TD #4 near CV Islands,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

I don't think they will ever declare a td over land again. In really so after looking at a repectful system like 93L not being ugpraded. Even so it had shear it still had a strong LLC. I don't see how they would upgrade another over land today.

They would if it meets the qualifications of a tropical depression.

But theres a rule that a TC can only develop over warm moist water. How could one develop in Africa or is there lots of bodies of water within the land?

[TheShrimper]

Your graphic southflaweather only traverses easterly to 30 W. Yeh if it snuck underneath the trough early, westerly it would be. But it looks like toast to me.

[Anthonyl]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Chri ... _track.png

The eastern most development for a tropical depression did occur in !973.

[wxman57]

Steering flow says to the west with you...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

Beware using those steering level maps to forecast long-term tracks. They're just a snapshot of the flow now. Steering winds change constantly. This does appear to have a high chance of recurving well east of the Caribbean.

[SouthFloridawx]

Your graphic southflaweather only traverses easterly to 30 W. Yeh if it snuck underneath the trough early, westerly it would be. But it looks like toast to me.

Which graphic?

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Christine_1973_track.png

The eastern most development for a tropical depression did occur in !973.

Cool! Does anybody know where the advisory for that one would be maybe archived?? I know there were archived advisories for Camille. Who issued advisories for the atlantic and Cape Verde in 1973?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Cyclone like system develop over western Africa. The African wave system devleops a area of low pressure/reaches its strongest as its over western Africa. Then once it moves into the Atlatnic it weakens some. Also these normally do develop a LLC. As weird as it may sound the temperature difference between the dessert and the mid lats form these waves. Which helps form a LLC with the convergences at the surface. So yes some of these strong systems you see with a nice spin to them can be depressions or tropcial storms. But what I was saying is the nhc most likely will not upgrade one over land for the reason that it will likely weaken once hitting the ocean.

[TheShrimper]

You know which one , CMISS.

[Scorpion]

I find it kind of ironic how waves weaken once hitting the water.

[SouthFloridawx]

Steering flow says to the west with you...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

Beware using those steering level maps to forecast long-term tracks. They're just a snapshot of the flow now. Steering winds change constantly. This does appear to have a high chance of recurving well east of the Caribbean.

Please do not take this as rude but, instead of telling me to not use those maps... Can you steer me in the right direction as which maps to look at?

[mike815]

can u please change the spelling of "africa" to the german form "afrika" that would be nice thanks since some people are doing that already in there posts

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They weaken because the water is more stable...

[SouthFloridawx]

You know which one , CMISS.

Do you have something better to look at as far as steering flow is? Maybe you could post your thoughts and maps that you use too look at steering flow? Instead of using a one liner to tell me it won't.

[Stormavoider]

can u please change the spelling of "africa" to the german form "afrika" that would be nice thanks since some people are doing that already in there posts

WHY?

[wxmann_91]

Steering flow says to the west with you...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

Beware using those steering level maps to forecast long-term tracks. They're just a snapshot of the flow now. Steering winds change constantly. This does appear to have a high chance of recurving well east of the Caribbean.

Please do not take this as rude but, instead of telling me to not use those maps... Can you steer me in the right direction as which maps to look at?

He's not saying you shouldn't use them, he's just saying that past 1-2 days, the steering patterns will change significantly. It's just better to look at the overall synoptic picture.

[mike815]

because its better and i did notice some people in here spell it that way maybe u can put both spellings up

[HURAKAN]

LOOKS NICE. PERSISTENCE IS THE KEY!!!

[wxman57]

Steering flow says to the west with you...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm3.html

Beware using those steering level maps to forecast long-term tracks. They're just a snapshot of the flow now. Steering winds change constantly. This does appear to have a high chance of recurving well east of the Caribbean.

Please do not take this as rude but, instead of telling me to not use those maps... Can you steer me in the right direction as which maps to look at?

Well, those maps are ok for a short-term track estimate, maybe the next day or so. But I've not found the forecast steering level maps online. They're certainly easy enough to make. We can use GARP and create them for a variety of levels from the GFS data. Of course, they're only as good as the model forecasts of upper-level winds out in the middle of the ocean.

[SouthFloridawx]

Well, those maps are ok for a short-term track estimate, maybe the next day or so. But I've not found the forecast steering level maps online. They're certainly easy enough to make. We can use GARP and create them for a variety of levels from the GFS data. Of course, they're only as good as the model forecasts of upper-level winds out in the middle of the ocean.

Thanks

[HURAKAN]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962006) ON 20060821 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060821 0000 060821 1200 060822 0000 060822 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.8N 18.2W 10.8N 20.4W 11.2N 22.3W 12.0N 24.1W
BAMM 10.8N 18.2W 11.1N 20.4W 11.7N 22.3W 12.6N 24.4W
A98E 10.8N 18.2W 11.1N 21.5W 11.2N 24.7W 11.3N 27.5W
LBAR 10.8N 18.2W 11.3N 21.3W 11.8N 24.2W 12.4N 27.2W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060823 0000 060824 0000 060825 0000 060826 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 25.9W 16.7N 30.3W 20.0N 34.9W 22.3N 39.3W
BAMM 14.0N 26.4W 17.3N 31.0W 20.8N 35.7W 23.6N 39.9W
A98E 11.4N 29.9W 12.5N 33.7W 14.3N 37.3W 16.8N 41.7W
LBAR 13.2N 30.0W 16.0N 34.9W 19.9N 39.4W 23.9N 44.3W
SHIP 52KTS 61KTS 61KTS 61KTS
DSHP 52KTS 61KTS 61KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.8N LONCUR = 18.2W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 15.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 10.4N LONM24 = 11.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM