Models show more active Atlantic

#261 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:27 am

Tropical wave off of Africa
A very strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa today, and is centered near 7N 16W. The QuikSCAT pass from 3:17pm EDT reaveals winds of up to 60 mph to the west of the center. The wave has a lot of rotation, but not a closed circulation. The past two days worth of GFS model runs have been developing this system into a hurricane that threatens the Lesser Antilles in about a week. None of the other models develop the system. SSTs are a bit cool at 27C (81F), and wind shear is a fairly high 20 knots, so let's see how this cool water and moderate shear affects the system overnight before talking about whether it represents a future threat.

Jeff Masters

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

This was Jeff Masters comments from overnight about this wave.

#262 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:43 am

thanks Luis, I think you are right and we are just now starting to see the ramp up....

vacanechaser · #263 Postby **vacanechaser** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:44 am

interesting that the 6z today looks just like yesterdays.... wow....

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

ThunderMate · #264 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:55 am

Yes, thats what i was thinking.

#265 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:55 am

vacanechaser wrote:interesting that the 6z today looks just like yesterdays.... wow....
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Yep that is crazy

#266 Postby **gatorcane** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:57 am

SouthFloridawx lets hope that does not happen - that would be the doomsday scenario we all hope never happens. :eek:

Hyperstorm · #267 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 8:59 am

cycloneye wrote:Tropical wave off of Africa
A very strong tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa today, and is centered near 7N 16W. The QuikSCAT pass from 3:17pm EDT reaveals winds of up to 60 mph to the west of the center. The wave has a lot of rotation, but not a closed circulation. The past two days worth of GFS model runs have been developing this system into a hurricane that threatens the Lesser Antilles in about a week. None of the other models develop the system. SSTs are a bit cool at 27C (81F), and wind shear is a fairly high 20 knots, so let's see how this cool water and moderate shear affects the system overnight before talking about whether it represents a future threat.

Jeff Masters

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200608

This was Jeff Masters comments from overnight about this wave.

I disagree with some of his comments.

SSTs are definitely not cool off the coast of Africa on this 18th of August, much less near and south of 10N, where this wave is located. Wind shear is also not high over that particular area. That's why the wave has held up very well overnight. In fact, intense convection re-developed over the mid-level cyclonic swirl offshore (definitely not something associated with cool SSTs).

Next step for this system is to develop a closed low-level center. That could happen if convection continues to re-develop. Each new burst will lower pressure and create major release of latent heat into the atmosphere.

Today this wave will show us its tenacity or its fate...

ThunderMate · #268 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:03 am

Could we have an invest by tonight? All depends if it continues to gather convection and hold together.

Trugunzn · #269 Postby **Trugunzn** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:04 am

Makes if 977 mb

Weatherfreak14 · #270 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:41 am

Oh boy, Im leaving for Outer Banks 1 week from now.

KWT · #271 Postby **KWT** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:50 am

977mbs is very impressive, esp becuase the GM tend not to show the true power of these storms becaus eof the resolution, so 977mbs could wel ltranslate down to about 960-950mbs in real life IF that was to be correct.

#272 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:52 am

If this was a wave yesterday, how come NHC still doesn't mention it this morning? Not as a wave, yet. The mentioned it in the 8am ITZ discussion, which was posted earlier here, but I'll quote it again:
"THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE SOME BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IN THIS REGION. THIS ALONG WITH ANALYSIS OF THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAMS ON THE TAFB WEBSITE SUGGEST A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE MAY BE MOVING OFF OF AFRICA."

ThunderMate · #273 Postby **ThunderMate** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:56 am

Has the 11 or 11:30 am discussion come out yet?

bob rulz · #274 Postby **bob rulz** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 9:58 am

Is it just me or do the latest model runs just make this thing bigger and more threatening?

#275 Postby **brunota2003** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:04 am

*kicks the GFS* you better be wrong...no hurricane of that size/intensity...big nono...Hey...is it possible to ground a model until it stops showing that on its runs? :lol:

mike815 · #276 Postby **mike815** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:09 am

very consistant on developing a large system GFS kinda has my attention now.

Frank2 · #277 Postby **Frank2** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:11 am

I'm going to be critical of S2K at this point, and say that comments like Jeff's should not be allowed to be posted here, since they are only his comments as a private meteorologist - but appear to be from an official NOAA product.

This can easily be misinterpreted by the lurking financial speculators on this site, and, though some might not believe this, can lead to an increase in the price of gas and oil.

S2K, please monitor these unofficial weather products (or at least put a disclaimer above statement's like Jeff's), since this site is viewed by many hundreds, if not several thousand, viewers each day - including those who lurk here for financial gain only.

Frank

#278 Postby **fci** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:14 am

gatorcane wrote:SouthFloridawx lets hope that does not happen - that would be the doomsday scenario we all hope never happens.

I'm missing something probably from a prior post.
What is the "doomsday scenario" you are referring to?

What I see is this model shows a strong storm passing off the Outer Banks and staying offshore the NE coast.
Like a whole lot of storms before this.

Did I miss something in my looking at the model?

#279 Postby **fci** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:16 am

Frank2 wrote:I'm going to be critical of S2K at this point, and say that comments like Jeff's should not be allowed to be posted here, since they are only his comments as a private meteorologist - but appear to be from an official NOAA product.

This can easily be misinterpreted by the lurking financial speculators on this site, and, though some might not believe this, can lead to an increase in the price of gas and oil.

S2K, please monitor these unofficial weather products (or at least put a disclaimer above statement's like Jeff's), since this site is viewed by many hundreds, if not several thousand, viewers each day - including those who lurk here for financial gain only.

Frank

Frank:
The quote is clearing attributed to Jeff Masters isn't it?
If it was not identified specifically as being by Jeff Masters it would be plagerizing and "out of bounds" but what is wrong with quoting a "so called expert" from a respected web site? :?:

#280 Postby **bvigal** » Fri Aug 18, 2006 10:19 am

ThunderMate wrote:Has the 11 or 11:30 am discussion come out yet?

Looks like they are going to make us wait right until 11:30!

Models show more active Atlantic

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