Tropical Depression Hector in EPAC

[SkeetoBite]

[Cyclenall]

It's expected to become a hurricane in 48 hours. It's forecast to be at 35 Knots in 12 hours, I'm going to say it will be at 40 Knots in 12 hours. I think it will strengthen fast for the next 36-48 hours and then if the track is more west then north, slow weakening. If the track is more north then steady weakening after 72 hours.

[CrazyC83]

Yay another EPAC storm . The EPAC holds an insane lead right now.

If we get an El Nino, I smell an insane 2007 Pacific hurricane season...it would be their Atlantic 2005 with 30-35 named storms...

[wxmann_91]

If we get an El Nino, I smell an insane 2007 Pacific hurricane season...it would be their Atlantic 2005 with 30-35 named storms...

Not even during the Super Ninos of 1997-98 and 1982-83, did the EPAC have that many storms.

[Cyclenall]

Yay another EPAC storm . The EPAC holds an insane lead right now.

If we get an El Nino, I smell an insane 2007 Pacific hurricane season...it would be their Atlantic 2005 with 30-35 named storms...

I was thinking that as well. However, the North East Pacific would not get that many storms, but 20-25 named storms is possible.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

LLC has became much stronger over the last 6 hours...With convection almost cdo like trying to form over it. Also banding forming over the southern side. Its likely a 40 knot tropical storm.

[JonathanBelles]

whats the next name?

[cycloneye]

whats the next name?

Hector.

[cycloneye]

960
WTPZ44 KNHC 160231
TCDEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 15 2006

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT T.D. NINE-E HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS. ACCORDINGLY...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT. A RECENT TRMM PASS INDICATED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...IMPLYING SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE SHIPS MODEL
INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO RESTRICT STRENGTHENING GIVEN
AN OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
MODEST STRENGTHENING THROUGH 48 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST SHIPS
AND GFDL MODEL RUNS. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/13...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ALONG
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED ON
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 48 HOUR AS IT
MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. BEYOND 48
HOURS...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY
BETWEEN 125W AND 135W WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL TURN MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON
THIS SOLUTION SAVE THE UKMET WHICH MAINTAINS A STRONGER RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE RESULTING IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL
MODELS RESULTING IN ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0300Z 13.3N 115.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 16/1200Z 13.5N 117.2W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/0000Z 14.0N 119.6W 45 KT
36HR VT 17/1200Z 14.7N 121.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.8N 123.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/0000Z 17.8N 127.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 20/0000Z 20.0N 130.5W 50 KT
120HR VT 21/0000Z 22.0N 134.5W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH

[bombarderoazul]

Tropical storm Hector is on it's way.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on what I see...

I see a cdo has formed over the LLC....85h data also shows this area is soildly over it. The LLC is very well developed. 85h data from 2UTC something shown curve banding over the western part. Which is a sign of a eye. Outflow is well developed. I say 45 knots right now. But thats me.

Now 45 knots
6 50 knots
12 55 knots
24 60 knots

If the Atmosphere fellows what I think...With the development of the central core...In it should fellow close to this.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _ep_0.html

Every full stripe on the wind barb is 10 knots...Some of those have 4 of them=40 knots. The flag if I remember right is 45 or 50 knots. This thing is much stronger then is stated.

[Cyclenall]

I have to agree with everything you have said Matt. On the AVN, you can see how the very deep convection is present in TD9-E for more then 2 hours (black in colour). It almost looks like a TS from the Wpac now!

It's becoming better organized quickly this early morning after doing little in the past 8 hours beforehand. It's more round and the deep convection is getting bigger. I'd say this is a TS. More later.

[Cyclenall]

We now have Tropical Storm Hector. Wow, I didn't see this coming! Change the title of the thread please. This is from the NRL only so it's not official.

Hector is at 40 Knots and has a pressure of 1000 mb. This is from the NRL. I guessed 40 Knots, 12 hours after Hector formed and I was correct.

[cycloneye]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 160833
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
200 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006

THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CORE CONVECTION ALL EVENING
WITH INTERMITTENT BANDING...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SUGGEST THAT THE
CENTER IS JUST WITHIN THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE MASS. DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS AT 06Z WERE T2.5...35 KT...FROM ALL AGENCIES...WITH
DATA-T NUMBERS AS HIGH AS T3.5. A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 01Z CAUGHT SOME
OF THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE WERE A LOT OF 30 KT VECTORS
OUTSIDE THE HEAVY CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WITH ONE
VECTOR NEAR 35 KT. THE PASS MISSED THE DEEP CONVECTION AND LIKELY
THE STRONGEST WINDS...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET TO
40 KT.

IF THE CENTER IS WHERE I THINK IT IS...THE INITIAL MOTION IS A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AT 270/13. THERE HAS
BEEN ONLY A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...AND THE BASIC SYNOPTIC REASONING IS UNCHANGED. HECTOR IS
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW THE RIDGE
ERODED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR 130W OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT DESPITE THIS EXHIBIT A FAIRLY LARGE SPREAD IN
THE FORECAST TRACKS OF HECTOR. THE RIGHTMOST OUTLIERS ARE THE
NOGAPS AND GFNI...WHICH START OFF THE CYCLONE WITH AN IMMEDIATE
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK THAT SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT
MOTION. ON THE LEFT IS THE UKMET...WHICH MARCHES HECTOR QUICKLY
OFF TO THE WEST AND SUBSEQUENTLY MISSES THE TROUGH. THE INITIAL
WESTWARD MOTION IN THE UKMET ALSO SEEMS INCONSISTENT WITH PRESENT
TRENDS. THIS LEAVES THE GFS AND GFDL IN THE MIDDLE...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THESE TWO MODELS THROUGH
96 HOURS. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HECTOR
PRESUMABLY WEAKENS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BENDS SLIGHTLY BACK TO
THE WEST IN ACCORD WITH THE SHALLOW BAM.

THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER HECTOR...
ALTHOUGH THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. HECTOR ALSO HAS ALMOST TWO DAYS OVER WARM WATERS. THE GFDL
BRINGS HECTOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 48 HOURS...BUT THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE TOPS OUT AT 54 KT. THE MAIN NEGATIVE PREDICTORS SEEM TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTRIBUTION OF COLD SATELLITE PIXEL
COUNTS...WHICH I CANNOT RECONCILE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT
SATELLITE PRESENTATION. GIVEN THE INTENSIFICATION OVERNIGHT...I AM
INCLINED TO FAVOR THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFDL...AND NOTE THAT THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE ALSO BRINGS HECTOR TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36 HOURS.
BY 72 HOURS...HECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE DECAYING OVER COOLER WATERS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/0900Z 13.1N 116.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 16/1800Z 13.4N 118.3W 50 KT
24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.0N 120.4W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/1800Z 14.6N 122.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 18/0600Z 15.5N 124.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 19/0600Z 17.5N 127.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 20/0600Z 19.5N 130.5W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/0600Z 21.0N 134.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HECTOR (EP092006) ON 20060816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060816 1200 060817 0000 060817 1200 060818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.0N 116.7W 13.3N 118.9W 13.6N 120.9W 13.9N 122.7W
BAMM 13.0N 116.7W 13.7N 118.6W 14.3N 120.5W 15.1N 122.6W
LBAR 13.0N 116.7W 13.4N 118.9W 14.2N 121.5W 15.2N 124.5W
SHIP 50KTS 61KTS 68KTS 71KTS
DSHP 50KTS 61KTS 68KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060818 1200 060819 1200 060820 1200 060821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.3N 124.6W 15.9N 128.4W 17.9N 131.6W 20.3N 132.3W
BAMM 16.0N 124.7W 18.2N 129.3W 20.2N 133.4W 21.7N 135.5W
LBAR 15.9N 127.6W 17.4N 133.3W 18.0N 137.2W 21.0N 137.4W
SHIP 71KTS 61KTS 45KTS 30KTS
DSHP 71KTS 61KTS 45KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.0N LONCUR = 116.7W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 114.7W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.8N LONM24 = 111.9W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 995MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 250NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 75NM RD34NW = 75NM


Hector continues to intensify,now up to 60 mph.

[AussieMark]

If we get an El Nino, I smell an insane 2007 Pacific hurricane season...it would be their Atlantic 2005 with 30-35 named storms...

Not even during the Super Ninos of 1997-98 and 1982-83, did the EPAC have that many storms.

altho 1992 had 27/16/10

included in that was central Pacific storms of 3/2/2

[clfenwi]

WTPZ44 KNHC 161455
TCDEP4
TROPICAL STORM HECTOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092006
800 AM PDT WED AUG 16 2006

ALL INDICATIONS FROM GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING ARE THAT
HECTOR IS STRENGTHENING...BUT JUST HOW STRONG IS SUBJECT TO SOME
SPECULATION...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE WELL-EMBEDDED BENEATH THE MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A TRMM OVERPASS FROM 1052Z SUGGESTED THE
CENTER WAS STILL TENDING TOWARD THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 55 KT...IN
LARGE PART DUE TO THE LOCATION UNCERTAINTY. GIVEN THE CENTER
LOCATION SUGGESTED BY THE TRMM DATA...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE HIGH END OF THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES...AND HECTOR COULD BECOME A HURRICANE VERY SOON.
INDEED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING...WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ANTICIPATED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...UNTIL THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT THREE
DAYS. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD...WITH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 80 KT AT 36-48 HOURS...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

HECTOR CONTINUES WESTWARD FOR NOW...270 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE REMAINS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS AND EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER
THE EXTREME EASTERN PACIFIC. HECTOR WILL PROBABLY SOON START
MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT REACHES A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NEAR 125 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
FORECAST SOMEWHAT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO PERSIST DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO THE NORTH OF HECTOR...BUT WITH JUST ENOUGH
RIDGING TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A
COUPLE OF OUTLIERS REMAIN ON BOTH SIDES OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SUITE...WITH THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ON THE NORTH AND THE UKMET ON THE
SOUTH. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODELS
IN THE MIDDLE...THE GFDL AND GFS...AND IS NUDGED JUST A BIT TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...TOWARD THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 16/1500Z 13.0N 117.2W 55 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 13.4N 118.7W 65 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 13.9N 120.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 14.6N 122.7W 80 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 15.3N 124.6W 80 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 17.0N 128.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 19.0N 132.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 20.5N 135.0W 30 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[CrazyC83]

Hurricane this afternoon?

[Cyclenall]

Hurricane this afternoon?

No, but a hurricane this evening is possible. I forecasted quick strengthening not rapid strengthening, which is exactly what Hector did over the past 16 hours. He jumped 10 knots in 6 hours to 40 knots which is alright, and then he jumped up another 15 knots in 6 hours after that. I call that fast intensification. Now Hector is 10 knots away from hurricane strength.

TS Hector has kept that very deep convection in the center (comes up as black on the AVN) and was roundish 2 hours ago but it appears that he is starting to wrap the deep convection around in which if successful, could become a hurricane. I also see a new band forming that is small on the last frames of the loop.

It's expected to become a hurricane in 48 hours. It's forecast to be at 35 Knots in 12 hours, I'm going to say it will be at 40 Knots in 12 hours. I think it will strengthen fast for the next 36-48 hours and then if the track is more west then north, slow weakening. If the track is more north then steady weakening after 72 hours.

The parts in bold is what I predicted would happen to Hector. I nailed it for the most part.