Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

#181 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:24 am

MortisFL wrote:Once the shear relaxes to its north, this could get its act together in a hurry.

That's what I'm thinking also. Shear should relax to its north and high pressure should build right over it. Once this gets into the northwestern Carribean and the Gulf, there's a good chance for rapid strengthening. I don't see anything that would affect it right now.

Only an amateur's opinion though.

Stratosphere747 · #182 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:27 am

That ULL has been parked near Cuba and Jamaica for over 4/5 days now, and looks as strong as ever....

Nimbus · #183 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:28 am

Looking at the visibles now it appears two areas of convection are flaring one at 12n 80W and a new area near 13N 76W. The 12 - 80 area has had the most persistence over time where the center develops will help determine track.

As for future track I have heard everything from Florida to Texas later in the week. I don't want to wishcast so I'm focusing on that first step the initial development. Only good news is that two centers might cause a delay in intensification.

#184 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:29 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:That ULL has been parked near Cuba and Jamaica for over 4/5 days now, and looks as strong as ever....

I totally missed that one on my ULL thread. Thanks

Rainband · #185 Postby **Rainband** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:31 am

Last models I saw said it was an appalachacolla threat. Wouldn't 93L would weaken the high and make this a eastern threat? Either way the models have backed off from what I have seen.

Johnny · #186 Postby **Johnny** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:31 am

The area of interest is looking good this morning. Any updates from the pro mets here on storm2k?

MortisFL · #187 Postby **MortisFL** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:34 am

Even if shear remains in that same spot, if it can fight it the NW carib is alot more favorable.

Extremeweatherguy · #188 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 10:43 am

Rainband wrote:Last models I saw said it was an appalachacolla threat. Wouldn't 93L would weaken the high and make this a eastern threat? Either way the models have backed off from what I have seen.

I wouldn't really trust the models just yet. I would wait until we had a classified system before buying into their track/strength forecasts. They like to flip-flop with these non-developed systems.

beachbum_al · #189 Postby **beachbum_al** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 12:48 pm

I don't usually go by the models since most of the mets here seem not too go on them completely. But when one of them starts to get a little worry and he is one who usually doesn't get that concern over what a model says I start to wonder what is going on. And now since they are talking about it on the local stations I am keeping my guard on just in case.

Even if we get a storm I will be busy just days before it comes since relatives have two places on the beach. Actually before we leave tomorrow I think I will be pulling some patio furniture in just in case. Those precautions!

If the weather that is starting to form in that area is what the models are talking about I am going to watch it and see what is going on. No need to panic right now now.

ROCK · #190 Postby **ROCK** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 1:01 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Rainband wrote:Last models I saw said it was an appalachacolla threat. Wouldn't 93L would weaken the high and make this a eastern threat? Either way the models have backed off from what I have seen.
I wouldn't really trust the models just yet. I would wait until we had a classified system before buying into their track/strength forecasts. They like to flip-flop with these non-developed systems.

I agree EWG. It has definitely taken some shape over night. Until it organizes more we really have no glue at present where (if anywhere) this might go. I am not ready to jump on any model attm....

Stratosphere747 · #191 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:03 pm

Might be jumping the gun, and really hard to tell with the images so spaced out. But there may be something trying to get going in the general area of 13/80.

Broad if anything...

rockyman · #192 Postby **rockyman** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:22 pm

I see that turning...appears to be in the mid-levels...but could be a start...low level clouds seem unaffected so far (all moving east to west).

f5 · #193 Postby f5 » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:23 pm

wasn't the wimp name Chris suppose to have been a threat but peetered out

LaBreeze · #194 Postby **LaBreeze** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:24 pm

What's the word on shear in the area of the NW Carib. and the GOM in the next few days to the middle of next week? Is the shear expected to lessen or stay strong? If it is expected to lessen, then how soon? Local mets are not mentioning much - one stated that areas to our east "may" have to deal with some sort of tropical system. That's all I'm hearing.

Lindaloo · #195 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:34 pm

How far east LaBreeze? You can understand my concern. :lol:

Nimbus · #196 Postby **Nimbus** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:38 pm

The models that are developing this have the sheer diminishing as the ULL to the north lifts out.

The area of maximum divergence just north of 13n near 80w has a little convection starting to blossom. Not much of a clear pattern to the motion yet. Looks to me like the broad center pushed northwest from about 11n 77W to about 13n 80W over the last 24 hours.

#197 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:38 pm

La...right now there is some shear just to the north of the area of interest. Plus there's shear right over it, however it's supposed to lessen some as the moisture moves north. Once in the gulf, the gulf should be fairly favorable for development. Actually, I don't see too much to hamper development if something gets in the gulf.

#198 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:39 pm

The GFDL on the 12z 93L run does depict a rather broad but closed low in the eastern Gulf at the end of its run. We will have to see what if anything develops in the Carib. before anyone including JB can start to say what kind of system we will be looking at and where it may end up. Right now it is just speculation.

Lindaloo · #199 Postby **Lindaloo** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:48 pm

skysummit wrote:La...right now there is some shear just to the north of the area of interest. Plus there's shear right over it, however it's supposed to lessen some as the moisture moves north. Once in the gulf, the gulf should be fairly favorable for development. Actually, I don't see too much to hamper development if something gets in the gulf.

Scott, you are NOT helping me. lol.

#200 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Aug 19, 2006 4:50 pm

Lindaloo wrote:
skysummit wrote:La...right now there is some shear just to the north of the area of interest. Plus there's shear right over it, however it's supposed to lessen some as the moisture moves north. Once in the gulf, the gulf should be fairly favorable for development. Actually, I don't see too much to hamper development if something gets in the gulf.

Scott, you are NOT helping me. lol.

.

Hehehe. I dunno...this may never happen. If it doesn't, that's just another reason to get together and party again.

Possible GoM Tropical Threat next Tuesday/Wednesday?

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