Models show more active Atlantic

[cycloneye]

Hmm. The new update on the GFS doesent look so good to me.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

That's an old run,the 00z one from last night.

[Weatherfreak14]

on my computer it says its the latest one. Hmm. Im sorry for wrong info.

[Trugunzn]

Hmm. The new update on the GFS doesent look so good to me.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_m.shtml

thats not the new update

old run

[angelwing]

Thats nearly 2 weeks away though.

Great, first time I'll be able to go to the shore and there could be another Labor Day cane at Seaside, like the last time I could get away for the day, sigh

[Scorpion]

This is ridiculous..... picking landfall points on an imaginery 384 hour hurricane? The only thing this shows us is that conditions will potentially become more favorable for a hurricane(perhaps a major) to form.

[Trugunzn]

[Weatherfreak14]

It could Happen Tommrrow.

IMO right now i dont really think this as being a NE typee storm this will probably take a similiar track to hugo in 1989.

[jimvb]

After some weeks of appearing as a dud, this season apparently is turning up a major storm two weeks from now. It shows up only on the GFS, since only the GFS goes that far. Some runs show it going fish into the Atlantic, one shows it hitting southern New England, another threatens the Carolinas, some show it stalling in certain places and getting going again. This reminds me of Isabel in 2003. I documented the progress of the models on this in

http://jimvb.home.mindspring.com/weather.htm

In particular, I have this record of GFS runs:

2003 September 7
12 - New England
18 - sea

2003 September 8
0 - Maine
6 - S. Florida
12 - Nova Scotia
18 - Delmarva, Baltimore 2003 Sept 21 2 am EDT

2003 September 9
0 - sea, turning around on 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
6 - Nova Scotia 2003 Sept 23 2 am EDT
12 - Myrtle Beach (another Floyd) 2003 Sept 23 8 pm EDT
18 - S. Florida, then heads up to Central Virginia 2003 September 23

As you can see, the runs hop all over the place, and most of them having Isabel striking around Sept 21-23. A little later, the GFS runs started consistently turning up Chesapeake bay, and then the Outer Banks, and that is where it struck, earlier than these model runs predicted on September 18.

Something like this could happen to this storm, but this season's GFS has had a tendency to kill way-in-the-future storms, even if it has shown up consistently run after run.

The storm does exist now, as a little cell near the African coast, as did Isabel, which became an area of disturbed clouds and then in only 24 hours a fairly strong tropical storm. So that indicates something could happen in two weeks.

Still, a lot could happen with this storm. I don't have any idea where it will go right now. Future runs may tell the story.

[Damar91]

This is ridiculous..... picking landfall points on an imaginery 384 hour hurricane? The only thing this shows us is that conditions will potentially become more favorable for a hurricane(perhaps a major) to form.

Why not. It's not like there is anything else to track or anything.

[willjnewton]

can someone show me a gfs forecast model in a wide picture that was Updated in about 344hours or more, or alot more because I want to see as of now for this 2006 storm season, does the latest gfs run still have the strong storm system hitting the east coast still???please explain thanks

[ConvergenceZone]

This is ridiculous..... picking landfall points on an imaginery 384 hour hurricane? The only thing this shows us is that conditions will potentially become more favorable for a hurricane(perhaps a major) to form.

It's only because we are so bored and there is nothing else in the tropics to look at ....It's all about tropical boredom.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
320 PM AST THU AUG 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...MID TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND WEAK POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETROGRADING TUTT LOW
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TODAY TO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ENHANCED DIURNAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET AND FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE
VI WHERE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

EXPECT SLIGHTLY LESS NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY...AS MODELS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW DRIER
AND MORE STABLE AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION. AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
NOW INDICATING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY
MOVING OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...NOT REACHING THE AREA TILL
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productview ... &version=0

The San Juan NWS discussion from this afternoon mentions it but not much talk yet.As time goes by I expect them to say more.

[willjnewton]

do you guys really mean that in about 384 hours or more the gfs forecast model run shows a strong system hitting the east coast???

[Derek Ortt]

there is not really anything to discuss with that wave and chances are, there will not be.

A very poor tropical model indicating development while the others do not does not lead me to sound any alarm bells

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I agree Derek it will likely poof like the rest.

[Damar91]

do you guys really mean that in about 384 hours or more the gfs forecast model run shows a strong system hitting the east coast???

That is what it is showing now, but keep in mind this will change many times before if and when it actually develops. We will have fun tracking it though!

[Cyclenall]

This is ridiculous..... picking landfall points on an imaginery 384 hour hurricane? The only thing this shows us is that conditions will potentially become more favorable for a hurricane(perhaps a major) to form.

Why not. It's not like there is anything else to track or anything.

Are you forgetting about Hurricane Hector in the Epac?

[Damar91]

This is ridiculous..... picking landfall points on an imaginery 384 hour hurricane? The only thing this shows us is that conditions will potentially become more favorable for a hurricane(perhaps a major) to form.

Why not. It's not like there is anything else to track or anything.

Are you forgetting about Hurricane Hector in the Epac?

Sorry, I forgot about over there. It's just not the same though!

[Cyclenall]

Sorry, I forgot about over there. It's just not the same though!

I understand.

[ConvergenceZone]

there is not really anything to discuss with that wave and chances are, there will not be.

A very poor tropical model indicating development while the others do not does not lead me to sound any alarm bells

Why would you think it won't develop when afterall we are getting into late August?? The other models may start showing development, but maybe a bit later.... There have been plenty of systems over Africa that the models didn't latch onto, and that ended up becoming hurricanes. I mean If this wave won't develop, then what will???

tick tick tick, time's running out.............