Regarding SW Carib

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

This is somewhat outdated (except for the morning AOTO). However, the possible of devleopment was somewhat mentioned in last nights discussion. One thing about it and I dont remember if I mentioned it in the discussion, I was thinking no development until the old TD moved into the monsoon trough. I may have been burned with this

[southerngale]

Interesting....looks like something is stirring down there.

[vbhoutex]

http://www.nwhhc.com/gpage1.html

This is somewhat outdated (except for the morning AOTO). However, the possible of devleopment was somewhat mentioned in last nights discussion. One thing about it and I dont remember if I mentioned it in the discussion, I was thinking no development until the old TD moved into the monsoon trough. I may have been burned with this

When I was checking TWD and TWO late last night there was no mention of this feature having any chance at development. Even the 5am said nothng. Then at 11am boom!!!! I didn't see it coming nor did anyone else I know of. What a sesaon this may turn out to be!!!!

[cycloneye]

AGREE !!!!!!!!!!! DAVID

[BreinLa]

Here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Toni - 574]

Get out the coffee, soda's, and beer guys and oh yea, don't forget the popcorn! We may have some long nights ahead of us in the very near term.
Toni

[Rainband]

Yes toni...This one could very well be our headache next week...The systems that form down in the western carrib..are Florida storms ...I think thats what I have heard :?

[vbhoutex]

Yes toni...This one could very well be our headache next week...The systems that form down in the western carrib..are Florida storms ...I think thats what I have heard :?

Quite often this is true, but not always. Models have picked FL for this one so far if it verifies.

[Rainband]

Guess we will see what happens..I was just going by climatology and stuff I'd seen on different storms in history.

[Rainband]

Yes toni...This one could very well be our headache next week...The systems that form down in the western carrib..are Florida storms ...I think thats what I have heard :?

Quite often this is true, but not always. Models have picked FL for this one so far if it verifies.

Our National weather service agrees too..the big question remains when and where the tropical wave/TUTT
feature...sliding northwest out of the Caribbean on Monday and meandering over
the southeast Gulf through middle week before getting ejected to the NE/east by
approaching 500 mb trough. As expected...models are agreeing with
the trend...but run-to-run consistency in timing is poor.
Certainly...we'll have to continue to monitor this system as it's
location and climatology this time of year are favorable.

[ColdFront77]

Interestion situation developing with this feature in the southwest Caribbean. Is there any chance that TD2 had any affect on this developing system?

The convection keeps moving off of Texas is an interesting aspect with this system, too.

Those that don't follow the tropics too much or haven't much with this rapid development are missing... that the next named storm is "Bill," not "Ana."

It will be fun watching the shortwave move toward the southeast to see which direction this potential development moves.

[Toni - 574]

Yes toni...This one could very well be our headache next week...The systems that form down in the western carrib..are Florida storms ...I think thats what I have heard :?

To any resident that lives along the Gulf Coast and especially W. Fla. needs to keep a watchful eye on this system.
I am still so suprised that this has developed so quickly, I am in total shock! Check out the link..

Toni

http://files.hurricanealley.net/images/AL9203TRP.gif

[Stormsfury]

The BAMM is interesting but it's obvious westerly bias shows here and this will likely not be steered by the low-level winds ...

[Lindaloo]

Johnathan.... while I do not hope you get a cane, I hope you do get this sytem so you can get some much needed rain. No winds or anything of course, JUST RAIN!! lol.