Atlantic Waves / Model Indications

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Meso
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Atlantic Waves / Model Indications

#1 Postby Meso » Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:37 pm

I did not see a new thread about this topic after the locked one...

The 12z of the Nogaps,MM5,GFS all develop a closed low from one of these waves exiting africa,and the CMC closes it off and fluctuates between pressure... Although it doesn't seem to be as big as the GFS was first indicating it seems like the others are hinting at a small system ?

CMC model run
MM5 model run
Nogaps model run
GFS model run

Shear Off African Coast
African Coast Sat Image
SAL Image
Last edited by Meso on Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 19, 2006 2:47 pm

Good from you to make the new thread as the models are jumping on different scenarios on distint areas.
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#3 Postby HenkL » Sat Aug 19, 2006 3:49 pm

The ECMWF model has a developing system SW of the Cape Verde Islands, starting around Tuesday. Both the 00Z and the 12Z run from today are consistent about this development.
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#4 Postby miamicanes177 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 6:02 pm

GFS again develops the wave off africa...995mb at 384 hours.
image
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 19, 2006 6:09 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Here is the loop of the 18z GFS.
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#6 Postby caneman » Sat Aug 19, 2006 7:04 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/index_ten_l_loop.shtml

Here is the loop of the 18z GFS.

Just saw it. Looks like a deep one.
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#7 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 7:12 pm

miamicanes177 wrote:GFS again develops the wave off africa...995mb at 384 hours.
image


There is a zero percent of this verifying... good entertainment, though.
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#8 Postby OURAGAN » Sat Aug 19, 2006 8:07 pm

May be the wave at 30W to watch, convection is increasing:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg
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#9 Postby calculatedrisk » Sat Aug 19, 2006 8:16 pm

OURAGAN wrote:May be the wave at 30W to watch, convection is increasing:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg


I think that is the wave to watch for now. Here is the Meteosat 8 view.
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#10 Postby Cyclenall » Sat Aug 19, 2006 8:19 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
miamicanes177 wrote:GFS again develops the wave off africa...995mb at 384 hours.
image


There is a zero percent of this verifying... good entertainment, though.

It's not 0% because anything is possible in the Atlantic basin. I think 2005 backs this claim.
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#11 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 19, 2006 8:56 pm

calculatedrisk wrote:
OURAGAN wrote:May be the wave at 30W to watch, convection is increasing:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg


I think that is the wave to watch for now. Here is the Meteosat 8 view.


Nice view...Well, guess only time will tell. Hehe, it's funny only seeing such a small amount of people online here, kinda like it is in the middle of Winter time..

Well, back to playing World of Warcraft :wink: . thate game keeps me busy when the tropics are slow.
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#12 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:11 pm

TAFB=1010 low near 9N 39W in 72 hours...
Image
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#13 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 9:13 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

The Diurnal Maximum is really kicking in, more reds are starting to appear on IR.
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#14 Postby ThunderMate » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:50 pm

Looks nice tonight. 00z GFS should be coming out shortly.
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#15 Postby MWatkins » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:50 pm

It's out...through 54 hours anyway...and bullish on the wave at 30 and the one behind it...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_054m.gif

MW
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#16 Postby ThunderMate » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:54 pm

hey, i like that map>> :lol:
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#17 Postby MWatkins » Sat Aug 19, 2006 11:16 pm

GFS has a very well defined vortex sitting around 15/50 by day 5...moving NW so far. Of course from here it's all speculation...but looking at the model and lining up the satellite imagery...things may very well be getting started.

Here is the day 5 500MB chart:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

Note the system is reflecting nicely at 500MB...getting drawn northwestward by a shortwave passing by and perhaps a weakness created by the system the GFS is also developing east of 40W.

MW
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#18 Postby ThunderMate » Sat Aug 19, 2006 11:24 pm

Is it trying to show a fish or more of a turn back to the west again?
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#19 Postby Hurricaneman » Sat Aug 19, 2006 11:33 pm

ThunderMate wrote:Is it trying to show a fish or more of a turn back to the west again?


It shows a turn back to the west, then fish around 70w
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#20 Postby MWatkins » Sat Aug 19, 2006 11:34 pm

ThunderMate wrote:Is it trying to show a fish or more of a turn back to the west again?


It shows it coming to a complete stop...which is suspect...given the strange indentations the GFS is making in the 500MB ridge in the central Atlantic.

NOGAPS is also on board through 60 hours...especially in the mid levels...bringing some sort of system near 40W at t+60.

Really want to see how the other globals are handling the 500MB level in the central Atlantic...but for now I wouldn't put too much into the GFS solution after 5 days.

Or before 5 days for that matter...

MW
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