Will TPC classify it TD or TS before recon goes?

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cycloneye
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Will TPC classify it TD or TS before recon goes?

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jun 14, 2003 8:16 pm

It looks like a TD as I type this post at 9:15 PM but will they wait for ship reports and recon or will they go ahead and classify it rapidly?
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#2 Postby OtherHD » Sat Jun 14, 2003 8:26 pm

They may not decide to wait to upgrade to TD, but they'll probably wait to make it a TS till Recon goes in.
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#3 Postby mf_dolphin » Sat Jun 14, 2003 8:42 pm

With it close to land I have to agree with HD. TD tonight or in the morning but they'll wait for TS until recon has been in. I still haven't seen a Quikscat that shows a closed low yet.
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#4 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Jun 14, 2003 9:31 pm

Theres only a broad low, no closed center. In fact, Dvorak estimates cannot even be made now, so this has become more disorganized surface wise, but watch further to the north, could easily see a reformation
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#5 Postby wx247 » Sat Jun 14, 2003 9:43 pm

A TD maybe, but I agree with HD and Marshall that they will wait until Recon. gets in there before they place a name to it, if they do.
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#6 Postby vbhoutex » Sun Jun 15, 2003 2:32 am

By 11am I think we will probably have TD#3 on our hands. As TWW pointed out the convection is already starting to fire again and should start to wrap around the center of circulation as this sytem organizes and stacks. In the convection to the N, as SF said there are winds in the 30 kt range already(not that unusual). Some possible outflow is also noted along the N edges of the current convection which is currently displaced N of the developing circulation center. Even though the low is elongated now everything should start to pull together in the morning and the beginnings of TS Bill, if not TS Bill himself will be much more evident than they currently are.
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Recon

#7 Postby jabber » Sun Jun 15, 2003 8:52 am

I think they will wait. The visuals are not that impressive and the scat does not show a complete LLC IMHO
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