TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

#161 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:12 am

It just came off the coast. As the day gos by you will see that it will start poofing as you call it. I will give it a few days and you will see it getting smaller and smaller.

I hope that this is the one that make it but I don't see how with the shear a dry air JMO.

I still believe that when the Pacific calms down we will see more.

#162 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:15 am

I think I'm seen some weak banding trying to develop.

Thunder44 · #163 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:15 am

cycloneye wrote:It looks a little elongated not rounded.The front wave looks more rounded.

That's an old image. Look at latest visible images at NRL site.

#164 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:16 am

Thunder44 wrote:That's an old image. Look at latest visible images at NRL site.

That's 30 mins old....11:45z.

#165 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:16 am

Thunder44 wrote:
cycloneye wrote:It looks a little elongated not rounded.The front wave looks more rounded.

That's an old image. Look at latest visible images at NRL site.

It has been updated!!

Thunder44 · #166 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:17 am

skysummit wrote:
Thunder44 wrote:That's an old image. Look at latest visible images at NRL site.

That's 30 mins old....11:45z.

It was just updated and it does look more "rounded".

hawkeh · #167 Postby **hawkeh** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:19 am

Wow looking good.

You people saying its going to go poof... :grr:

#168 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:21 am

hawkeh wrote:Wow looking good.

You people saying its going to go poof...

That's those people who cannot grasp the idea that this is a normal season and we're now entering the peak. Those people have pretty much lost hope in the season.

#169 Postby **skysummit** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:30 am

Impressive this morning.

stormernie · #170 Postby **stormernie** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:33 am

The question now becomes we way will it go, all models are stating that it will curve out to sea. However, we known that the GFS is left bias what are the thoughts out there will it go out to sea or become a bigger issue down the road. My belief is if it develops early it will recurve, if it states weak (which I doubt) it would head further west.

#171 Postby **Lowpressure** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:37 am

Wave just emerging looks much better than it did even in the last sat pic. It has gone from obvious elongated wave structure to a more consolidated feature with some banding becoming evident. This system will be our next storm. Final location of a LLC will determine threat down the road or not. System needs to consolidate more and decide on LLC location. The further south the more likely for development, staying clear of SAL, with wraparound storms to protect the LLC from dry intrusion.

#172 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:39 am

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N16W 7N25W 9N34W 8N40W 12N55W
10N62W ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE
E PACIFIC REGION. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA
WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY BUT WAS NOT ANALYZED AS SUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF
SUPPORTING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 18W-22W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16W-24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE
AXIS FROM 41W-62W.

Dang...they are still considering it as "part of the ITCZ" in a way...however...from the tropical waves section also:

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ AREA.

So its there...just all convection is with the ITCZ area...figures...BTW...quotes from 805 AM TWD

#173 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:40 am

I haven't lost hope. I just don't see any thing happening till things turn around for developing a good storm. We have had TD and TS so far. We are on track. Just not going to be a 2005 year thank God. :wink:

#174 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:41 am

This is really unusual - 8:05TWD - ITZ section
"A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT WAS NOT ANALYZED AS SUCH DUE TO THE LACK OF SUPPORTING SURFACE AND UPPER AIR DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 18W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 16W-24W."

#175 Postby **bvigal** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:46 am

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD MID LEVEL ROTATION IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE ITCZ. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ AREA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

This is an error in TWD this morning. It should read:
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-14N BETWEEN 34W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO WITHIN THE ITCZ AREA.

#176 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:50 am

Looks like 99.99% fish on this one. There's a major break in the ridge to the north between 25W-35W. Not much chance of this one missing it. Also, there's a huge dust cloud all around it extending almost to the Caribbean. It seems to be just outside the cloud, but some dust is beign drawn into it from the northwest.

mike815 · #177 Postby **mike815** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:52 am

way to early to state that. and if it doesnt develope a quickly as some people are saying it will go more westward anyway still might recurve anyways but who knows its not even a system yet

ConvergenceZone · #178 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 7:58 am

storms in NC wrote:It just came off the coast. As the day gos by you will see that it will start poofing as you call it. I will give it a few days and you will see it getting smaller and smaller.

I hope that this is the one that make it but I don't see how with the shear a dry air JMO.

I still believe that when the Pacific calms down we will see more.

Even the METs said that the conditions are much better for tropical development...I've seen storms hold together in much worse conditions.

ConvergenceZone · #179 Postby **ConvergenceZone** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:02 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like 99.99% fish on this one. There's a major break in the ridge to the north between 25W-35W. Not much chance of this one missing it. Also, there's a huge dust cloud all around it extending almost to the Caribbean. It seems to be just outside the cloud, but some dust is beign drawn into it from the northwest.

This one might go out to sea, but If the wave in front of this one develops, I highly doubt that one will go out to sea and it's already pretty far west...I think there's a good chance both will develop down the road for sure!!!
I'd say 1 will fish and the other will not fish.

Thunder44 · #180 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:04 am

wxman57 wrote:Looks like 99.99% fish on this one. There's a major break in the ridge to the north between 25W-35W. Not much chance of this one missing it. Also, there's a huge dust cloud all around it extending almost to the Caribbean. It seems to be just outside the cloud, but some dust is beign drawn into it from the northwest.

Looks most of that dust is bypassing it to the North and East:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Wind Shear seems very low in the area, so I don't see much that would prevent it from developing today.

TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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