So Much for Hurricane Season 2006...

[MWatkins]

Thank you for clicking to read this post, and welcome.

I couldn't come up with a better title...and this is not aimed at any one person or anything. Hey we need something to discuss...but I am getting a little frustrated at all of the frustration about this season so far. So, I'm gonna vent and rant a little.

For some reason, and I don't exactly understand why, the entire tropical weather community all the way up to the mets on TV...are fixated on how the basin looks right this second. Please see every other post in this forum for examples.

But...everyone seems to be forgetting that the atmosphere is not a steady state system. It's just not. It doesn't work that way. Here are some common issues that are coming up over and over and over again...and my thoughts on them.


Issue 1: Conditions are Really Hostile in the Atlantic Now

Uhm, yeah. That's why there isn't tropical development in the Atlantic right now. We have plenty of preexisting disturbances to choose from, plenty of warm water. But the thermodynamics aren't there yet...and even if they were the upper environment is hostile. I'll address the moisture thing soon, but the atmisphere will not stay like it is now for the entire fall. That brings me directly to

Issue 2: The Models Arent Seeing Development, so There Will be No Hurricanes in August This Year!

The models are being completly misused here. They have never been very good at sniffing out cyclogenesis. Using them to detect the next cyclone to develop is like using 1970's radar to find a tornado. You may get lucky and find the hook...but most of the time it doesn't work.

Instead of using the models to find cyclogenesis, let's work the problem the other way. Yes the environment is hostile, but what are the models forecasting to happen to the environment for the next few days?

For example...shear. Here's the 850MB vs 250MB shear map from the 12Z GFS for this morning at 8AM:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=000hr

Westerlies all over the place. Especially the western 1/2 of the basin.

But it's not going to persist forever and ever...ignoring the eastern Atlantic for a spell because the GFS is doing some funky stuff with the next wave out there...take a look at the western Atlantic...especially the Caribbean 5 days from now:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=120hr

Wow! Magically, the westerlies have worked out of the Caribbean!

Issue 3: Oh No! The SAL Will Destroy All Convection in the Atlantic!

Again, no. Looks like the current "outbreak" is coming to an and and is moving out to the west. This bubble looks a lot like an outbreak that occured in July of last year. Le's look back to this using a write up on the JPL's website and look at the Quiktime movie:

http://www-airs.jpl.nasa.gov/Multimedia ... DustCloud/

Compared to now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

Click on the -3 hours box till you go all the way back to the start...then click on the forward button and watch the evolution of the so called SAL. It's pinching off on the east side and moving westward.

Oh...and that too will ultimately moderate some as it moves west. It will not persist forever in the Atlantic.

This season is going to go one of two ways.

1. Either it starts a little later than usual and gets very active where we get a burst of development for a 4 week period starting soon...

Or

2. Some magical force has enveloped the Atlantic (maybe Global warming?) All of the things we think we know about the tropical atmosphere need to be thrown out and new text books will need to be written. Dr Gray will have to retire, NOAA and all fo the smart people who do thier outlook will resign in shame and Phil K will claim Dr. Gray made him write that outlook...so at least he'll have some grant money to work with. And Judith Curry's preseason prediction of 20+ named stoms this season will still be laughed at.

I think the odds are highly in favor of option 1.

MW

***Edited to fix option 1***

[DanKellFla]

[AJC3]

Just to add to what Mike so eloquently stated...

Before you state your opinion on how favorable or unfavorable you think a certain TC genesis parameter is, or has become over the course of the season, why not go to this excellent web site:

Experimental Tropical Cyclone Parameters for the Tropical Atlantic and Western Caribbean

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... enesis.asp

[cycloneye]

Excellent post Mike that says it all.

[ThunderMate]

Mike.....Your a BEAST!!

['CaneFreak]

Excellent post Mike...wish you would post here more often...might give us all a little boost of confidence in our forecasting abilities......LOL.....

[msbee]

thumbs up on that thoughful analysis!

[jabber]

Very well said... as always.

[OuterBanker]

Thank you Mike. Although I REALLY would like think it is over

[hawkeh]

Good post

[hurricanetrack]

Hey, there is always 2007 or even 2008.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Excellent Analysis!

[HUC]

Than'ks for the lesson,really.

[jlauderdal]

Hey, there is always 2007 or even 2008.

and 2006, this season has alot of life left except for texas since statistically their chances of getting hit are now declining.

[SCMedic]

Season still cancel...






Ps... Very well put. I completely agree, and my frustration over some of the more ignorant posts has been overflowing...

[Toadstool]

heh, I agree with you Mike... the season is going to pick up, but glad it's calm as long as possible.

[vacanechaser]

its over... give it up... we have seen the last of the hurricanes in 2006... ohhh we havent had any!!!

could be the peak of the season is now in late september or october... will have to see...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[x-y-no]

Good post, Mike.

Regarding misuse of the models, I'll repost a little quote from Jeff Masters' blog which I quoted in another thread this morning which I think catches the flavor of it:

1) If two or more of the reliable models (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, UKMET) are forecasting develoment, watch out.

2) If none of the reliable models are forecasting development, watch out. The models miss most tropical storm development.

3) If just one of the reliable models is forecasting development, you can probably discount it.

I'm as guilty as the next guy of pointing out when models develop systems (sometimes in the absurdly long range) but I guess I don't make it clear enough that this is mainly a matter of fairly idle interest (one might even say entertainment) until it gets to the point of multiple model support combined with good synoptic support.

Things are a little slower coming together this year than I expected, but not dramatically so. If we're all still sitting here in two or three weeks waiting for the season to start, then I'll be ready to say something radical is going on.

Jan

[ROCK]

Hey, there is always 2007 or even 2008.

and 2006, this season has alot of life left except for texas since statistically their chances of getting hit are now declining.

really bold statement since the season really hasn't started per se.....

[Galvestongirl]

this season has alot of life left except for texas since statistically their chances of getting hit are now declining.

boy, I made the mistake of saying that hurrican season for my area would end at the end of August last year.........boy was I wrong, statistics may dictate one thing, the the weather dictates another!