Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

[stormtruth]

I agree, TWC has forgotten that their station is supposed to be focused on weather.

They've become somewhat of a lifestyle channel in addition to having some weather info.

[Weatherfreak14]

I agree, TWC has forgotten that their station is supposed to be focused on weather.

They've become somewhat of a lifestyle channel in addition to having some weather info.

I was thinking that yesterday, they need to be on pure weather, not how to grow flowers or install a door on your house.

[ROCK]

A counter-clockwise turning is evident near 14N-82W this morning - very near the east coast of Nic. Probably an MLC but if convection holds today this looks like the next investigation. None of the globals develop anything on todays runs - but most storms that form are never picked up initially by models.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

First Visible loop seem to confirm this, but we should be safe, take alook at the steering currents.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm2.GIF

steering currents attm......but what about 3-4 days from now?

[Stratosphere747]

The problem is too many times we keep hearing, "Joe B thinks this is a WGOM threat"

Through out the season this has come up over multiple systems, not just one or two. I admit that I am no Joe B. fan, but in his defense we only occasionally hear his "summarizations" or somebody’s interpation of them.

Again in this case we hear "On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this."

Why is this a WGOM threat? What are the synoptics and reasoning’s?

By making such general statements such as this, only gives the non Joe B. group reasons to question and in some cases bash. If anyone of us here makes such a broad case for a threat, you can bet that many times they are jumped on and asked to give some sort of sound reasoning on why this is the case.

Joe B's thoughts should be no different, and I can only assume that his thread and better details of what he actually felt have ceased because he or accuweather no longer consented? Otherwise generalizations of his "outlook" will promote skepticism, and IMO rightfully so without some type of explanation.

This is NOT a Joe B. bash or should be seen as such. Just something that should give a bit of insight to the Joe fans on why at times many here, have reservations on his thinking. Actually I’m *hard to believe* defending him, because we never know without a pro subscription on what exactly the man is really saying.

Scott

[Lindaloo]

Okay folks. This bashing has got to stop. Please go to the Rules Forum and re-read the rules on this issue.

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

13. Repeated warnings alone could result in suspension or permanent banning from Storm2K.org.

[wxman57]

The upper low is fading in the NW Caribbean now. Outflow is improving over a large cluster of storms east of Nicaragua. Definitely something to keep a close eye on for the next 24 hours or so. Things are developing pretty much as the models had indicated.

[skysummit]

LSU's color IR. Look to the east also...you can see the ITCZ cooking up nicely too.

[Lindaloo]

Sorry, just my opinion not really an accusation. He just seems to be more
entertainment to me. I guess that's why he keeps his job at accuweather.

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy being entertained. The Weather Channel is really just a lot of entertainment as well isn't it.

Got to pay for the air time somehow.

You need to check your PM's.

[Stratosphere747]

The upper low is fading in the NW Caribbean now. Outflow is improving over a large cluster of storms east of Nicaragua. Definitely something to keep a close eye on for the next 24 hours or so. Things are developing pretty much as the models had indicated.

How is the longer range outlooks for the Highs over Texas and Florida 57?

[Dean4Storms]

Strangely most of the models such as GFS, Euro, CMC, e.t.c... have all backed off on developing this system. So the best thing for now is too just keep an eye on it and see what if anything develops down there.

Steve Lyons mentioned it earlier stating that the UL winds are too hostile for anything to develop and that the LL flow will take this into central America.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The problem is too many times we keep hearing, "Joe B thinks this is a WGOM threat"

Through out the season this has come up over multiple systems, not just one or two. I admit that I am no Joe B. fan, but in his defense we only occasionally hear his "summarizations" or somebody’s interpation of them.

Again in this case we hear "On JB's evening zone idea, he said that zone 12 (TX zone) needs to watch the tropics during mid to late part of next week. Seems like he continues to think a western Gulf threat is coming from this."

Why is this a WGOM threat? What are the synoptics and reasoning’s?

By making such general statements such as this, only gives the non Joe B. group reasons to question and in some cases bash. If anyone of us here makes such a broad case for a threat, you can bet that many times they are jumped on and asked to give some sort of sound reasoning on why this is the case.

Joe B's thoughts should be no different, and I can only assume that his thread and better details of what he actually felt have ceased because he or accuweather no longer consented? Otherwise generalizations of his "outlook" will promote skepticism, and IMO rightfully so without some type of explanation.

This is NOT a Joe B. bash or should be seen as such. Just something that should give a bit of insight to the Joe fans on why at times many here, have reservations on his thinking. Actually I’m *hard to believe* defending him, because we never know without a pro subscription on what exactly the man is really saying.

Scott

One thing to remember though is that all those systems really did end up being western GOM systems. Just becuase they were never named, doesn't mean they didn't get to the places he forecasted them to go. Remember all those flooding lows in May, June and July? Those were all called for in advance by JB.

[MortisFL]

If anything, shear will become less hostile in the western carib. If its flaring up this well now, imagine in 24-48 hrs when conditions are even better suited.

[Steve]

>>Joe B's thoughts should be no different, and I can only assume that his thread and better details of what he actually felt have ceased because he or accuweather no longer consented? Otherwise generalizations of his "outlook" will promote skepticism, and IMO rightfully so without some type of explanation.

The explanation costs money. Most everyone here who is over 21 and following storms on the web for a long time can remember that there are extensive daily (and occasionally multi-daily) writeups. But you have to pay for those. The snippets are valuable for those of us who remember the caveats along with the detailed descriptions. Saying "Joe B thinks this could be a western Gulf threat" says enough to me to understand what his thinking is (right or wrong) about that threat. I can go look at the upper patterns, players on the field, etc. and get an idea of what he's seeing. And yes, I'm as rank an amateur as anyone on here.



Steve

[bayoubebe]

Where did my post go? I know I posted on here last night.

You posted in the other GOM thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=300

Thanks for pointing that out. Didn't realize there were 2 GOM threads.

[Lindaloo]

LOL bayou, happens all the time.

[bayoubebe]

What, IN YOUR OPINION, are the chances for further development?

[Lindaloo]

IMO, I hope nothing develops at all.

[skysummit]

16:15 image shows a "regeneration" of convection...

[MortisFL]

Whatever is left of the vortex seems to hook towards the North central gulf before dissipating in the 12z GFS run.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Steve]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html

Storms +/- Noon CDT are about the strongest they have been since the thread was started. I applaud wxman57 for expert [tm] timing and recognition of potential. As you said, 20-30% chance of development, but if there was a place to look this weekend for a spark...

You nailed it man.

/bigbow

Steve