Cooler in southern Plains?

Extremeweatherguy · #1 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:29 pm

After a few days of Accuweather forecasts showing highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s for Houston in about a week or week and a half, it seems that the month may end on a cool note. The CPC now also seems to agree. Take a look at their 8-14 day prediction.. It shows a good chance of below normal temperatures for much of the south:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... mp.new.gif

Also, it shows most of TX/LA in an increased risk of wet weather. That would be nice as well:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predic ... cp.new.gif

Let's hope this all verifies!

BTW, the latest Accuweather forecast for north Houston shows a low of 64F on August 29th!

bob rulz · #2 Postby **bob rulz** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:45 am

What's the average low for this time of year in Houston?

Extremeweatherguy · #3 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 8:40 am

bob rulz wrote:What's the average low for this time of year in Houston?

About 72-73F, but lately we have been as warm as 77-80F for lows. A low in the lower to middle 60s would be a big change.

southerngale · #4 Postby **southerngale** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 12:11 pm

No more wet weather....pleeeeeeeeeease! I want to get some swimming days in before fall. I usually get to swim all summer, but due to all the rain, haven't even been able to a handful of times. Nearly every opportunity has been met with a rainy day, dirtying the pool and throwing it off balance.

Anyway, if I can get some swimming days in, I'm all for an early fall with cooler temps...it's been HOT! Plus, early fronts will keep the hurricanes away!

txtwister · #5 Postby **txtwister** » Sun Aug 20, 2006 2:02 pm

southerngale wrote:No more wet weather....pleeeeeeeeeease! I want to get some swimming days in before fall. I usually get to swim all summer, but due to all the rain, haven't even been able to a handful of times. Nearly every opportunity has been met with a rainy day, dirtying the pool and throwing it off balance.

Anyway, if I can get some swimming days in, I'm all for an early fall with cooler temps...it's been HOT! Plus, early fronts will keep the hurricanes away!

Well, here in DFW we say bring the rain on. We will take it. I think after living so long without, we will appreciate every drop we get.

southerngale · #6 Postby **southerngale** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 12:40 am

Yeah, I'm well aware that y'all need it up there, while we've had several flooding events down here. I wish we could send some of our excess that way. Unfortunately, I can't figure out how!! It's a shame that people have flooded down here this summer while y'all have desperately needed rain. If only we could control the weather...

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 6:21 am

Looking at the maps this morning, it looks to me like they are saying above normal temps and normal precip. Have they changed since you posted this?

#8 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 8:53 am

We haven't had any real rain since July 4th here in Austin. Vegetation and brush are more like a tinder box!

I read the Austin/San Antonio NWS forecast discussion this morning and subsequently got depressed. No rain, more triple-digit heat. Ugh. August is brutal!

#9 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 9:17 am

vbhoutex wrote:Looking at the maps this morning, it looks to me like they are saying above normal temps and normal precip. Have they changed since you posted this?

Yep, changed. Those maps are a "sliding scale" as each day begets a new 8-14 day prediction.

Extremeweatherguy · #10 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 21, 2006 3:56 pm

Hmm...CPC seems to not be pushing the cooler weather anymore.

Accuweather still shows lows in the upper 60s though next week for north Houston.

#11 Postby **jasons2k** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 1:29 pm

Those long-range AccuWx forecasts are nothing more than the GFS output translated to "user friendly" numbers and graphics. GFS was showing a cold front but as the NWS Houston said in their AM discussion "it's August".

Extremeweatherguy · #12 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 22, 2006 4:13 pm

Accuweather's long range forecast (or as jschlitz correctly said...a "user friendly" GFS output) is once again showing a cool down. By the end of next week highs dip to the lower 90s and lows to the middle 60s...then into the following week it shows highs in the middle 80s and lows in the middle 60s with rain/T-storms. Considering it shows this occuring right around the start to September...I think it may be believable. We will just have to wait and see.

BTW jschlitz: Back in mid August 2004 Houston had a morning low of 61F (59F at Tomball), so just becuase it's August doesn't mean a CF can't make it this far south.

#13 Postby **jasons2k** » Wed Aug 23, 2006 9:23 am

True, but it's very, very rare. I remember back in the 80's in Savannah GA we had a cold front come through, and the high that day was only 58. But that was an all-time record, and a very strange event.

Extremeweatherguy · #14 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 2:49 pm

Latest accuweather forecast:
Cold front comes through a week from now (Sept. 3rd), followed by a cooler and cloudy week.

During Labor day week it is showing highs in the 80-85F range and lows in the 58-63F range with cloudy skies and possible rain! If this were to play out it would be a welcome relief!

Being that this is now only a week out, I am more inclined to believe it could actually happen. I guess we shall see..

aggiecutter · #15 Postby **aggiecutter** » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:50 pm

The CPC guidance is showing for the 3rd day in a row below temps for the southern plains. Here is today's probability scheme:

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/

Extremeweatherguy · #16 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Aug 28, 2006 5:35 pm

Upcoming Houston, TX fronts:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/98f.gif
^^First front to come through tomorrow or Wednesday with lows possibly into the 60s north of I-10 on Thursday and Friday night. Main impact will be lower humidity.^^

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/9mh.gif
^^2nd, stronger front comes through this next Sunday. Highs early next week could dip as low as the 83-86F range with lows into the upper 50s and lower 60s north of I-10 and into the middle 60's downtown^^

A pleasant 5-10 days looks to be in store! These type of fronts didn't make it to us until late September/early October last year!

BTW, the average high/low in Houston during early September is..

Avg. High - 91F < avg. for first 10 days of month.
Avg. Low - 71F <avg. for first 10 days of month.

COLDEST ever September High - 66F (9/26/65)
COLDEST ever September Low - 46F (9/27/42)

Extremeweatherguy · #17 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 2:53 pm

check out these overnight lows forecasted for Spring, TX!

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. North wind around 5 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 68.

And there is a chance it could even get cooler than that. This will be a nice change from the upper 70s to near 80F lows we have seen recently.

Extremeweatherguy · #18 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 29, 2006 11:09 pm

According to the latest HPC graphic and NWS reports, the CF is now almost to College station! Should be to Houston by tomorrow morning!

#19 Postby **gboudx** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 10:14 am

DFW hit 67 this morning with 63 forecasted for tomorrow morning. It was nice driving to work with the windows down and giving the A/C a break.

Cooler in southern Plains?

Cooler in southern Plains?

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