GOM System (Ex 95L)

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes looking at the low level steering flow it appears that it would move SW, if any convection would pop up with this thing.

Looking at the CIMSS site, it appears there maybe a little more convergence in the lower levels for some convection to fire up today.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

805TWD - TPC
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE MOST OBVIOUS NEAR
25N87W. BUOY OBS ALSO NOW SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING AND
CONFLUENCE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH HAS LEAD TO THE TROUGH
PLACEMENT ON THE INTERMEDIATE 16/0900 UTC MAP. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 23N TO 29W BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. THESE
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MOVING NE TO SW BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH NEAR SRN
ARKANSAS AND THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF TAMPA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS HELPING THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION SEEN S OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W.
SHELL PLATFORM 42362 IS IN THIS VICINITY AND SHOWED THAT 30KT
ENE WINDS MIXED DOWN AT 0800 UTC. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST OFFSHORE FT MYERS...ASSOCIATED
WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW. 16/0000 UTC
GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL...SHOWING A DISTINCT REGION
OF 500MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE REGION WHERE THE
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OFF W FLORIDA. MUCH OF THE WRN GULF
BETWEEN 93W AND 98W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND FAIR
WEATHER. SYNOPTIC SURFACE PATTERN IN THE GULF IS IN A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE MOMENT.


If anything were to happen it better happen quick before any surface features are not around anymore.

[CronkPSU]

LOL the abbreviation SH/TS should never go back to back like that

[Frank2]

Re: tailgater's post

I wouldn't make too much of these local forecast discussion side comments (which appear after the synoptic wording), since, they are often more just the rambling thoughts of the forecaster, more than anything...

Frank

[Sanibel]

Thunder rumbling here all night last night.

Sometimes a sign of formation.

[sevenleft]

Thunder rumbling here all night last night.

Sometimes a sign of formation.

Could have also been the thunderstorms that rolled through. Just a hunch.

[Sanibel]

True, but the normal pattern is clear skies at night and build up to daily afternoon monsoon here just about every day.

[SouthFloridawx]

NAM fairly bullish on development with this Invest,

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 606/3.html

Nogaps still seeing some potential

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/55.html

[Portastorm]

(sigh) ...

I'd like something of a rain-producing sort (even a strong tropical wave) to start cooking in the Gulf. I just looked over the Euro and GFS and the Western Sizzler High doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon. Triple-digit highs are getting common here ... too common!

[Sanibel]

I'm seeing very loose surface organization with this about 300 miles WSW of Sanibel on visible loop.

[jasons2k]

(sigh) ...

I'd like something of a rain-producing sort (even a strong tropical wave) to start cooking in the Gulf. I just looked over the Euro and GFS and the Western Sizzler High doesn't appear to be going anywhere anytime soon. Triple-digit highs are getting common here ... too common!

Unfortunately, it looks like you are exactly right:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
252 PM CDT WED AUG 16 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS
THE GFS/UKMET SOLUTIONS IN NOT RECEDING THE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SO FAST. CONSEQUENTLY...TUTT FEATURE AND ANY SURFACE REFLECTION
OVER THE GLFMEX WILL BE BLOCKED/WEAKENED WITH SUBSIDENT REGIME
LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

[Sanibel]

What looks like a circulation there is probably just a weak eddy in the local pattern.

[Normandy]

I dont see anything but a giant ULL

[Extremeweatherguy]

JB says that he thinks this looks better tonight than last night. He said that pressures are falling around the circulation and all that needs to happen is for convection to fire around it. He thinks it will then track into S. Texas.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Unless that area of deep convection over land can move into the gulf...Then I don't think what ever that is at 25-27/88/92 will do anything but bring a few showers. The chances for development look super low.

[Stratosphere747]

JB says that he thinks this looks better tonight than last night. He said that pressures are falling around the circulation and all that needs to happen is for convection to fire around it. He thinks it will then track into S. Texas.

Which circulation? And how is this better than last night? Besides the convection over Louisiana, there is nothing in the GOM.

[teal61]

JB says that he thinks this looks better tonight than last night. He said that pressures are falling around the circulation and all that needs to happen is for convection to fire around it. He thinks it will then track into S. Texas.

Which circulation? And how is this better than last night? Besides the convection over Louisiana, there is nothing in the GOM.

There is a weak loosely defined circulation out in the mid Gulf centered around 26/88.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... ineM00.gif

Also shows up on the shortwave IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

Pressures are 2-3mb lower than they were at the same time last night.

The convection over Louisiana is not related.

[Stormcenter]

JB says that he thinks this looks better tonight than last night. He said that pressures are falling around the circulation and all that needs to happen is for convection to fire around it. He thinks it will then track into S. Texas.

Which circulation? And how is this better than last night? Besides the convection over Louisiana, there is nothing in the GOM.

There is a weak loosely defined circulation out in the mid Gulf centered around 26/88.

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/Gulf-o ... ineM00.gif

Also shows up on the shortwave IR.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

The convection over Louisiana is not related.

Thanks for posting that.

[Stratosphere747]

Thanks for the obs and images....

The only thing that looks remotely close to last night is convection over a landmass *Louisiana*

And somehow we are looking for organization? Still not sure what JB is tracking into S. Texas.....

[Extremeweatherguy]

Thanks for the obs and images....

The only thing that looks remotely close to last night is convection over a landmass *Louisiana*

And somehow we are looking for organization? Still not sure what JB is tracking into S. Texas.....

Last night that loose circulation had pressures 2-3mb higher, so that means it has deepened some. JB said that the convection over LA is not associated with this system.

[teal61]

Thanks for the obs and images....

The only thing that looks remotely close to last night is convection over a landmass *Louisiana*

And somehow we are looking for organization? Still not sure what JB is tracking into S. Texas.....

Last night that loose circulation had pressures 2-3mb higher, so that means it has deepened some. JB said that the convection over LA is not associated with this system.

Kinda funny.. Tim Heller of CH 13 did a "special " report at the begining of the 10pm news on that weak low in the Gulf.

Like he said though, as long as it's out there and the water temps are as warm as they are we have to keep an eye on it.