Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[Bailey1777]

People I think a pro-met like WXMAN57 can tell the difference between a cluster of thunderstorm and an organizing system. I'll put my money with him.

[wxman57]

People I think a pro-met like WXMAN57 can tell the difference between a cluster of thunderstorm and an organizing system. I'll put my money with him.

I see an impressive cluster of thunderstorms, not an organizing TD this afternoon. There appears to be favorable outflow. Thunderstorms were enhanced by an upper low earlier today, but that low's effects are diminishing. The key will be IF thunderstorms persist through the night with the upper low moving out. If so, then development is much more likely.

[Jam151]

should've been mentioned. I like the other forecasters better.

[Derek Ortt]

why the NHC criticism by the kids just because NHC sees no development at the present time?

[Dean4Storms]

A weakness is forecasted to be near the eastern half of the GOM.......


FXUS62 KTAE 201835
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
230 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST OF LOCAL AREA
WITH MAINLY THIN AC/CIRRUS. ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER SE BIG BEND WHERE
SCATTERED CONVECTION WAS DRIFTING W. TEMPS RANGE FROM LOWER 80S
UNDER RAIN IN SE BIG BEND TO MID 90S W OF APALACHICOLA RIVER DEW
POINTS MID 60S NW TO MID 70S SE BIG BEND.

AT UPPER LEVELS...TROF ADVANCES SWD INTO CNTRL APPALACHIANS. STRONG
BELT OF WESTERLIES SHIFTING SWD ACROSS NRN THIRD OF CONUS. BELOW
WESTERLIES...A RETROGRADING AND SLOWLY WEAKENING SBTRPCL HIGH CENTER
OVER NORTHEAST TX WITH SBTRPCL HIGH BELT EXTENDING FROM PLAINS EAST
TO WRN ATLC WITH WEAK IMPULSES RIDING EWD. WITH WESTERLIES DROPPING
S...SBTRPCL HIGH BELT FORECAST TO FLATTEN AND ALSO DROP S ACROSS THE
SE STATES. FURTHER S...BROAD RIDGE OVER SE STATES. WITH FLATTENING
SBTRPCL BELT...BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOW INCREASED MID LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHED SOUTHWARD NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHO FOR REST OF
TODAY/TONIGHT UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA REMAINS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND FAIRLY DRY. MAIN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS DRY
SLOT ADVANCING FROM ATLC SSW TO ACROSS CWA. ALL THIS REFLECTED IN
TIME-HEIGHT X-SECTIONS WITH LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW AT TLH TO H75
WHILE AT DHN TO ONLY H95 WITH NE FLOW ABOVE. LOOKING SOUTH OF
CWA...A LOW CENTERED JUST NW OF BAHAMAS OR ABOUT 90 MILES EAST OF
KMLB WAS DRIFTING TOWARD THE W/NW AT 5 KT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT IT
MOVES ACROSS PENINSULA TOMORROW AND WEAKEN INTO THE ERN GULF ON
TUES.

AT SURFACE...RATHER FLAT PRESSURE FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
WITH RIDGE ALONG THE SC/GA BORDER AND DRIFTING SWD...BERMUDA RIDGE
BUILDING WEST OVER THE FL PENINSULA. ABOVE E COAST TROF KICKING A
WEAK FRONT SWD...MOVING FROM FROM NEW ENGLAND SW THRU OHIO VALLEY TO
CNTRL TEXAS EARLY AFTN TO MID MS VALLEY TO CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. A
WEAK LOW NE OF VLD MOVING SLOWLY WNW WITH TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW
SW THRU APALACHICOLA AND INTO CENTRAL/WRN GULF. ALONG AND SE OF
TROF...MAINLY SE BIG BEND...AFTN CONVECTION/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING.
12Z TAE SOUNDING WITH 1.87 PWAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
TONIGHT...LINGERING EVENING MOISTURE FROM E COAST SEABREEZE.
REMNANTS OF ERN GA SURFACE LOW MAY KEEP ADDED CLOUDS...MODERATED
TEMPS AND PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY ERN MOST GA ZONE.

MONDAY...UPPER (TUTT) MOVES OVER PANHANDLE/EXTREME NE GULF...WITH
SOME INCREASE IN UPPER DYNAMICS ESPECIALLY ERN THIRD CWA. SERIES OF
H5 SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG FRONT HELPING TO SUPPRESS RIDGE TO OUR N
FURTHER SWD AND BRING ABOVE COLD FRONT TO NCNTRL ALA/GA BY EVENING.
LOCAL GRADIENTS RELAX FURTHER AND PERSISTENT NE STEERING FLOW SHIFTS
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE (TYPE 1) WHICH FAVORS N-S GRADIENT WITH SEA
BREEZE HOVERING ACROSS FLA COASTAL COUNTIES YIELDING N-S POP
GRADIENT...FLA COAST (MID-SCT) DOWN TO GA (ISOLD). BUT...SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...APPROACHING
UPPER LOW...AND ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL INTERACT. THUS
USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND OLD NAM MOS FOR OUR POP. WILL GO 50 PCT
NW THIRD DOWN TO 40 PCT SE THIRD. WITH VERY LIGHT STEERING
FLOW...ANY STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. GFS/NAM 18Z MON
WITH 2.00 AND 1.95 IN PWAT RESPECTIVELY. TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE.
GFS/NAM LITTLE TEMP/POP DIFFERENCE FOR ALA/GA BUT GFS NOTICEABLY
WETTER FOR FLA ZONES. THIS DUE TO MAN BUILDING CNTL FLA RIDGE MORE
NWD AND FASTER THAN GFS.

TUESDAY...
ABOVE COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO CNTRL ALA/GA DURING AFTN AND SRN
ALA/SCNTRL GA BY EVENING. BAHAMAS (TUTT) MOVES IN NE GULF ADVANCES
WWD INTO ACROSS NE GULF PLACING CWA IN ZONE OF MORE FAVORABLE UPPER
DYNAMICS. THIS SHIFTS FLOW TO TYPE 4 (LIGHT S/SW) SO THERMODYNAMICS
IMPROVE AS THE 1000-700 MB MEAN FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH
IS TYPICALLY A WETTER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA. THIS FLOW FAVORS BIG
BEND COAST WITH BIG BEND (50 PCT) TO GA (20 PCT) GRADIENT. HOWEVER
WITH COMBO OF UPPER DYNAMICS..PROXIMITY OF FRONT...SEA BREEZE-
OUTFLOW CLASHES...WILL GO ABOVE GUIDANCE AND EXPECT LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN POP GRADIENT..WITH ENTIRE CWA BEING WET. WILL GO WITH
LIKELY ALL BUT SRN MOST SECTIONS OF CWA WHERE HI SCT POPS. AFTN
GFS/NAM BOTH WITH PWATS OVER 2 INCHES AND GOOD WET MICROBURST
SOUNDINGS. WITH WAVE FORMS ON FRONT AND IT BEGINS TO HANG UP LATE
TUES NIGHT INTO EARLY WED KEEPING LOCAL AREA WITH MOIST ONSHORE
FLOW. MAV STILL WETTER AS NAM CONTS WITH STRONGER SURFACE RIDGE OVER
NRN GULF BUT DIFFERENCES NOTICEABLY LESS THAN MONDAY..

&&

.LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY) THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT OUR AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE U.S.
SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST ATLANTIC. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO BE
NEAR OUR AREA...AS WELL AS QUITE A BIT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. OUR
POP WILL CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE...WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

[miamicanes177]

why the NHC criticism by the kids just because NHC sees no development at the present time?

Maybe their satellite feed is out? Or "if we ignore it, it will go away" may be their thinking. Tried that with 91L and it looked like a TD for 3 days. I'll never figure those guys out. I know most of them. They must see the developing storms in a favorable environment.

I would not call wxman57 a "kid". He is a professional met, and I believe his opinion deserves to be valued on this board.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Its Sunday folks and the NHC are probably taking it easy, playing ping pong, nintendo, etc just enjoying the quiet times and havent checked the latest satellites. Dont ya ever have them blah days at work when you'd rather just goof off? They are only human like us and Im sure they have them days too.

[Dean4Storms]

People I think a pro-met like WXMAN57 can tell the difference between a cluster of thunderstorm and an organizing system. I'll put my money with him.

I see an impressive cluster of thunderstorms, not an organizing TD this afternoon. There appears to be favorable outflow. Thunderstorms were enhanced by an upper low earlier today, but that low's effects are diminishing. The key will be IF thunderstorms persist through the night with the upper low moving out. If so, then development is much more likely.

Agree, nice diffluence aloft aided most of this convection. The key will be whether it has generated a strong enough surface trough/low to continue overnight with the deep convection.

[Dean4Storms]

why the NHC criticism by the kids just because NHC sees no development at the present time?

That was unprofessional in my opinion and adds no professional value toward yourself.

Its not really that they didn't mention it for development, they didn't even mention it period which if I was a fisherman out of Jamaica it might have been a good idea.

[Jam151]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/STEWART

Maybe their satellite feed is out? Or "if we ignore it, it will go away" may be their thinking. Tried that with 91L and it looked like a TD for 3 days. I'll never figure those guys out. I know most of them. They must see the developing storms in a favorable environment.

Perhaps they just think it's transient. It may just fizzle it out later this evening, like the GOM cluster of storms did the other day, that I wouldn't suprise me. Looking at surface obs there doesn't appear to any surface circulation at all and there isn't any inflow coming into the system.

If thats the case then why mentioned the gulf blob that came off days ago. They are not consistent, but thats all i'll say even though its bash NHC day(kinda surpriseing IMO)

[rockyman]

I seriously doubt that they would issue a TWO without "checking the latest satellites"...Why can't we disagree with the NHC without attributing their opinions to either laziness, incompetence, cowardess, greed or political corruption? Yes, these are all traits attributed to the NHC recently by this board

[Thunder44]

why the NHC criticism by the kids just because NHC sees no development at the present time?

Maybe their satellite feed is out? Or "if we ignore it, it will go away" may be their thinking. Tried that with 91L and it looked like a TD for 3 days. I'll never figure those guys out. I know most of them. They must see the developing storms in a favorable environment.

I would not call wxman57 a "kid". He is a professional met, and I believe his opinion deserves to be valued on this board.

I don't think Derek was referring to wxman57. But he was also critical of them in that post he made.

[Derek Ortt]

that comment was not addressed at Chris, but at some who consistently trash the NHC when they say no development and do not provide any reasoning as to why NHC may be wrong

[Derek Ortt]

the TWO is not for fisherman, thats what the high seas forecast is for

[SouthAlabamaWX]

why the NHC criticism by the kids just because NHC sees no development at the present time?

I Agree Derek.

Yes, the NHC satellite feeds are working.

The NHC has been watching the SW Carribean for several days. In there conference calls they mentioned it but at this time they don't see any evidence of development. Things may change.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree that the trashing of NHC just because they failed to mention it is also un-called for, but is a bit strange.

[Dean4Storms]

the TWO is not for fisherman, thats what the high seas forecast is for

Well you got a point there.

[Stormavoider]

SHIP S 2100 12.90 -77.50 358 228 60 8.0 - - - - - 1009.5mb

[ConvergenceZone]

why the NHC criticism by the kids just because NHC sees no development at the present time?

I'm sure that will change shortly, or at least by tomorrow....They are just being cautious that's all..

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Regardless of why the NHC didnt mention it, this map that Cyclone eye posted in another tread spells very favorable conditions for this to develop cause its in the green zone just like Hurricane Hector is!