Models show more active Atlantic

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vacanechaser
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#161 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:09 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Also it doe's not impressive me now. Theres been much stronger waves there year...This is at 8 north.


maybe so, but it is now the time to watch these in this area.. until now, conditions have been unfavorable... things are changing do to time of year... plus, the gfs has been consistant with it.... that says something in my opinion... certainly sense i hate the gfs......


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#162 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:10 pm

Yeah there looks to be a sharp wave but with any center at close to 6.5-7 north. I would give this 24 to 36 hours...In thats if it can keep the convection.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds32.png
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#163 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:11 pm

18z GFS at 108 Hours
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#164 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:20 pm

18z GFS at 120 Hours
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#165 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:21 pm

Getting a little stronger.
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#166 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:24 pm

At 108 hours its 1008 millibars from 1009 at 12z. Also it shows another system behind it.
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#167 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:25 pm

18z GFS at 144 Hours

Matt,look at 144 hours.
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#168 Postby miamicanes177 » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:27 pm

this is getting very exciting. GFS is being fairly consistent with developing this wave over the last several runs.
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#169 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:27 pm

Nice its getting a little more organized here.
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#170 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:28 pm

1006 millibars but with alot larger area of inflow. If that where to happen it more likley it would be 995 to 998 millibars. The system behind it looking good to. Also another one behind that. But people that likely hood of this happing at this ridge will need more models to join in.
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#171 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:30 pm

18z GFS at 162 Hours

1005 mbs.
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#172 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:33 pm

nice signature in the model too...


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#173 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:41 pm

18z GFS at 180 Hours

1004 mbs.
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#174 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:48 pm

Fantasy can be fun. :cheesy:
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#175 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:53 pm

Hinting at a major with one or maybe even two trailing systems. Luis, what effect if any does the first system appearing to be a major cane have on the model runs for the trailing systems?
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#176 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:53 pm

back to missing the coast.... see what the 00z shows... :roll: :D



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#177 Postby Scorpion » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:54 pm

It shows a fish this time.
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#178 Postby vacanechaser » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:55 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_300l.gif

here it misses the coast... out to sea


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#179 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:56 pm

8N is plenty north to have TC formation. I am not sure where this myth started that something needs to be north of 10N to develop, when there are examples of TC's developing just a few miles from the equator
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#180 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:57 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Well the whole 384 hours came out so what I did is to post the 384 loop.

It's weaker than previous runs and recurves avoiding the Caribbean and without getting close to the U.S East Coast.This shows that every run is different and has to be taken with a grain of salt.But anyway it shows a more active pattern in the Atlantic.Let's now see what the 00z run will bring tonight.
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