Models show more active Atlantic

[vacanechaser]

8N is plenty north to have TC formation. I am not sure where this myth started that something needs to be north of 10N to develop, when there are examples of TC's developing just a few miles from the equator

great point... just someone wanting to be a forecaster i guess...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I was talking about the Atlatnic...Which normally doe's not have tropical cyclone formation south of 10 north. But its possible. Vancaster at least I try to make my own forecast thinking and try to make it through colledge even with problems. I try very hard. It will likely take 20 or more years but I will one day.

[Hyperstorm]

I personally think this is the wave that will begin at the very least a month-long madness in the tropical Atlantic waters. There are several reasons that lead me to believe something might just pop out of this area of disturbed weather, which is just coming off the coast...and it is NOT the GFS model run.

1) Upper-level winds seemingly conducive. The upper-level winds have been in place in this area for the most part during the month of August. This is a very typical low-shear zone during the heart of the season.

2) As is very typical, the SAL is not nearly as strong as it usually is during the peak months of June and July. This alone could be a significant favorable factor for this system.

3) Its persistence over land and compact form. This type of system would be called a MCS over the United States. If this would be heading toward the Gulf of Mexico or moving off the Carolina coastline, I would be quite concerned about future development.

4) Southern location. I think it is the most important factor for this particular system. Finally, we are seeing a fairly impressive MCS coming off the coast at a perfect latitude for tropical development. I can't recall last year seeing a persistent system come off at a low latitude during the peak season. This will bring the system over very warm SSTs, which are just ripe for rising motion to occur with the lack of a strong SAL. This southern latitude will also bring it just north of the ITCZ, which will act as trigger for its engine to start, as it pulls all the energy it has to offer.

5) Well-defined monsoon trough of low pressure extending from the central Atlantic all the way to the African coastline. With persistence, this would make it easier for a closed low level circulation center to develop. You can clearly see the westerly flow at low-levels ahead of this disturbance.

I personally think that the fact that its nature is similar to a MCS and its location is near 10N, where there are very warm waters at this stage of the season, is a major winning combination for this system. The fact that convection is re-developing over water/land as it moves off could surely give it a kick. Of course, in the headstrong east Atlantic waters anything can happen, but my experience tells me this one has a higher than average chance of persisting.

I'll be watching...

[cycloneye]

As always my friend a good analisis from you about the factors that will lead to a possible cyclone comming out from this wave.I expect invest 96L to be up at some point tommorow.

[bvigal]

As always my friend a good analisis from you about the factors that will lead to a possible cyclone comming out from this wave.I expect invest 96L to be up at some point tommorow.

Yes, agree with Hyperstorms points about changing conditions leading to more active development, especially if dust is waning.

Luis, you really think we'll have an invest tomorrow??? Ugh! I took off two days to go sailing, wish I'd taken a week!!

[Stephanie]

54 - 60 hours loses it - it just looks like showers, no system.

[cycloneye]

As always my friend a good analisis from you about the factors that will lead to a possible cyclone comming out from this wave.I expect invest 96L to be up at some point tommorow.

Yes, agree with Hyperstorms points about changing conditions leading to more active development, especially if dust is waning.

Luis, you really think we'll have an invest tomorrow??? Ugh! I took off two days to go sailing, wish I'd taken a week!!

bvigal,it would be by thursday to friday that if this system gets close to us so go sailing this weekend.

[vacanechaser]

nice post hyper...

matt.. not anything personal... didnt pay attention to who posted it... just chimed in... you do well... but for me, i leave the forecasting to the pros... and by that i mean the NHC... not that always agree with them in some decisions.. but they are the best.. i do my own in private.. not on the board... too many things can be taken wrong... besides, Max hates it when other folks make their own forecasts against what they say at the NHC... he says it sends mixed signals and for folks who may not know better, can make the wrong decisions based on something other than offical... and since we have a good relationship with max and the forecasters there, i and mark stay away from the forecasting publicly..

hope you do work hard and get to that point... some of these guys will be retiring in a few years, we will need some good people to take their places..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[bvigal]

Luis, you really think we'll have an invest tomorrow??? Ugh! I took off two days to go sailing, wish I'd taken a week!!

bvigal,it would be by thursday to friday that if this system gets close to us so go sailing this weekend.

Wish I could go sail whenever I want, instead of waiting for someone to invite me aboard!! LOL, I meant that I would have loved a longer break, before the season gets going and I spend all my spare time 'watching' the tropics. The only part of this model that I do take seriously this early, is that there most likely will be something forming, going somewhere, that we'll be wanting to keep an eye on.

[SouthFloridawx]

This wave is looking pretty good tonight.



Upper Level Divergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7dvg.html

Lower Level Convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 7conv.html

There is dust to the North but, too far to affect it.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... ucolZ.html

Looks like some storms are firing on the northern side which would keep any dry air out.

I'd say that if this continues for another 24 hours we may have a contender for TD 04.

[skysummit]

[cycloneye]

SouthFloridawx,still the complete system has not emerged Africa.If there is a turning it's still inland or just on the Sierra Leone coast.

[SouthFloridawx]

SouthFloridawx,still the complete system has not emerged Africa.If there is a turning it's still inland or just on the Sierra Leone coast.

If you remember 94L the NHC began mentioning it before it emerged from the coast. I had not noted if there was turning. But, I think we're looking at our next player.

[cycloneye]

Here is the infared image of 00z which shows the wave still half in the water and half inland.

[Weatherfreak14]

yea the moisture is there for it to get its act together.

[Jim Cantore]

[quote="Trugunzn"]makes it a big system



Thats a big storm

However I dont buy anything that far out


12z GFS at 384 Hours

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GFLL.html

Observations from Sierra Leone.

Shows some low pressures and SE winds which means a circulation may haved passed that location to the north of there.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GFLL.html

Observations from Sierra Leone.

Shows some low pressures and SE winds which means a circulation may haved passed that location to the north of there.

Total flip flop there with the winds...

[Josephine96]

Hope it forms.. I'm tired of the quiet

[cycloneye]

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/GOOY.html

Observations from Senegal.

Interesting the low pressures and the wind directions at Dakar.