neutral conditions???

[willjnewton]

Why do you all here on storm2k keep on saying that a el nino is going to form???because looking at the eastern pacific on the sea surface temperature map overall that was updated today on the 19th of august says overall neutral conditions and the latest Forecast models that got updated in August from the IRI, climate prediction center said neutral.so why are you guys saying el nino will form???please explain, okay, thankyou

[Jim Cantore]

There was a La Nina From about October to April and it's re warming from that.

And also, it's not JUST whats at the surface, there is alot of warming below the surface, which is an indicator. And I believe that central pacific activity is an indicator (correct me if I'm wrong) And we have a depression out there now

El Nino and La Nina are mysterious, we have alot to learn about them. How ever I think we have a 50-60% chance of an El Nino forming by the end of the season.

[wxmann_91]

Why do you all here on storm2k keep on saying that a el nino is going to form???because looking at the eastern pacific on the sea surface temperature map overall that was updated today on the 19th of august says overall neutral conditions and the latest Forecast models that got updated in August from the IRI, climate prediction center said neutral.so why are you guys saying el nino will form???please explain, okay, thankyou

It's not sea surface temperature, it's subsurface temperature.

Also, today's SOI is down to -32.

And the comment about CPAC systems, yes, there's an inverse relationship between E/CPAC systems and Atlantic systems. First and foremost, global wind cells and circulations dictate shear, and it just so happens that increased convection/decreased OLR (outgoing longwave radiation) along the Date Line signal an intensification of the subtropical jet/shear in the MDR of the Atlantic, and a decrease of shear in the Pacific. This is why an El Nino kills Atlantic storms, since the higher SST's cause stronger and more numerous convection along the Date Line.

[Jim Cantore]

Heres a map showing the sub surface warming

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[kevin]

You already have a thread on this.

[ziggy1122]

Quite a few threads discussing El Nino.