TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

HURAKAN already the models were posted on page 1.

[TheShrimper]

No, I don't have anything better to go on. I'll wait a while, like untill it reaches 50 W, (which it will not) before I start making proclamations or show any concern whatsoever. Wait a little longer, there will be something worthy to be concerned with.

[Brent]

Please develop little fishy. But I'm not holding my breath...

[Hyperstorm]

This system that has just emerged from Africa is one of the most powerful systems to come off that continent this year. This is about as close to a Tropical Depression as a system can get right off the coast. Latest satellite imagery indicates convection exploding offshore with very cold cloud tops near what looks like a developed LLC (You can tell by the way the band to the south is tilting toward the east).

This system is well on its way to being declared the 4th tropical depression of 2006. It could very well become Debby soon thereafter. There are no limiting factors I can see with the convection re-firing over water during the nocturnal maxima hours (Remember, there are several hours difference between the western and eastern Atlantic). This is also an indication that the SAL is not significantly affecting the development of what I see is a powerful disturbance.

The system already seems to have a north of west component of motion during the last several hours. While this may be temporary as the system continues to organize, any northward motion will put it over cooler SSTs with lower heat content and right into the heart of the SAL. If this system begins to move WNW shortly, then I personally think this will not strengthen past tropical storm status due to the aforementioned factors. It could suffer the fate of 93L after it has reached tropical storm status. The longer it maintains a straight west trajectory, the stronger it should become.

By tomorrow, we very well should have Tropical Depression #4 and little Debbie not long after that. 2006 is rolling...

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN already the models were posted on page 1.

SORRY!!! I couldn't hold myself. It has been so inactive that anything that pop-up looks interesting and gets me exited!!!

[StormScanWx]

Hyperstorm, that was a very informative post! Thanks!!

[senorpepr]

By tomorrow, we very well should have Tropical Depression #4 and little Debbie not long after that. 2006 is rolling...

I highly doubt that. I'm willing to do a coke bet on that. It's plenty stable on the eastern portions of any ocean.

[Nimbus]

The three northern most tracks are bam models that are not dynamic and do not take into account future steering.

Which of the remaining *available* models is the best dynamic model for a cape verde wave?

[Anthonyl]

Hyperstorm you seem to give good analysis on the tropical system.A question for you, what impact negative or positive will this emerging system have on the tropical eave about 32w which had a surface low reinitalisded about 10n bt TABF.

[cycloneye]

We can expect the the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook will not be

[wxman57]

By tomorrow, we very well should have Tropical Depression #4 and little Debbie not long after that. 2006 is rolling...

I highly doubt that. I'm willing to do a coke bet on that. It's plenty stable on the eastern portions of any ocean.

Coke bet? You do those, too? We've made "Coke bets" for years where I work. Won a lot of them over the years...

The only problem with this system is it's so far out to sea that the NHC may just ignore it even though it may have a nice spin. Because of the inconsistencies on what the NHC is classifying these days, I won't take your Coke bet.

[Hyperstorm]

By tomorrow, we very well should have Tropical Depression #4 and little Debbie not long after that. 2006 is rolling...

I highly doubt that. I'm willing to do a coke bet on that. It's plenty stable on the eastern portions of any ocean.

Senorpepr...

While I normally wait for persistence before jumping on any development (especially over the east Atlantic knowing how inconsistent conditions can be), the fact that intense convection has just blossomed off the coast has got me thinking this one has a higher than average chance of developing. The system already has that pre-classical developmental signature you see in other areas of the basin and other oceans when development is imminent.

While I wouldn't bet my house on it, I think we're seeing the beginnings of an interesting system poised to possibly strengthen further. We'll see...

[wxman57]

The three northern most tracks are bam models that are not dynamic and do not take into account future steering.

Which of the remaining *available* models is the best dynamic model for a cape verde wave?

Take a look at the GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS. NOGAPS & GFS indicate a weakness in the ridge to the north west of 40W and recurvature. EC wasn't available from 12Z (at least online).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree that this system is very strong, about the strongest so far this season. At least with half way faverble upper levels. The convection is forming right over the center. With nice inflow that can mean that a LLC is developing. The factors against it are if it moves any more northward. Which will not only bring it into SAL/dry air but cooler SSTs. So the more westward it go's the better. I agree that this maybe close to be a depression. But I would like some quickscat and t number support.

[fci]

Well, if this one bucks the odds and precedence of the other little Invests before it; we may actually have something to track and we can watch as she goes fishin!

At least it will calm down the "Invest Fever" we have had infecting S2K with 25 page threads on measly Invests!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

Please develop little fishy. But I'm not holding my breath...

I swear, if this one or the carib wave doesn't develop, then nothing will....I've said that about every good looking wave that's fallen apart so far and so far I've been right.... We only get so many opportunities with good looking waves like this....

[Wthrman13]

The three northern most tracks are bam models that are not dynamic and do not take into account future steering.

Which of the remaining *available* models is the best dynamic model for a cape verde wave?

That's not entirely true. The BAM models make use of vertically averaged steering flows from the GFS forecast fields, so they do in fact take into account future steering.

[Hyperstorm]

Hyperstorm you seem to give good analysis on the tropical system.A question for you, what impact negative or positive will this emerging system have on the tropical eave about 32w which had a surface low reinitalisded about 10n bt TABF.

Anthony...

I don't think there will be major impacts on the wave that is near 35W. On the contrary, if the wave near 35W develops with favorable upper-level winds, it could limit the development of this one with a possible trough of low pressure on its east side. That would be fairly typical, but of course, we've seen how systems develop right next to each other every year throughout the world and they manage to strengthen.

In this case, I don't think the upper environment would support both systems becoming significant (hurricanes) cyclones for very long...

[wxmann_91]

I don't see the weakness everybody's talking about. In fact, many of the models build the ridge back - but for some reason still plow this system into it. Besides, if one thinks logically, if it heads north, it will weaken, and thus will naturally stay west. Also, many times Globals underestimate ridges.

Will it curve northward before the Islands? Probably, yes. But will it recurve out to sea before the latitude of the Islands? I won't bank on that...just yet.