is a reason for that. There is some slight northerly shear that is pulling most of the moisture southward. That shear is also bringing in some dry air into the northern portion of the circulation. Thus most of the thunderstorm activity has moved toward the ITCZ.

That being said, the system still maintains vigorous convection over what looks like a developing LLC on visible imagery. On the visible image, you can also see strong inflow of moisture coming from the west and south into the circulation near 12-13N. I think this one is ready to take off.

I believe I see the movement still being north of due west right now. Remember, the further north it goes the less chances of significant strengthening due to cooler SSTs and as Chris mentioned a huge dust cloud that is surrounding the Cape Verde islands this morning.

Pull out your tracking charts!

[cycloneye]

Looks like 99.99% fish on this one. There's a major break in the ridge to the north between 25W-35W. Not much chance of this one missing it. Also, there's a huge dust cloud all around it extending almost to the Caribbean. It seems to be just outside the cloud, but some dust is beign drawn into it from the northwest.

I missed the memo on the term "fish" for hurricanes. Can someone fill me in please, Im lost on that one.

A fish system means it does not affect any landmasses that includes islands and is all the time at open sea.

[wxman57]

way to early to state that. and if it doesnt develope a quickly as some people are saying it will go more westward anyway still might recurve anyways but who knows its not even a system yet

No, not too early. Remember I talked about how the steering currents change from day to day? If you look at the low to mid-level flow today, then you'd suspect a westerly motion will continue.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby2.gif

Now look at the forecast for 2 days from today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby3.gif

Note the large gap between the split ridge in 48 hours. That's why the models are moving it out to sea. It's very far north already for being so far east. Not much chance of it reaching the Caribbean.

[Hyperstorm]

Latest satellite image from SSD clearly shows a developing system off the coast of Africa.



This could be the first system that develops near the Cape Verde islands since 2004.

[ConvergenceZone]

Latest satellite image from SSD clearly shows a developing system off the coast of Africa.



This could be the first system that develops near the Cape Verde islands since 2004.

and the one in front of it should reach the islands(you folks in the islands need to watch this one!!!)... The chain is in place!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

way to early to state that. and if it doesnt develope a quickly as some people are saying it will go more westward anyway still might recurve anyways but who knows its not even a system yet

No, not too early. Remember I talked about how the steering currents change from day to day? If you look at the low to mid-level flow today, then you'd suspect a westerly motion will continue.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby2.gif

Now look at the forecast for 2 days from today:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/debby3.gif



Note the large gap between the split ridge in 48 hours. That's why the models are moving it out to sea. It's very far north already for being so far east. Not much chance of it reaching the Caribbean.

Yea, that totally stinks if it recurves THAT early. It may keep it fron developing to a hurricane. I would prefer a much later recurve. Oh well...there will be plenty of other areas of interest this week.

[bvigal]

That recurve to almost due north around 40W is exactly what the GFS model has been showing us for days. (other models, too) I think it's a pretty strong bet the highs will set up just as wxman57 has shown us. (Thanks, by the way!)

As to the 35-36W wave, don't worry, we are watching it closely in this neighborhood.

[SouthFloridawx]

[HURAKAN]

The 11:30 AM EDT TWO should answer most of our questions.

They already have the RECON readty if it passes 55W (JK ).

[wxman57]

As to the 35-36W wave, don't worry, we are watching it closely in this neighborhood.

One good thing is that wave is embedded within some very dry, dusty Saharan air:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sal.gif

[gatorcane]

As to the 35-36W wave, don't worry, we are watching it closely in this neighborhood.

One good thing is that wave is embedded within some very dry, dusty Saharan air:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sal.gif

Looks like the wave is moving due West to me, no sign of any northerly component yet.

[bvigal]

As to the 35-36W wave, don't worry, we are watching it closely in this neighborhood.

One good thing is that wave is embedded within some very dry, dusty Saharan air:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sal.gif

Yes, we love the dust here. We may complain when cleaning it off everything all the time, but it really does a job on inhibiting cyclone development! Soufriere is active again, too. Today is one of those incredibly hazy days, with a double-whammy of Saharan and volcanic, can't see St. Thomas this morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

As to the 35-36W wave, don't worry, we are watching it closely in this neighborhood.

One good thing is that wave is embedded within some very dry, dusty Saharan air:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sal.gif

it will develop once it reaches the carib, but yes not until then probably...

[gatorcane]

As to the 35-36W wave, don't worry, we are watching it closely in this neighborhood.

One good thing is that wave is embedded within some very dry, dusty Saharan air:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sal.gif

it will develop once it reaches the carib, but yes not until then probably...

wrong wave, anyway...we'll see, it does look very disorganized at the moment.

[skysummit]

As to the 35-36W wave, don't worry, we are watching it closely in this neighborhood.

One good thing is that wave is embedded within some very dry, dusty Saharan air:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/sal.gif

it will develop once it reaches the carib, but yes not until then probably...

wrong wave, anyway...we'll see, it does look very disorganized at the moment.

He's talking about the wave just to the east of the Islands.