what do the pro mets think?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was just wondering what the pro mets on storm2k think the rest of the season will hold. I would love to hear all the different ideas and opinions as to..

A) Roughly how many more storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes do you think we will see this season?

B) Is the GOM at risk of another major cane this season? and if so, what is the most likely area of the GOM to be impacted?

C) What areas of the EC are the most at risk the rest of the year?

D) How do you think my state of Texas will fare the rest of this season?

E) Do you think a Cat. 5 storm is possible this September or October?

Any response to these questions based on how the season has behaved so far, and how you expect it to behave down the road would be appreciated.

Also, even if you are not a Pro met and you have a well-thought out idea..please feel free to add your opinion too.

[jlauderdal]

I was just wondering what the pro mets on storm2k think the rest of the season will hold. I would love to hear all the different ideas and opinions as to..

A) Roughly how many more storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes do you think we will see this season?

B) Is the GOM at risk of another major cane this season? and if so, what is the most likely area of the GOM to be impacted?

C) What areas of the EC are the most at risk the rest of the year?

D) How do you think my state of Texas will fare the rest of this season?

E) Do you think a Cat. 5 storm is possible this September or October?

Any response to these questions based on how the season has behaved so far, and how you expect it to behave down the road would be appreciated.

Also, even if you are not a Pro met and you have a well-thought out idea..please feel free to add your opinion too.

for question D you should refer to that climatology chart i sent you yesterday about texas.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I was just wondering what the pro mets on storm2k think the rest of the season will hold. I would love to hear all the different ideas and opinions as to..

A) Roughly how many more storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes do you think we will see this season?

B) Is the GOM at risk of another major cane this season? and if so, what is the most likely area of the GOM to be impacted?

C) What areas of the EC are the most at risk the rest of the year?

D) How do you think my state of Texas will fare the rest of this season?

E) Do you think a Cat. 5 storm is possible this September or October?

Any response to these questions based on how the season has behaved so far, and how you expect it to behave down the road would be appreciated.

Also, even if you are not a Pro met and you have a well-thought out idea..please feel free to add your opinion too.

for question D you should refer to that climatology chart i sent you yesterday about texas.

yes, thank you for that. It was helpful.

However, I am wondering more about this year in particular, and the pattern expected in September and October. Basically: Do the pro mets think a storm will threaten TX this year or should we be storm free through Nov. 30th?

[willjnewton]

do you all think more East coast storms for this 2006 atlantic hurricane season based on the steering current patterns and upper level winds???Because, I think the gulf of mexico is more at risk than the east coast is. I think the Gulf coast has a very high risk for this 2006 atlantic hurricane season..

[jlauderdal]

I was just wondering what the pro mets on storm2k think the rest of the season will hold. I would love to hear all the different ideas and opinions as to..

A) Roughly how many more storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes do you think we will see this season?

B) Is the GOM at risk of another major cane this season? and if so, what is the most likely area of the GOM to be impacted?

C) What areas of the EC are the most at risk the rest of the year?

D) How do you think my state of Texas will fare the rest of this season?

E) Do you think a Cat. 5 storm is possible this September or October?

Any response to these questions based on how the season has behaved so far, and how you expect it to behave down the road would be appreciated.

Also, even if you are not a Pro met and you have a well-thought out idea..please feel free to add your opinion too.

for question D you should refer to that climatology chart i sent you yesterday about texas.

yes, thank you for that. It was helpful.

However, I am wondering more about this year in particular, and the pattern expected in September and October. Basically: Do the pro mets think a storm will threaten TX this year or should we be storm free through Nov. 30th?

i will be interested to see a well thought out pattern discussion but i wouldnt count on any accurate tropical prediction for a specific location through nov 30 even if it was max mayfield and his entire staff.

[wxmann_91]

Pro mets are mets, not fortune tellers. No offense meant, EWG.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Pro mets are mets, not fortune tellers. No offense meant, EWG.

yes, but shouldn't they be expected to have a better idea of the upcoming weather pattern then the typical individual and be able to formulate a respectable theory on what could potentially occur? That is all I am asking really. I am not asking them to see the future, just to give an idea what they think could happen over the next few months. It would be interesting to see their different view points on the subject.

[hawkeh]

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060820/sc_ ... ricanes_dc

Check this article out

[wxman57]

See my post in the revised 2006 predictions thread I started.

[wxmann_91]

Pro mets are mets, not fortune tellers. No offense meant, EWG.

yes, but shouldn't they be expected to have a better idea of the upcoming weather pattern then the typical individual and be able to formulate a respectable theory on what could potentially occur? That is all I am asking really. I am not asking them to see the future, just to give an idea what they think could happen over the next few months. It would be interesting to see their different view points on the subject.

The weather pattern can change very quickly, but I see what you are talking about now.

I'm not met, but the current mean pattern favors Mexico/TX landfalls and an East Coast threat excluding Florida.

EDIT: Just saw wxman57's post and he favors FL. Interesting...

[hicksta]

thnx wx

[Extremeweatherguy]

See my post in the revised 2006 predictions thread I started.

Thanks wxman. That was exactly the type of thing I was looking for.

[Extremeweatherguy]

i think a cat 5 will hit right south of spring texas putting spring texas in the worst spot.

well if that's the case I better move while I have the chance. Thanks for the heads up!

[Jim Hughes]

Pro mets are mets, not fortune tellers. No offense meant, EWG.

yes, but shouldn't they be expected to have a better idea of the upcoming weather pattern then the typical individual and be able to formulate a respectable theory on what could potentially occur? That is all I am asking really. I am not asking them to see the future, just to give an idea what they think could happen over the next few months. It would be interesting to see their different view points on the subject.

Your confusing climatology with meteorology. They are two different fields. I have seen many get upset with the other half when they venture into the other's territory.

GW debates are a prime example. I have seen many a MET get ripped by their bretheren when they start talking about things that they have no business talkig about.

[hicksta]

lol, that would put me right next to you bro

[boca]

Pro mets are mets, not fortune tellers. No offense meant, EWG.

yes, but shouldn't they be expected to have a better idea of the upcoming weather pattern then the typical individual and be able to formulate a respectable theory on what could potentially occur? That is all I am asking really. I am not asking them to see the future, just to give an idea what they think could happen over the next few months. It would be interesting to see their different view points on the subject.

I agree with EWG the mets should have more incite of the upcoming weather patterns for Sept, Oct and Nov and will the shear relax enough for even a tropical storm to form.

[Jim Hughes]

Pro mets are mets, not fortune tellers. No offense meant, EWG.

yes, but shouldn't they be expected to have a better idea of the upcoming weather pattern then the typical individual and be able to formulate a respectable theory on what could potentially occur? That is all I am asking really. I am not asking them to see the future, just to give an idea what they think could happen over the next few months. It would be interesting to see their different view points on the subject.

I agree with EWG the mets should have more incite of the upcoming weather patterns for Sept, Oct and Nov and will the shear relax enough for even a tropical storm to form.

September is right around the corner. October and November are not. When you venture this far out you are talking about forecasting the feedbacks between the teleconnections and the atmosphere. I look forward to hearing some of this.