El nino developing??

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willjnewton

El nino developing??

#1 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:17 pm

Since there is tropical storm Hector in the eastern pacific..and there is a tropical storm in the central pacific and and a fairly siginficant storm of the century in the WESTERN PACIFIC..and the SO1 is extremely incredibily impressive that just happened recently and the anomaly s at below the surface is warming...has the eastern pacific already reached el nino levels yet, like had it reached 0.5 fairenheight yet???I know there has been many threaDs about this, but I need all the experts tell me has a El nino begun, then if someone has I will STOP MAKING THREADS, okay, thanks, you all are my very best friends and I love you all and this will be the official threaD so people can check up on el nino STATUS and let me know okay, thanks and I LOVE YOU ALL TO THE MOON AND BACK...
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WeatherWiseGuy
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#2 Postby WeatherWiseGuy » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:30 pm

Will, I'm not going to even pretend to know the answer to that, but someone recently mentioned this website as a good place to check:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/index.shtml
The next update is August 30th.
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kevin

#3 Postby kevin » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:35 pm

Yes, two seconds ago an El Nino formed. I have super secret ways to telling this. So you won't have to ask about it anymore. The El Nino is weak and emerging, and it will lower activity but there will still be yes yes hurricanes.
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willjnewton

#4 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 20, 2006 4:56 pm

okay you all please lock this threaD
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willjnewton

#5 Postby willjnewton » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:05 pm

are you all going to lock this threaD or NOT???
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rainstorm

#6 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:19 pm

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Re: El nino developing??

#7 Postby skysummit » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:19 pm

willjnewton wrote:this will be the official threaD so people can check up on el nino STATUS and let me know okay, thanks and I LOVE YOU ALL TO THE MOON AND BACK...


Ok....you say this will be the official thread and now you're yelling for mods to lock it. :think:
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#8 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:22 pm

willjnewton wrote:are you all going to lock this threaD or NOT???


Might as well lock it. You'll make a new one anyway.
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#9 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:26 pm

looks like neutral-nino to me.

Steve
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#10 Postby WeatherWiseGuy » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:41 pm

rainstorm wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif


Rainstorm, thanks for supplying this link, but how does one interpret this map? How does it indicate the presence of an El Nino or La Nina? What areas are most important to look at? Thanks!
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kevin

#11 Postby kevin » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:41 pm

*nudges Steve*
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#12 Postby ziggy1122 » Sun Aug 20, 2006 5:55 pm

The beauty is... no one knows if there is or isn't an El Nino forming. If there is one, it will happen. If there isn't one, it won't happen.

Remember.. El Nino is Spanish for.... The....Nino
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rainstorm

#13 Postby rainstorm » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:42 pm

WeatherWiseGuy wrote:
rainstorm wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif


Rainstorm, thanks for supplying this link, but how does one interpret this map? How does it indicate the presence of an El Nino or La Nina? What areas are most important to look at? Thanks!


well blue areas=below normal
yellow/red areas=above normal

looking at the equatorial areas, it appears to be nuetral or a very weak el nino
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#14 Postby AussieMark » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:50 pm

u get Hurricanes in the eastern pacific even in La Nina or Neutral years

just ElNinos seasons they become more frequent
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#15 Postby Stephanie » Sun Aug 20, 2006 6:52 pm

will - I think it's a great question and if it was locked when you wanted it locked, you wouldn't have received the link supplied by rainstorm. :wink:

The waters would be more yellow and orange off of the western coast of South America by the equator if an El Nino was forming or occurring. If it was a La Nina, the waters would be bluer. It looks pretty neutral to me as well.
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#16 Postby Aslkahuna » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:03 pm

Incidentally, the criterion for SST's is 0.5 C (0.9F) when discussing the ENSO. I'm curious though, I haven't seen any storm of the Century in WPAC. Saomai was a farily typical Supertyphoon at 140kt sustained winds. The fact that it was close to China when it peaked is it's main claim to fame and at any rate, I believe that it was down to 120kt at landfall. Hector only peaked at 85kt so it wasn't outlandish and Ioke forming in CENPAC just means that conditions were favorable as we still continue in neutral-warm conditions.

Steve
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#17 Postby MortisFL » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:04 pm

Youre too much, will.
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#18 Postby AussieMark » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:10 pm

if u want to compare the ssts anomalities of now to other el nino years at this point

1997- August 1997 had a index of +1.7C
Image

2002 - August 2002 had a index of +0.9C
Image

2004 - August 2004 had a index of +0.7C
Image

2006 - July 2006 had a index of +0.1C
Image

to be classed as a official El Nino u need 3 straight months of a index of +0.5C or more
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#19 Postby HurricaneBill » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:22 pm

Aslkahuna wrote:Incidentally, the criterion for SST's is 0.5 C (0.9F) when discussing the ENSO. I'm curious though, I haven't seen any storm of the Century in WPAC. Saomai was a farily typical Supertyphoon at 140kt sustained winds. The fact that it was close to China when it peaked is it's main claim to fame and at any rate, I believe that it was down to 120kt at landfall. Hector only peaked at 85kt so it wasn't outlandish and Ioke forming in CENPAC just means that conditions were favorable as we still continue in neutral-warm conditions.

Steve


Also, Japan hasn't really received any typhoons. Usually, when an El Nino is occuring, Japan tends to get hit more frequently.

The 2004 El Nino is a good example of this.

Also, CPAC storms have formed in years without an El Nino. 1990 and 2000 are examples.
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#20 Postby WeatherWiseGuy » Sun Aug 20, 2006 7:53 pm

Thanks to Rainstorm and others who have responded. Is the most important area to look at in the equatorial region just off South America or are we looking at the entire equatorial belt around the Earth? Sorry about the simplistic questions.
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