Long range GFS toying with my emotions

[rsdoug1981]

In the words of the Beach Boys... Wouldn't it be nice!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

That would be a nice late August/early September front.

[bob rulz]

Ooh, that does look nice. I wonder if it will pan out...

[gboudx]

FWIW, the DFW NWS mentioned this possible front in their afternoon AFD. I don't know if they think this has a chance, or just wishful thinking that the hot and dry weather could leave. I guess, as usual, we'll see.

[rsdoug1981]

Once again, today's 12z GFS looks promising. It's been showing some cooler air filtering down for several runs now. It's showing lows here in central MS in the 60s and...dare I say 50s...past the day 10 range. I like the trends. Most importantly, it shows some seriously cold air building up in northern Canada. I like!

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow, that would be nice. Hopefully some drier, cooler air could make it to Houston. A nice dry 88-89F high with a 64-65F low would be perfect for Septmeber 1st!

[bob rulz]

It now shows a full-blown low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest at the same time it shows that hurricane moving up the East Coast (and that looks pretty menacing on the model runs). However, this is still 15 days out...a lot can and will change in that time.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

It looks like it also shows some cold air spilling into the Upper Midwest in about a week, although I don't know if I'm reading it right...I could hardly call myself an expert on reading models.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _180.shtml

So...if I'm wrong in any way then feel free to correct me. In fact, I'd encourage people correcting me...no better way to learn how to read models than to be told when I'm wrong.

[Extremeweatherguy]

15-day Accuweather forecast this afternoon shows low temps. into the middle 60s for Houston in as little as 5-10 days!

[gboudx]

EWG, I know not to bet on the accuweather forecasts, but man do I wish those verify. Days 10-15, highs for DFW in the mid-upper 80's. Sweet!

[txtwister]

EWG, I know not to bet on the accuweather forecasts, but man do I wish those verify. Days 10-15, highs for DFW in the mid-upper 80's. Sweet!

I saw that this afternoon on accuweather. If only this would pan out for DFW. It is ungodly hot up here. Between the drought and this unending heat, DFW is a tinderbox.

[rsdoug1981]

I really feel for you guys in Dallas. Here in central MS, we've been living in the 96-99 range for a while with heat indices approaching 110. Our extended forecast also has some mid to upper 80s with lows in the low 60s. My fingers are corssed for all of us. The strange part here is that highs have been running 3-4 degrees above normal with lows at or just below normal.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Latest Accuweather forecast has north Houston down to 64F on the morning of August 29th! I really hope this plays out!

[bob rulz]

Okay, now it's really toying with my emotions: it now forecasts a massive low pressure system to swoop down from Alaska by the end of the model runs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _360.shtml

[bob rulz]

Wow! *looks back at first post* Talk about a good forecast by the GFS. August 31/September 1 front...

[rsdoug1981]

Currently, Accuweather/GFS is showing lows in the low to mid 50s for central MS in the medium range. I'll enjoy looking at those numbers while they're up!

[rsdoug1981]

From Jackson, MS AFD:

GETTING A BIT AHEAD OF MYSELF...INDICATIONS ARE SUCH THAT THIS NEXT FRONT MAY BE STRONGER AND WE COULD SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN WITH THIS FIRST ONE. JUST THINKING OF FALL AFTER SUCH A HOT SUMMER. /CME

The forecaster is referring to a front that may come down early next week.

[Taffy]

can someone teach me how to read the above maps?

[rsdoug1981]

For those of you geeks like me that are still hanging on every run of the GFS, last night's 00z run was a doosy! How about a mid October freeze across most of the country including my neck of the woods...central MS!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[Extremeweatherguy]

For those of you geeks like me that are still hanging on every run of the GFS, last night's 00z run was a doosy! How about a mid October freeze across most of the country including my neck of the woods...central MS!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

yeah, that would be crazy if it verified. Probably would mean lows in the 30s/40s in Houston. Though not impossible for 30s in October, it is rare. Last year, however, we did get as cold as 36F in north Houston on October 25th.

[rsdoug1981]

Is the GFS trying to whip up its first fantasy blizzard this early? You Texans ought to like this!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

At any rate, the 12z has come in fairly cold in the long range (8 days +). If the whole winter is like this with a front every 2-3 days...well...you know.

[WhiteShirt]

Is the GFS trying to whip up its first fantasy blizzard this early? You Texans ought to like this!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _384.shtml

At any rate, the 12z has come in fairly cold in the long range (8 days +). If the whole winter is like this with a front every 2-3 days...well...you know.

Can you explain the map as far as Texas goes? How can I tell what the temps are? Thanks.