Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[PTPatrick]

Well, It looks like the size of the actual storms have shrunk just a little...not sure if it will persist though

[skysummit]

When will we be able to see the first model runs on this now that it is together... that is, models other than the NAM?

Well you can check out the global models right now, but you won't see any tropical models (such as the BAM brothers) until it's designated an Invest.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sorry, I see the system, but, I don't see any "weaknesses," for the next week anywhere along the Northern Central GOM...I could see Texas or Mexico with a hurricane by next Thursday or Friday, however, with this system.

[MortisFL]

Still looks good to me, holding together. Cloud tops have warmed but convection rebounds to the north and south side.

[Stormavoider]

Can someone point me in the right direction here? I do see persistent convection but, I do not see spinning going on there in the Western Caribbean. If you guys are looking at a different sat pic than me, then please let me know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

It's going to take a couple of days for anything to get going... as per the 205 disco the surface trough was expected to move WNW into land?

You can see the northern part here.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-79&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[PTPatrick]

Sean...per NOLA and Mobile there will be a trough stalling in the vicinity of the gulf coast from the Tuesday to thursday time frame. Seems like this would provide at least some posibility for "weakness" depending on strength. I am no expert though and I could certainly be mis interpreting this info

[skysummit]

Sorry, I see the system, but, I don't see any "weaknesses," for the next week anywhere along the Northern Central GOM...I could see Texas or Mexico with a hurricane by next Thursday or Friday, however, with this system.

The weakness will happen when a trough will dig across. That will cause the ridge to shift to our west.

[wxman57]

Where are the Pro-Mets at on this one? Haven't heard from our crew on this.

Well, I started this thread. Things appear to be going pretty much as I expected, maybe just a tad slower. We have a very strong disturbance now with improving outflow. I'm a bit surprised there's no invest up yet. The NHC has suddenly become very reluctant to suggest that anything might develop.

As for where it might go, I can't access my office PC now as my VNC connection is down. I figure two possibilities. Mexico to south Texas or NNE toward north-central to northeast Gulf.

[Bailey1777]

Thanks WXMAN57. And yes I know you started this which is very impressive forcasting. I meant in the last several hours. It sure seems like it is being downplayed big time.

[Dean4Storms]

Can someone point me in the right direction here? I do see persistent convection but, I do not see spinning going on there in the Western Caribbean. If you guys are looking at a different sat pic than me, then please let me know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

It's going to take a couple of days for anything to get going... as per the 205 disco the surface trough was expected to move WNW into land?

If you will use the zoom feature on the loop you are looking at you will see a spin, it may still be at mid-level. But a spin none the less.

[skysummit]

Where are the Pro-Mets at on this one? Haven't heard from our crew on this.

Well, I started this thread. Things appear to be going pretty much as I expected, maybe just a tad slower. We have a very strong disturbance now with improving outflow. I'm a bit surprised there's no invest up yet. The NHC has suddenly become very reluctant to suggest that anything might develop.

As for where it might go, I can't access my office PC now as my VNC connection is down. I figure two possibilities. Mexico to south Texas or NNE toward north-central to northeast Gulf.

LOL...that's the safest call right now anyone can make!

[PTPatrick]

WxMan...do you think this could be a storm by tomorrow morning? Do you think it looks better for the central GOM like LA/MS than say 2 days ago when CMC had a Katrina country landfall?

[Sean in New Orleans]

Where are the Pro-Mets at on this one? Haven't heard from our crew on this.

Well, I started this thread. Things appear to be going pretty much as I expected, maybe just a tad slower. We have a very strong disturbance now with improving outflow. I'm a bit surprised there's no invest up yet. The NHC has suddenly become very reluctant to suggest that anything might develop.

As for where it might go, I can't access my office PC now as my VNC connection is down. I figure two possibilities. Mexico to south Texas or NNE toward north-central to northeast Gulf.

I agree with this scenario...however, I think if it goes NE it will by-pass the Central GOM and head into Florida...maybe as far West as Ft. Walton Beach, but, more likely N. of Tampa on the Western Coast...just my two cents....this is too far out to really tell...we need another couple of days to see things play out, IMO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So basically, Wxman, you think it could go anywhere from northern Mexico to the big bend of FL? Sounds reasonable to me.

[Stormavoider]

No good deed goes unpunished around here.

[SouthFloridawx]

Can someone point me in the right direction here? I do see persistent convection but, I do not see spinning going on there in the Western Caribbean. If you guys are looking at a different sat pic than me, then please let me know.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

It's going to take a couple of days for anything to get going... as per the 205 disco the surface trough was expected to move WNW into land?

You can see the northern part here.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-79&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

Thank you stormavoider.

[rockyman]

Actually, that's not what Wxman wrote...he said south Texas into Mexico or North Central to NE Gulf....

I'm guessing that it will either go south of the Arkansas high or it will ride up the anticipated central Gomex trough on the west side of the Bermuda high...Most of the Texas coast would be protected by the high over Arkansas retrograding west

[Extremeweatherguy]

Actually, that's not what Wxman wrote...he said south Texas into Mexico or North Central to NE Gulf....

same thing isn't it.

North Central Gulf = Houston, TX to Pensacola, FL.

NE Gulf = Key west, FL to Pensacola, FL.

South TX and north Mexico = Corpus Christi, TX down to past the border.

Pretty much the only gap in there is between Corpus and Freeport.

[Johnny]

So basically, Wxman, you think it could go anywhere from northern Mexico to the big bend of FL? Sounds reasonable to me.

Actually no, I think wxman is saying he thinks it's either going to hit south, Texas or northern Mexico OR the north central/eastern gulf coast...either one of those two regions.

[carve]

What are the percentages that this thing developes and affects the gulf coast?? Any guesses? Or calculated estimates?