QUIKSCAT + Recent Satellite Imagery + Model Support = ?

[MWatkins]

Not sure why this didnt come up earlier...or why I didnt look at it...but QUIKSCAT imagery from 4PM EDT (20Z) shows a plain as day closed circulation approaching 30W way down around 8N:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

It's tilted SW to NE bit it's there...closed and all.

Recent satellite imagery from this evening shows increasing convection in the area...and that tumbling...deepening convective signature we've come so familiar with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

The 0Z GFS is pretty aggressive with development and the 0Z NOGAPS...while not as aggressive has the same general idea.

Hmmm...looks like this has a shot. We will see if it gets outlooked...

MW

***added link to satellite loop***

[Jim Cantore]

Mike, is that the wave that we talked about on Talkin Tropics that the GFS was taking close to NJ in *sighs* 15 days?

['CaneFreak]

Yeah....good points there Mike....looks like we have a possible developing situation out in the deep tropics area...low wind shear and a well defined LLC....something we have not seen all season long....lets see what happens over the next couple of days....lets see if we dont atleast get an invest out of this one....

Todd Ferebee
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wxmann_91]

There is one caveat to this system. If it develops, it will deepen and enlarge itself, as well as start moving more poleward. This will begin the infiltration of the dry SAL air from the outbreak this morning, into the circulation. The KEY to this system, is if the wave to the northeast can sacrifice itself by moistening the atmosphere a bit and moderating the SAL.

['CaneFreak]

Actually, I dont think the GFS has had this system hitting land at all over the past several runs...

[wxmann_91]

Actually, I dont think the GFS has had this system hitting land at all over the past several runs...

The latest 0Z run is way nuts. Has the wave to the northeast developing as well, and then making it plow through a ridge of high pressure. In the end it reenforces the Bermuda High.

Haven't looked at the Ensembles...but suspect this run may be wrong. Better to look at the synoptics which will steer this system. However, still too early to tell.

But you are right, many runs have taken this very close to the EC, but never actually hitting it, IIRC.

['CaneFreak]

Its better to use the GFS for patterns than it is to use it for cyclogenesis...Mike Watkins has said this many MANY times.....

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

8-8.5 north/31 west moving westward. Looks like we got a serious one now. About time. Convection deeping over the system center...Which the last 3 or 4 did not have this. Inflow into the southern part of the system...I would not be suprized if this LLC strengthen pretty fast by the looks of it. Already mostly to all closed LLC. I say we have a Depression by tomarrow morning if this keeps up. But nhc will wait intill Monday morning likely.

Then its at a low lat so it will likely start moving west-northwest by 24-36 hours. As the whole starts forming. This remembers me of some storm I know. Good Catch MW!

[calculatedrisk]

Moving into warner waters tonight too: Atlantic SST

[SouthFloridawx]

Something from one of your previous posts Mike.

Is it trying to show a fish or more of a turn back to the west again?

It shows it coming to a complete stop...which is suspect...given the strange indentations the GFS is making in the 500MB ridge in the central Atlantic.
NOGAPS is also on board through 60 hours...especially in the mid levels...bringing some sort of system near 40W at t+60.
Really want to see how the other globals are handling the 500MB level in the central Atlantic...but for now I wouldn't put too much into the GFS solution after 5 days.
Or before 5 days for that matter...
MW

The 205am Disco has a 1009 MB low with the wave at 30 west... interestingly enough.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_00Z.gif

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0415 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS ALONG 28W S OF 20N
WITH A 1009 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N MOVING W 15-20 KT. LOW
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH AN INVERTED-V CURVATURE
OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE
ITCZ AXIS.





EDIT:
It's possible that the wave behind this is going to be the sacrifice wave keeping any dry air or sal from inhibiting development. Is this the birth of Debby? wxman91... I just noticed you mentioned about the sacrificing of the wave to the NE of this system.

P.S. This is merely conjecture at this point. We would have to see persistent convection in around the low for the next day or so.

[SouthFloridawx]

Starting to look very nice on satelite this evening...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rb.html

This should be Invest 96L by tomorrow evening if the convection can persist. Especially with 1009mb low associated with it and the wave.

It is moving into warmer waters from here on out.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

This wave and low associated with it is moving into a more favorable area for development. IMO

We've get surface convergence as evidendece of the 850mb maps.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QUNA00.jpg

It has also moved into an area of Upper Level Divergent air.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/QHQA17.jpg

It looks like those two conditions are enhancing convection this evening. If this convection persists this is gonna get interesting.

GFS indicates little to no shear over the system through 24 hours.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024m.gif

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



Looks like we are seeing a developing cyclone at 8-8.5 north/31 west...Moving westward at around 10 knots. Quickscats a few hours ago shown a closed LLC with 20 to 25 knot winds. Also convection been holding over the center...If that keeps up happening, and it stays away from the SAL...The shear looks light. I see this becoming Debby in about 24 to 36 hours. I think it will be a depression by tomarrow afternoon at this rate....The models try to form a weakness int he ridge...Which is caused by a shortwave passing to its north...Which pulls the system northward. But I think this will be a short term event unlike the Gfs 00z tonight....I think it will likely rise to 15 or so north at 45 to 50 west...But then turn back westward or west-northwestward. This thing reminds me of Irene,Frances,Floyd,Georges,Andrew. I mean track not strength like at least not yet. The CMC,Nogaps also are showing this developing.

The reason I noted Irene is because it could become alot like her if that SAL stays in place. But if this stays low enough, or the SAL moves out then this thing could get alot stronger. Gfs and nogaps shows devleopment with this. GFS shows the two systems moving around each other. Which is amazing.

Wave 2# Moving off Africa...A few models show it developing to. So its worth watching.



Edited by Lindaloo to place the proper disclaimer

[caneman]

[quote="MWatkins"]Not sure why this didnt come up earlier...or why I didnt look at it...but QUIKSCAT imagery from 4PM EDT (20Z) shows a plain as day closed circulation approaching 30W way down around 8N:

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png

It's tilted SW to NE bit it's there...closed and all.

Recent satellite imagery from this evening shows increasing convection in the area...and that tumbling...deepening convective signature we've come so familiar with.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

The 0Z GFS is pretty aggressive with development and the 0Z NOGAPS...while not as aggressive has the same general idea.

Hmmm...looks like this has a shot. We will see if it gets outlooked...

MW


I actually did bring it up in another thred/ We started to talk about it last night in this thread.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=88424

[Scorpion]

However, the 06z does nothing with this.

[caneman]

However, the 06z does nothing with this.

Excuse me, it most certainly does

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Kennethb]

Looks a little awkward, with 2 systems developing so close to each other. Regardless the Atlantic basin is about ready to fire up.

[Hyperstorm]

This is the same wave that most of us have been monitoring that came off Africa a few days ago. Mike, I thought you were more impressed with the one about to move off Africa.

Anyway, you could see that this wave had good potential as it exited the coast with re-firing of convection as soon as it hit the waters. The system moved off with lots of mid-level cyclonic turning as well as seemingly favorable conditions. It's taken its time, but it should be ready to do something soon.

Although I don't take model forecasts too seriously before any development, the GFS may be on to something with developing this system as it has for the past several days.

I'll be watching...

[cycloneye]

This is the same wave that most of us have been monitoring that came off Africa a few days ago. Mike, I thought you were more impressed with the one about to move off Africa.

Anyway, you could see that this wave had good potential as it exited the coast with re-firing of convection as soon as it hit the waters. The system moved off with lots of mid-level cyclonic turning as well as seemingly favorable conditions. It's taken its time, but it should be ready to do something soon.

Although I don't take model forecasts too seriously before any development, the GFS may be on to something with developing this system as it has for the past several days.

I'll be watching...

Hyperstorm,what about the wave behind that you said yesterday it looked very good with a circulation at 15n.Did it went more south this morning?

[Hyperstorm]

Cycloneye...

I see that the wave moved WSW as it is ready to move off land. It has a fairly impressive circulation that is still just inland near 12N-13N. Convection is re-firing offshore before the low hits the waters, so we might be on to something here as well.

Tropics are waking up...