Models show more active Atlantic

#61 Postby **OuterBanker** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:29 am

Whoa, what a run. If that run came to pass I know someone who would be saying I told you so. It would fullfill his earlier Carolina coast and north strike predictions in one fell swoop (no one here will have to guess who that is). We all know how far off long term runs can be. If the gfs even comes close I think it would be time break in and run numbers on all the major lotteries.

Trugunzn · #62 Postby **Trugunzn** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:30 am

the new run so far is farthur west

#63 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:32 am

12Z 144 hours shows a couple of storms in the Atlantic.

x-y-no · #64 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:32 am

12Z out to 156 hours now, broad 1012mb low appoaching the windward islands.

Doesn't look anything like the earlier run at this point.

Weatherfreak14 · #65 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:33 am

no, looks much weaker and curving out to sea.

willjnewton · #66 Postby **willjnewton** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:34 am

so the latest gfs model does not show a hurricane anymore, oh man thats dissapointing

wxmann_91 · #67 Postby **wxmann_91** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:34 am

I'd thought it wouldn't be anything like the previous run. In fact, in retrospect, the 6Z run made absolutely no sense in driving this system westward at 30 kt and yet developing a LLC.

x-y-no · #68 Postby **x-y-no** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:35 am

Weatherfreak14 wrote:no, looks much weaker and curving out to sea.

Curving out to sea?

I see a big weak low headed toward the Caribbean.

156 hours

Trugunzn · #69 Postby **Trugunzn** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:35 am

People the run isnt even done and where do u see curve out to sea?

dwg71 · #70 Postby **dwg71** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:35 am

Its a sign of the times when we are tracking nonexistent storms

Weatherfreak14 · #71 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:36 am

its shows it curving out to see in the long term models.

MortisFL · #72 Postby **MortisFL** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:37 am

It's still a low and its nearly impossible to predict intensity 6 days out. If GFS lost the low completely..then I'd think something.

jabber · #73 Postby **jabber** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:38 am

I do not trust models 3 days out much less 10 days out....

willjnewton · #74 Postby **willjnewton** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:39 am

darn do you all mean that the gfs with the hurricane fell apart?? thats upsetting

Weatherfreak14 · #75 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:40 am

I know my heart just dropped.

Trugunzn · #76 Postby **Trugunzn** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:41 am

willjnewton wrote:darn do you all mean that the gfs with the hurricane fell apart?? thats upsetting

who said it doesnt show a hurricane?

Meso · #77 Postby **Meso** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:42 am

Nah... nothing can be said yet, the 12z run isn't completed yet... Still shows something. waiting game time..

willjnewton · #78 Postby **willjnewton** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:42 am

or does the gfs forecast model still show a hurricane around the 30th of august??I am just confused

Weatherfreak14 · #79 Postby **Weatherfreak14** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:43 am

Im very confused.

#80 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Thu Aug 17, 2006 11:43 am

Models show more active Atlantic

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