QUIKSCAT + Recent Satellite Imagery + Model Support = ?

[bvigal]

The GFS still showing an almost due north turn at 45W for that low. Also on that 6z GFS vorticity loop, the new low is 1st depicted T=18 hrs at about 8N 18W, which is pretty far away from 15N. Could it be we're looking at another low just coming off the coast now?

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye...

I see that the wave moved WSW as it is ready to move off land. It has a fairly impressive circulation that is still just inland near 12N-13N. Convection is re-firing offshore before the low hits the waters, so we might be on to something here as well.

Tropics are waking up...

Tropics are waking up... Agree 100%.

[rainstorm]

the most important thing is the persistent ull west of the azores has finally moved out, which signals an overall pattern change may be occuring which would stop the constant production of upper lows

[cycloneye]

[ThunderMate]

Any thoughts on the wave this morning and when it may become an invest? I think it is possible it may become one later today or early tomm. morning.

[rockyman]

Entire Atlantic between 10N and 15N is showing positive for development on this map (area around 45N being highest):

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... xyrfpr.gif

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like a train, an undevloping train

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

[calculatedrisk]

:sleeping:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN

Yep, nice looking convection but buried in the ITCZ.

[rainstorm]

the problem is you can see the circ of the wave north of the itcz, but its dry as a bone due to african dust

[curtadams]

One thing holding it back though - nasty mid-level shear below 10N http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

[HUC]

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ RRROROOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNN,but as every year i do prepare seriously because,you never know when this poor little poofing wave may become THE HURRICANE of which you will remember your entire life.
So a great respect for Mother Nature,and also for the scientists that are trying to understand these phenomenon....

[Derek Ortt]

The 850mb vorticity map does not depict a TC. The SLP field depicts the TC. Your map is an MLC, not a LLC

[SouthFloridawx]

The 850mb vorticity map does not depict a TC. The SLP field depicts the TC. Your map is an MLC, not a LLC

Who are you talking to?

[MWatkins]

Not sure why this didnt come up earlier...or why I didnt look at it...but QUIKSCAT imagery from 4PM EDT (20Z) shows a plain as day closed circulation approaching 30W way down around 8N:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

It's tilted SW to NE bit it's there...closed and all.

Recent satellite imagery from this evening shows increasing convection in the area...and that tumbling...deepening convective signature we've come so familiar with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

The 0Z GFS is pretty aggressive with development and the 0Z NOGAPS...while not as aggressive has the same general idea.

Hmmm...looks like this has a shot. We will see if it gets outlooked...

MW


I actually did bring it up in another thred/ We started to talk about it last night in this thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88424

Was being specific to the plain as day closed-looking circulation in the QCSAT imagery...not all of the other factors mentioned in the other thread...sorry if I may have started a thread when the QS post could have gone under the other one...

MW

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E ATLC ALONG 32W S OF 20N MOVING W
20 KT. THE SFC LOW THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED ON THIS WAVE HAS
BEEN DROPPED AS THE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE OPENED. BROAD
LOW-MID LEVEL TURNING IS NOTED ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS
EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF SAHARAN DUST WHICH IS LIKELY LIMITING
ANY CONVECTION NEAR THE AXIS N OF 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 28W-40W.



2 PM Discussion.

The low pressure was dropped.

[wxmann_91]

Too much SAL and dry air. If that clears though, and this disturbance stays low enough to make it, this could develop quickly.

[caneman]

Not sure why this didnt come up earlier...or why I didnt look at it...but QUIKSCAT imagery from 4PM EDT (20Z) shows a plain as day closed circulation approaching 30W way down around 8N:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

It's tilted SW to NE bit it's there...closed and all.

Recent satellite imagery from this evening shows increasing convection in the area...and that tumbling...deepening convective signature we've come so familiar with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

The 0Z GFS is pretty aggressive with development and the 0Z NOGAPS...while not as aggressive has the same general idea.

Hmmm...looks like this has a shot. We will see if it gets outlooked...

MW


I actually did bring it up in another thred/ We started to talk about it last night in this thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88424

Was being specific to the plain as day closed-looking circulation in the QCSAT imagery...not all of the other factors mentioned in the other thread...sorry if I may have started a thread when the QS post could have gone under the other one...

MW

OK, Sorry. Models still seem to like this one. Looks like someone turned on the light switch

[ThunderMate]

Ok, here is a IR image of the east atlantic... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

What are we looking at here in terms of strength of these waves and development.
Even though dry air is around isn't going to stay north of the waves and sort not have that much of an impact on theme? Also, which wave has a better chance and do you all see at least one of these developing? Thanks.

They both look really good in terms of convection but does either one have a LLC with it?

[wxmann_91]

What are we looking at here in terms of strength of these waves and development.
Even though dry air is around isn't going to stay north of the waves and sort not have that much of an impact on theme? Also, which wave has a better chance and do you all see at least one of these developing? Thanks.

They both look really good in terms of convection but does either one have a LLC with it?

From my amateur perspective, the one on the right has a pretty potent MLC, but doesn't look like a LLC. The one to the left has lost the LLC it had yesterday. Also, the one on the left has been flattened, classic indications of SAL/dry air intrusion. The one off Africa just has that "look" of another collapsation as it hits the water. The thunderstorms just look like they're going to separate from each other and then implode into outflow boundaries (LL divergence - BAD).

My two pennies. I may be wrong here but I'm not going to be optimistic about development until the SAL leaves.