Models show more active Atlantic

[MWatkins]

The reasons they haven't mentioned it in the TWO or TWD are:

1. The wave hasn't been analyized by TAFB yet. At the time the 12Z TWD was produced the wave hasdn't fully moved off of the Africian coast. It doesn't look like it's completely off yet...but they may pick it up in a couple of hours...but it could be another 12 hours before it gets completely out.

2. It is always prudent to wait a bit after these systems come off of land to see what the convection does. If it resules pulsing and builds some deeper thunderstorms...and actually shows some signs of developing the NHC will pick it up. Right now the development in the GFS is coming outside of the scope of the TWO (ie after 48 hours from now). It's still a bit early to mention development is possible etc.

MW

[willjnewton]

what does the gfs global forecast model still predict at 344 hours???does it still show that intense storm off the east coast or offshore???

[brunota2003]

what does the gfs global forecast model still predict at 344 hours???does it still show that intense storm off the east coast or offshore???

its still trickling in...havent made it that far out yet...

[Meso]

It's not fully out yet... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml
there is the URL for the page where you can see what hour shows what as it's released for this run..

[fci]

In reference to my comment about Jeff's "discussion" - when I first glanced it, I wondered for a time as to where this "product" came from - was it from a NWS forecaster at SJU, or, was it from a forecaster at NMC?

The way it read (and was bolded) gave me the impression that it was from a NOAA forecaster - an official product in the public domain.


Some may ask "What is the problem with that?", well, some here may know this, some might not, but, this site is peppered with financial speculators, who use the expertise of those, like Jeff (who I respect), to get an "edge" on the oil and gas market, which is highly sensitive at this time to any threat - be it natural or man-made.

That's the problem - S2K needs to place a disclaimer above "products" such as Jeff's, if nothing else, advising the reader that the "product" is totally unofficial.

On that note, some might ask why the NHC hasn't "picked up this system" - again, this is the problem with unofficial "forecast products".

Jeff, and the other professional meteorologists here, need to use caution when placing their own "forecasts" on this site - I learned while at NOAA, when it comes to a professional opinion, their words can be used against them in a court of law.

Frank

I know I can be accused of "beating a dead horse" here.

However, I can't imagine that there would be financial implications from quoting a "public" internet source like Jeff Masters.
These financial speculators can easily see this same information by going to Weather Underground and reading Jeff's thoughts there.
Maybe your issue is with Luis "bolding" the comments but I think that he "bolds" things when he quotes the relevant parts of them (like Forecast Discussions that reference an issue that he, and others; want to highlight). Maybe he should not have "bolded" the entire paragraph but you can take that up with him.

As for Pro Mets needing to use caution, it seems to me as another impingement on free speech and censorship or maybe more "Political Correctness".
No further comment on this due to the rightful banning of Political discussions on this site.

So are the opinions of Pro Mets supposed to be "secrets" until they can be "revealed" to the General Public?
Sounds like what the Senate had been debating to line the pockets of the Private Meteorologists (oops there I go again getting "political" again!)

Just giving you my take on this Frank...

Enough said.

[vacanechaser]

great points fci!!!! looks like someone needs to chill out a bit


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[bvigal]

Have to agree with this GFS in the short run. The lowest pressure coming off the coast of Africa right now is farther north. Dakar at noon 1007mb light S/SW winds. This pressure lower than Lungi or Conakry.

[ThunderMate]

I am lost at what you are trying to say bvigal....

[SWFLA_CANE]

Great points FCI...And as far as pro mets needing to use caution because there words could be used in a court of law...they don't as long as they are acting in good faith and utilizing there training and experience they can provide there opinion without recourse.

[Trugunzn]

looks like out to sea?

[ThunderMate]

Look at that 1025 mb H ...there is no way this is going out to see....am i correct?

[Trugunzn]

yea probally right. Its probally going to go west on next frames

[Meso]

Yeah... if that high pressure holds it will be quite a late curvature I think..

[SouthFloridawx]

The reasons they haven't mentioned it in the TWO or TWD are:

1. The wave hasn't been analyized by TAFB yet. At the time the 12Z TWD was produced the wave hasdn't fully moved off of the Africian coast. It doesn't look like it's completely off yet...but they may pick it up in a couple of hours...but it could be another 12 hours before it gets completely out.

2. It is always prudent to wait a bit after these systems come off of land to see what the convection does. If it resules pulsing and builds some deeper thunderstorms...and actually shows some signs of developing the NHC will pick it up. Right now the development in the GFS is coming outside of the scope of the TWO (ie after 48 hours from now). It's still a bit early to mention development is possible etc.

MW

Thanks Mike this seems totally right to me. People need to learn to be a bit more patient with the NHC or TPC because they will mention it when they mention it. They are not ignoring this and neither have they said this will not develop or it looks like it won't.

Frank, you need to calm down... Unless you want to get a crap storm brewing. I really enjoy reading the posts of pro-mets on this board. Unless it comes from the NOAA websites... you thould not be using this as an official public advisory. UNLESS IT IS POSTED AS AN OFFICIAL PUBLIC ADIVSORY.

FCI i agree with you 100%.

[wxmann_91]

977mbs is very impressive, esp becuase the GM tend not to show the true power of these storms becaus eof the resolution, so 977mbs could wel ltranslate down to about 960-950mbs in real life IF that was to be correct.

977 translates to a Cat 4-5 on a Global. It is VERY rare to see on a Global in the summer, especially post-180 hr. Now, not saying this will develop or verify, but the fact that the GFS has been picking up on this for consecutive runs definitely should signal something that it's picking up in the long range.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

doesn't look good for florida. plus, what is that little low off the coast of Tampa?!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The Central Atlantic seems to have some more moisture, and
some tropical waves. I'd say the Atlantic could become more
active in the next 3-5 days.

[Meso]

at 348 it is A LOT weaker than previous runs.. but it's also showing another system behind it..

[Trugunzn]

so far...............

[Frank2]

No chill out here - I got upset about a week or two ago, when I noticed a user name as something akin to "marketwatcher" - we all know what that means, and, as the saying goes, why buy the cow (or, in this case, the expensive use of a meteorologist consultant) if you can get the milk for free?

The same is true here - we "weather geeks" are being used, at least to some extent, believe me...

Frank