Models show more active Atlantic

[Derek Ortt]

tick, tick, tick

we're moving very close to September, when the 5th storm of 2001 developed and the first CV system. We ended up with 15 that year

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A persistent trough over the east coast leads me to
believe that 1 or more storms could potentially recurve
into the East Coast. I am not referring to the hurricane
the GFS was showing, but I am referring to the
over-all long-range pattern which points to
storms potentially targeting the east
coast due to a persistent troughing
there. This year's set-up with the
persistent trough seems very similar to
the set-up in 2003 and with Hurricane Isabel. I'm not saying that
there will be another Isabel type storm.
However, the pattern with the persistent
trough favors an Isabel-type track not in
exact landfall location but in a general
threat to the east-coast from Miami
to Canada.
So anyone along the east coast should
be very prepared this season (so
should everyone else, but I think
that the threat is especially high to the
east coast this year due to that persistent
trough).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I have saved GFS long range model runs from the past two years, showing many such phantom storms hitting many areas; the vast majority of which never pan out. I'm not saying this one will do the same, but everyone should take it with a grain of salt for at least the next 6 or 7 days after that,, we'll see.

[Hurricaneman]

I am in monitoring mode, but its unknown right now if it even develops or the exact track

[cycloneye]

I have saved GFS long range model runs from the past two years, showing many suchphantom storms hitting many areas; the vast majority of which never pan out. I'm not saying this one will do the same, but everyone should take it with a grain of salt for at least the next 6 or 7 days.

Bingo.We have to look at each run as they pop out to see the changes that for sure will occur during the next 2 weeks.To see how the GFS is doing in terms of validation of scenarios what we have to do is to go back to this thread as every run will be posted and see if GFS is correct or they busted.The first post of the thread that I made includes the 6z loop run for August 17.That run then will be compared around 10 days from now to see if GFS was right or wrong.

[Derek Ortt]

there is very little chance mathematically that the GFS will be correct 10 days out, since numerical methods are being used to solve the equations, which have rounding errors.

The Navier-Stokes equations that govern atmospheric motions cannot be solved implicitly, only numerically

[wxwatcher91]

One that appeared last year around this time:

http://i22.photobucket.com/albums/b316/ ... n384hr.jpg

[miamicanes177]

there is not really anything to discuss with that wave and chances are, there will not be.

A very poor tropical model indicating development while the others do not does not lead me to sound any alarm bells

Well we are quickly approaching the peak of the hurricane season. The experts at the NHC expect up to 9 hurricanes this year. I would certainly not be willing to say on August 17th the wave will not develop. As Dr. Jeff Masters said, "Around August 21, I expect it will appear that a switch has been thrown, and the Atlantic will be very active indeed. Expect our first hurricane in the Atlantic by August 26."

[Wthrman13]

there is not really anything to discuss with that wave and chances are, there will not be.

A very poor tropical model indicating development while the others do not does not lead me to sound any alarm bells

It depends on how you are defining "poor" in this case. The GFS has had a good track record the last few years on predicting tracks of existing TC's.

I agree that in terms of TC genesis, it is usually overzealous, but not nearly as bad as in the late 90's, when it predicted virtually every single wave to become a TC.

[Derek Ortt]

yes, the GFS is improved, but is still lacking in terms of genesis. With no other model support, that strong of a TC does seem quite suspect

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 24 hours

The first salvo from the 18z run for this system.

[tgenius]

18z GFS at 24 hours

The first salvo from the 18z run for this system.

looks pretty healthy for 24 hr out even...

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 48 hours

[willjnewton]

what about 18z gfs at 60 hours

[cycloneye]

18z GFS at 72 Hours

[Thunder44]

what about 18z gfs at 60 hours

You can look for yourself at the NCEP site:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

[miamicanes177]

what about 18z gfs at 60 hours

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_060s.gif

[canegrl04]

Is that GFS model grid saying a hurricane will hit the NE coast?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

At the first 24 hours the convection and center is stacked. Then 48-72 the center is way to the north of the deep convection/rain. I think this is a sign it will fizz!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also it doe's not impressive me now. Theres been much stronger waves there year...This is at 8 north.