GOM System (Ex 95L)

[tailgater]

I think they are playing mind games with us, check out this loop with the fronts box checked. A 1012 high along a surface trough. Maybe I've had to many magaritas and it's pretty late. I'll see if still there in the morn.

[Nimbus]

Surface pressures have been low in the gulf along that old stationary front.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

The ULL that was over the eastern/central gulf yesterday squelched all the convection yesterday.

Some of the pro mets felt there was a chance of a flare up along the western side of the ULL (thus the invest). With the shear on the increase there was not much chance for quick development in that area.

This morning as the ULL rolls off to the southwest there may be an opportunity for development along the east side of the ULL. There is still a lot of shear in the area and that trough that is chasing 93L south looks like it might leave a divot.

[tailgater]

I know it's the NAM but,
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Stormcenter]

I know it's the NAM but,
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

That's interesting considering what the area looks like this morning.

[Portastorm]

Oh man, that would be so-weet ... nice little QPF bullseye over Austin!

While the NAM is usually more comical than not, it is indeed interesting given where it initializes a system and the current convection in that area of the Gulf.

[skysummit]

LSU Low Cloud Product
You can also see 93L in the upper right.

[tailgater]

Yes it's starting to get a little interesting with this system that still shows as at least a very broad circ.
http://oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-of-Mexico/marine.html
and as the ULL moves west I think it move quicker than this broad surface low.
93l starting to look like it might may it to TD status also.

[Stormcenter]

The GOM disturbance is looking a little better this morning.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[Stormcenter]

This is from this morning NWS N.O. discussion. It addresses the 2006 season so far and makes some good points.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
403 am CDT Thursday Aug 17 2006


Discussion...
upper high centered near Little Rock Arkansas will move little over the
next several days. The upper low over the central Gulf will
continue to be forced SW while between these two...a continuation
of middle level disturbances will move along the tightened gradient
contours oriented from east to west over the Gulf Coast. A very
strong tropical wave is moving almost in tandem with the upper
low. Models are now showing the northern portion of this wave to
stay just south of the Gulf Coast until Friday. This is the first
run to show this. Previous solutions showed the deep tropical
moisture moving over the area today. Will only back pop numbers
off by 10% for today and tonight. The upper low is causing some
very inhospitable conditions for the underlying tropical wave/area
of low pressure. Nevertheless...it will still have to be watched
and should be capable of producing a nice mesoscale convective system type blow up in the
NE Gulf today somewhere around buoy 42039. Afterwards...the waves
axis that attributes to the large complex of ts will move toward
our area finally bringing the deep moisture along with it(hopefully).


So far it has been an eery direct opposite year for tropical
development in the Atlantic Basin. By this day last year there
were 9 named storms. So far there have been 3 named storms and no
hurricanes yet. But since it only takes one to make a bad
year...we won't boast yet. We have yet to reach the peak of the
Atlantic hurricane season which arrives September 10th. This is
how the averages stack up.


Taken between 1944 and 2005:


Month #namedaverage
Jan-Apr 40.1
may 8 0.1
Jun 35 0.6
Jul 58 0.9
Aug 1732.8
Sep 2243.6
Oct 1141.8
Nov 330.5
Dec 70.1


So as one can see we are in the hottest part of the season...but
one good thing is the further we get along in the season...usually
by late September...chances of cold fronts picking up those systems
that do try to develop over the Atlantic increase.

[rockyman]

FWIW, NAM, NOGAPS, and Canadian all pick up on this system...though they all keep it weak...with only NAM showing any type of "landfall"

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

[Portastorm]

FWIW, NAM, NOGAPS, and Canadian all pick up on this system...though they all keep it weak...with only NAM showing any type of "landfall"

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/

I had never seen these maps before. Very cool!

Thanks rockyman!

[caneman]

Not sure if this came down on the NRL site but it is howing up on there now.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... YLE=tables

[SouthFloridawx]

95L is up on the Navy site.

[Stratosphere747]

Did it ever come down?

['CaneFreak]

no

[Johnny]

We are starting to see a nice flare up in the eastern gulf right now.

[SouthFloridawx]

Why is the thread title EX95L?

[Stratosphere747]

That's why I assumed it was taken down. A bit confusing.

[Thunder44]

They aren't running the models on this invest anymore. And they don't mention this area in the TWO either.

[tailgater]

not here
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
TWO a little late