Models show more active Atlantic

[ConvergenceZone]

ConvergenceZone,that is why I posted a sentence above the advisory to let know all it is about Georges.

Yea I know, my Bad. My eyes just went right to the bold text...It's okay though. I do feel this will be our next depression. It doesn't look too bad. We'll have to follow that convection closely the next couple of days.

[MiamiensisWx]

By the way, is the solar wind gradient, movement, and speed conducive for tropical activity in the MDR region? Jim Hughes has mentioned this and related synoptics in relation to ENSO, tropical activity, and other factors, and how solar wind and ozone layers affect them. This could help solve some points and be crucial in the timing and rate of development of this and other upcoming eastern Atlantic systems.

[Windtalker1]

By the way, is the solar wind gradient, movement, and speed conducive for tropical activity in the MDR region? Jim Hughes has mentioned this and related synoptics in relation to ENSO, tropical activity, and other factors, and how solar wind and ozone layers affect them. This could help solve some points and be crucial in the timing and rate of development of this and other upcoming eastern Atlantic systems.

Who would know something like this?

[MiamiensisWx]

Who would know something like this?

Jim Hughes has discussed the relationship between solar wind speeds and ozone layers affected by solar wind gradient and speeds, which may influence ENSO, per basin tropical activity, QBO, and other important weather synoptical factors. Solar wind speed and gradient can be critical and play a huge part in weather, synoptics, factors, and activity.

[SouthFloridawx]

By the way, is the solar wind gradient, movement, and speed conducive for tropical activity in the MDR region? Jim Hughes has mentioned this and related synoptics in relation to ENSO, tropical activity, and other factors, and how solar wind and ozone layers affect them. This could help solve some points and be crucial in the timing and rate of development of this and other upcoming eastern Atlantic systems.

http://tinyurl.com/l6k8s

Convection continues to fire with this wave. Either at the 805 or 205 we should see something on the TWD. Looks like the favorable synoptics are not a dream at this point.

Also to note the storms to the Northeast of the system over africa should be a blocking feature to keep the dry air/ sal out of this developing wave.

Looking impressive this afternoon with no "poofing" going on.

Good low level convegence and fairly decent upper level divergence over the system right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dvg.html

[ConvergenceZone]

By the way, is the solar wind gradient, movement, and speed conducive for tropical activity in the MDR region? Jim Hughes has mentioned this and related synoptics in relation to ENSO, tropical activity, and other factors, and how solar wind and ozone layers affect them. This could help solve some points and be crucial in the timing and rate of development of this and other upcoming eastern Atlantic systems.

http://tinyurl.com/l6k8s

Convection continues to fire with this wave. Either at the 805 or 205 we should see something on the TWD. Looks like the favorable synoptics are not a dream at this point.

Also to note the storms to the Northeast of the system over africa should be a blocking feature to keep the dry air/ sal out of this developing wave.

Looking impressive this afternoon with no "poofing" going on.

Good low level convegence and fairly decent upper level divergence over the system right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dvg.html

Yea, I think this will develop, not only because of the factors you mentioned, but I also like the consistency with the one model, even if the other models aren't showing it.

[gatorcane]

By the way, is the solar wind gradient, movement, and speed conducive for tropical activity in the MDR region? Jim Hughes has mentioned this and related synoptics in relation to ENSO, tropical activity, and other factors, and how solar wind and ozone layers affect them. This could help solve some points and be crucial in the timing and rate of development of this and other upcoming eastern Atlantic systems.

http://tinyurl.com/l6k8s

Convection continues to fire with this wave. Either at the 805 or 205 we should see something on the TWD. Looks like the favorable synoptics are not a dream at this point.

Also to note the storms to the Northeast of the system over africa should be a blocking feature to keep the dry air/ sal out of this developing wave.

Looking impressive this afternoon with no "poofing" going on.

Good low level convegence and fairly decent upper level divergence over the system right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dvg.html

yep I say this one has a very good shot at developing....I thought we would see somthing around Aug 20th.....that was my prediction

[MiamiensisWx]

http://tinyurl.com/l6k8s

Convection continues to fire with this wave. Either at the 805 or 205 we should see something on the TWD. Looks like the favorable synoptics are not a dream at this point.

Also to note the storms to the Northeast of the system over africa should be a blocking feature to keep the dry air/ sal out of this developing wave.

Looking impressive this afternoon with no "poofing" going on.

Good low level convegence and fairly decent upper level divergence over the system right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7dvg.html

I agree. Those are the points, synoptics, and factors I have mentioned that may favor slow development. Consequently, weak outflow and banding has established, and convection continues to slowly consolidate and maintain. Synoptics favor this to be a fair candidate for our next INVEST eventually.

[bob rulz]

http://tinyurl.com/l6k8s

Convection continues to fire with this wave. Either at the 805 or 205 we should see something on the TWD. Looks like the favorable synoptics are not a dream at this point.

Also to note the storms to the Northeast of the system over africa should be a blocking feature to keep the dry air/ sal out of this developing wave.

Looking impressive this afternoon with no "poofing" going on.

Good low level convegence and fairly decent upper level divergence over the system right now.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/europe/winds/wm7dvg.html

I agree. Those are the points, synoptics, and factors I have mentioned that may favor slow development. Consequently, weak outflow and banding has established, and convection continues to slowly consolidate and maintain. Synoptics favor this to be a fair candidate for our next INVEST eventually.

I'd say more like "soon."

[stormernie]

This is loking more and more impressive by the hour. Ithas some banding features developing and it's the best looking system thus far. Looks better than any of the 3 storms right now.

[gatorcane]

we should have a new post on this wave in particular very soon - I see an invest by tomorrow on this.

[gopherfan21]

Let's see if the 530 TWO says anything of significance.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Derek, Wxmann do you guys have anything to say about this future "invest".

[SouthFloridawx]

Let's see if the 530 TWO says anything of significance.

It probably won't mention it as it hasn't been on the TWD yet. Mostly likely they will add a new wave at 805pm.

[whereverwx]

I’m no expert on this, but isn’t this an indication of an SAL surge?

[ConvergenceZone]

I think if the convection remains consistent or continues to grow, then it will be mentioned on the TWO. They may be a bit skittish with it and want to see some consistently based on the way the waves have been this year. I do believe it will develop though...

[HurricaneHunter914]

Yeah, but doesn't SAL attack from behind a wave?

[MiamiensisWx]

A new SAL surge may be emerging, as evidenced on imagery and analysis, but the synoptics that favor establishment and slow development may allow the wave to maintain itself, with brief losses if some convection but generally maintaining a distinct axis and at least some convective consolidation.

[Meso]

Hrm.... The 12z MM5 run is also picking up on this system now !!!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[curtadams]

Hrm.... The 12z MM5 run is also picking up on this system now !!!
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

Hmm. More to the point, the same unusual pattern as the GFS - sputsput to 40W, then, boom, it's a hurricane. So that's somewhat different from earlier monsoonal trough developments in that while often multiple models had something happen, they were always have different somethings happen.

I like the placement of the Azores high with that. Here, fishiefishiefishie!