Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

chicagopizza · #161 Postby **chicagopizza** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:07 pm

Just reporting what a local met just said on tv - that this system is "dissipating" and should "wash itself out" very shortly.

jimpsummers · #162 Postby **jimpsummers** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:07 pm

NHC seems to be late in coming out with the latest tropical weather outlook... are they hearing closing arguments for and against upgrade?? lol

jimpsummers · #163 Postby **jimpsummers** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:09 pm

chicagopizza wrote:Just reporting what a local met just said on tv - that this system is "dissipating" and should "wash itself out" very shortly.

Thats what we all said yesterday too...

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #164 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:10 pm

Its a depression any ways so if they upgraded it would only be truthful. But if they did not then its going to likely get sheared. So unlikely to strengthen.

Thunder44 · #165 Postby **Thunder44** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:12 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on August 17, 2006

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
An area of low pressure...located approximately 110 miles
southeast of Charleston South Carolina...continues to produce
disorganized areas of showers and thunderstorms. There is still a
small chance that this system could become a tropical depression
tonight or early Friday before upper level winds become unfavorable
for significant development. Even if a depression does not
form...showers and thunderstorms with brief gusty winds could
affect coastal areas of South Carolina...Georgia...and
northeastern Florida during the next day or so as the system
drifts southwestward.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Friday.
$$
Forecaster brown/Avila

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #166 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:17 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Its a depression any ways so if they upgraded it would only be truthful. But if they did not then its going to likely get sheared. So unlikely to strengthen.

Quit being silly...

Stormavoider · #167 Postby **Stormavoider** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:17 pm

1012mb and falling.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=TYBG1

Sanibel · #168 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:33 pm

About to get rip-sawed by shear speeding down from the north.

StormsAhead · #169 Postby **StormsAhead** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:34 pm

Can someone explain why the system wasn't made a depression? Because I sure can't. Here is NHC's definition of a tropical cyclone:

"A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation" http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html

Don't see anything about sustained wind speed or that the system needs to have a chance to intensify :wink:

#170 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:35 pm

From all the buoy reports it looks to be closed off, we have west winds off the NE coast of Florida and North winds off the upper GA and SC coasts with some 30kt winds. Looks like a TD too me.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #171 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:36 pm

StormsAhead wrote:Can someone explain why the system wasn't made a depression? Because I sure can't. Here is NHC's definition of a tropical cyclone:

"A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation" http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html

Don't see anything about sustained wind speed or that the system needs to have a chance to intensify

I guest I'm very silly, but I agree with you about this being a depression.

Sanibel · #172 Postby **Sanibel** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:37 pm

It's also hooked that surface band to its NW into more of an arch meaning strengthening.

Grease Monkey · #173 Postby **Grease Monkey** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:37 pm

Just another one of the many duds 2006 season has to offer. Shows over. Anyways, what are your Christmas plans this year?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #174 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:40 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:Just another one of the many duds 2006 season has to offer. Shows over. Anyways, what are your Christmas plans this year?

I will be watching the south Hem by then...In watching for a south Atlatnic system. :wink:

Stormavoider · #175 Postby **Stormavoider** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 4:40 pm

If it helps keep the actuaries off us, I hope they don't classify any of them.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #176 Postby **senorpepr** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 5:24 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
Grease Monkey wrote:Just another one of the many duds 2006 season has to offer. Shows over. Anyways, what are your Christmas plans this year?

I will be watching the south Hem by then...In watching for a south Atlatnic system.

...you mean random patches of stratocumulus? :wink:

#177 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:29 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:From all the buoy reports it looks to be closed off, we have west winds off the NE coast of Florida and North winds off the upper GA and SC coasts with some 30kt winds. Looks like a TD too me.

I don't know what it is, but I just looked at a plot map that most models showed it tracking across N. or NW Florida.

#178 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:32 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:From all the buoy reports it looks to be closed off, we have west winds off the NE coast of Florida and North winds off the upper GA and SC coasts with some 30kt winds. Looks like a TD too me.

I don't know what it is, but I just looked at a plot map that most models showed it tracking across N. or NW Florida.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A
SMALL CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE
FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. EVEN IF A DEPRESSION DOES NOT
FORM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM
DRIFTS SOUTHWESTWARD.

GTStorm · #179 Postby **GTStorm** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:32 pm

What you all have been witnessing is the effect of the Savannah Moisture Inversion Zone. It repels all fronts / storms / depressions / hurricanes / typhoons / whatever, and destroys them. It is centered over my house. I can control it, by applying fertilizer, or planting sod. :cheesy:

#180 Postby **fci** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 6:33 pm

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:
StormsAhead wrote:Can someone explain why the system wasn't made a depression? Because I sure can't. Here is NHC's definition of a tropical cyclone:

"A tropical cyclone is the generic term for a non-frontal synoptic scale low-pressure system over tropical or sub-tropical waters with organized convection (i.e. thunderstorm activity) and definite cyclonic surface wind circulation" http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/A1.html

Don't see anything about sustained wind speed or that the system needs to have a chance to intensify

I guest I'm very silly, but I agree with you about this being a depression.

Really what's the difference if they call it a TD or not?
Short-lived, shear to tear it apart and of no consequence.
Summer thuderstorms are more interesting..

Invest 93L,E of Florida,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread #2

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