Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

[mobilebay]

Matt I've been watching this for the last several hours. Even some of the NWS Discussions was saying it is better organized. I honestly believe this is a TD. I think if conditions was more favorable for intensification it would already be a TD. I still say if it's a duck call it a duck. Also noticed the the LLC has become alot more pronounced on IR2, and Jacksonville radar. I 100% sure this is a TD. I've seen them classify alot of systems that was less organized than this. JMHO

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This system is fighting 40 knots of shear...I expect the shear to decrease to about 28 to 34 knots by later today. IF the enviroment was better it would not suprize me we would be looking at a strong tropical storm already. Alot of energy keeping this thing going.

[mobilebay]

This system is fighting 40 knots of shear...I expect the shear to decrease to about 28 to 34 knots by later today. IF the enviroment was better it would not suprize me we would be looking at a strong tropical storm already. Alot of energy keeping this thing going.

I also noticed they are starting to run the model suites on it again. here are the 06Z.


993
WHXX01 KWBC 190645
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060819 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060819 0600 060819 1800 060820 0600 060820 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.4N 80.3W 28.8N 82.7W 27.6N 85.1W 26.8N 87.6W
BAMM 30.4N 80.3W 29.7N 81.9W 29.1N 83.5W 28.8N 85.3W
A98E 30.4N 80.3W 30.2N 80.8W 29.4N 82.0W 28.0N 82.8W
LBAR 30.4N 80.3W 29.6N 81.3W 29.5N 82.4W 29.6N 83.8W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 25KTS 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060821 0600 060822 0600 060823 0600 060824 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.5N 89.9W 26.9N 94.4W 27.6N 97.4W 27.6N 99.0W
BAMM 28.8N 86.8W 29.7N 89.3W 30.3N 90.2W 30.2N 90.6W
A98E 27.3N 84.0W 26.5N 86.7W 26.7N 88.2W 27.3N 88.6W
LBAR 30.0N 84.6W 31.8N 85.0W 33.2N 82.1W 35.1N 76.3W
SHIP 43KTS 50KTS 55KTS 55KTS
DSHP 38KTS 45KTS 44KTS 28KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 30.4N LONCUR = 80.3W DIRCUR = 255DEG SPDCUR = 2KT
LATM12 = 30.5N LONM12 = 79.9W DIRM12 = 221DEG SPDM12 = 1KT
LATM24 = 30.9N LONM24 = 80.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like they went to take into the gulf of Mexico. If the shear decreases down to about 20 or 25. You can just smell it that this thing wents to go big time.

[mobilebay]

Looks like they went to take into the gulf of Mexico. If the shear decreases down to about 20 or 25. You can just smell it that this thing wents to go big time.

It has a tough little LLC that was proven by recon a couple of days ago, and now by quickscat. The shear is brutal though, it's hanging in there pretty good. as the NWS Tallahassee said The thunderstorms blossomed when it hit the Gulf stream.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

delete.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I expect the shear to weaken some as the shear max moves southward. Maybe down to 28 knots from 40 knots now. I think this will cross that thin part of Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. This is no longer in really 2 days ago was not is not going to fade like it was expected. I seen depressions get upgraded in move inland just to last 6 hours...Heck I think we all have...In with the shear I expect to lower the convection could form over it as it makes landfall. I think it has some 25 knot winds...Also quickscats show a few 30 knots.

Also mobilebay it has had a well defined LLC since before the recon. Also one more thing I wonder what the Antidepression people will use now?

[mobilebay]

Matt here is the base velocity wind loop from Jacksonville. Is there really any doubt?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Here is the latest radar loop! nice spiral banding.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Theres no quastion in my mind what this thing is...Once that shear go down, in which this still has another 12 or so hours before landfall. It could start stacking by that time. This will likely get into the gulf in become a threat.

[mobilebay]

RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE
AREA CENTERED ABOUT 65 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA...NORTHEAST
FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

[Emmett_Brown]

Looking at the radar loop... the westward movement has slowed considerably. This will be creaping slowly over the gulf stream for a while today...

If the shear reduces, then we could have a short fuse development. I think that is why the NHC is mentioning an increase in organization in the TWO.

Shear is still really bad, but it's definitely not dead.

[HURAKAN]

Shear is still really bad, but it's definitely not dead.

I got lost in this part!!!!

[Emmett_Brown]

Sorry... the "it" being the LLC. The shear never seems to die this year...

Radar loop is showing a lopsided weak depression, but a depression non the less IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Thunder44]

Watch the winds this morning at this buoy south of the center and others around the area. This one reports winds sustained around 21kts or so this morning. If it's 25kts, TPC may upgrade.

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

Although further development looks very unlikely with 40kt to 50kts wind shear still over the system this morning.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Hyperstorm]

This one is what I called a true martyr. The fact that it has been persisting even longer than Chris under worse upper-level wind conditions, makes me cringe at the power of an electrifying Gulf Stream.

Usually the ones that persist under the worst possible conditions are the ones we need to keep a very watchful eye on. Reminds me of a couple major systems that did that.

If that shear gets to relax late in the period and the LLC is still alive and kicking (which I doubt, but it has surprised me so far), we could be looking at an explosive developer.

The Gulf Stream is waiting...

[StormsAhead]

Looks like the center passed over buoy 41012. It had 1010mb pressure, the lowest so far with the depression, as well as sustained wind at 24 knots at 6:30 AM.

The shear can't get any stronger, and the depression is sitting over the GS. If the shear relaxes even a little there could be strengthening, especially as it makes landfall and gets increased convergence from land.

[StrongWind]

Seems to be going just a tad South of due West and just starting to move onshore. This would keep all or parts of over land for a considerable length of time.

Wouldn't this preclude any strengthening even if shear decreases and most likely mean it's total demise?

[ronjon]

Looks like the center passed over buoy 41012. It had 1010mb pressure, the lowest so far with the depression, as well as sustained wind at 24 knots at 6:30 AM.

The shear can't get any stronger, and the depression is sitting over the GS. If the shear relaxes even a little there could be strengthening, especially as it makes landfall.

Yeah, 29.85 pressure at buoy 40 NM miles east of St Augustine. Sustained W-SW winds at 23 kts with gusts to 27 kts. The anemometer height is only 15 ft. The center of the TD appears to be just north of this buoy. I know its not "officially" a TD, but it is in my book - has been the last 2 days.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

[StormsAhead]

Seems to be going just a tad South of due West and just starting to move onshore. This would keep all or parts of over land for a considerable length of time.

Wouldn't this preclude any strengthening even if shear decreases and most likely mean it's total demise?

After it makes landfall, yes. But it's still over the water now. It won't become a tropical storm, but it could get to 30 knots, especially with coastal convergence.

[caneman]

Looks like the center passed over buoy 41012. It had 1010mb pressure, the lowest so far with the depression, as well as sustained wind at 24 knots at 6:30 AM.

The shear can't get any stronger, and the depression is sitting over the GS. If the shear relaxes even a little there could be strengthening, especially as it makes landfall.

Yeah, 29.85 pressure at buoy 40 NM miles east of St Augustine. Sustained W-SW winds at 23 kts with gusts to 27 kts. The anemometer height is only 15 ft. The center of the TD appears to be just north of this buoy. I know its not "officially" a TD, but it is in my book - has been the last 2 days.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012

I agree Wind shear or not, if it acts like like a duck, walks like a duck, then call it a duck........