GOM System (Ex 95L)

#101 Postby **vbhoutex** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:49 pm

A look at the visible sat pic shows no turning imo, just a lot of outflow boundaries. As the NO AFD states it needs to be watched, but ATM I don't give this much chance to develop further. I could be eating crow soon though.

Yankeegirl · #102 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:51 pm

OK.. well can everyone blow at the same time, and maybe we can get this high parked over us to move just a little to open the door to some rain!!!!! ((or whatever...))

Yankeegirl · #103 Postby **Yankeegirl** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:53 pm

OMG It has an eye!!! J/K!!!!! :ggreen:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

duris · #104 Postby **duris** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 4:55 pm

Brandon007 wrote:I don't know about you guys but this thing kinda freaks me out I know you guys are saying its not likely to develop but it gives you a bad feeling when something that big is basically sitting in your back yard

These days we stay vigilant but try not to think about possible bad things too much. Kinda put the mind on cruise control until someone says jump.

Extremeweatherguy · #105 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:00 pm

I keep hearing this should move W or WSW, but if you look at Satellite wouldn't that motion take it into Central TX? I don't see how this would get far enough south to be a north Mexico issue.

Also once it got near land shouldn't it turn more WNW?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

Rainband · #106 Postby **Rainband** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:04 pm

It is weakening now. The tops are warming. May not need to worry about direction :lol:

Opal storm · #107 Postby **Opal storm** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:07 pm

This just looks likes a typical afternoon blow up of storms that will most likely fade out later tonight.Probably some rain for TX but imo I don't think anything will develop.

Thunder44 · #108 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:08 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:I keep hearing this should move W or WSW, but if you look at Satellite wouldn't that motion take it into Central TX? I don't see how this would get far enough south to be a north Mexico issue.

Also once it got near land shouldn't it turn more WNW?

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8dlm1.GIF

It depends on if and where the LLC forms.

It is weakening now. The tops are warming. May not need to worry about direction

The cloud tops have warmed a bit from earlier but for overall the thunderstorms continue to persist and form. There is still plenty of outflow alot and some inflow at low-levels going on. I don't expect this go away this evening.

Sanibel · #109 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:12 pm

2006 rule:

No red IR tops, no formation.

Noles2006 · #110 Postby **Noles2006** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:13 pm

It'll be gone by morning.

Extremeweatherguy · #111 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:29 pm

Sanibel wrote:2006 rule:

No red IR tops, no formation.

Another 2006 rule:

When people write off a system it mysteriously comes back (usually stronger) within 12 hrs.

#112 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:31 pm

If it is still there come tomorrow afternoon it might become something, but if it sits there the ULL to its east will shear it apart.

WmE · #113 Postby **WmE** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:31 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
Sanibel wrote:2006 rule:

No red IR tops, no formation.

Another 2006 rule:

When people write off a system it mysteriously comes back (usually stronger) within 12 hrs.

Only to dissipate few hours later.

Stratosphere747 · #114 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:33 pm

Not the typical GOM blob we see...BOC, yes. NGOM, no.

If it would sustain itself on any level over the next 6hrs, then possibilities. Has begun to lose coverage and convection though.

#115 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:43 pm

vbhoutex wrote:A look at the visible sat pic shows no turning imo, just a lot of outflow boundaries. As the NO AFD states it needs to be watched, but ATM I don't give this much chance to develop further. I could be eating crow soon though.

Fortunately, the disturbance is located in a region of relatively high surface observations. All observations indicate no LLC. Some good news is that cloud tops have warmed within the past hour, an indication of weakening.

Extremeweatherguy · #116 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:45 pm

According to the NHC overlay on the IR loop, it seems that the low is on the ENE side of the blob.

ROCK · #117 Postby **ROCK** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 5:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:
vbhoutex wrote:A look at the visible sat pic shows no turning imo, just a lot of outflow boundaries. As the NO AFD states it needs to be watched, but ATM I don't give this much chance to develop further. I could be eating crow soon though.

Fortunately, the disturbance is located in a region of relatively high surface observations. All observations indicate no LLC. Some good news is that cloud tops have warmed within the past hour, an indication of weakening.

Just got home from work. I can't access 2K from my job. Something about message boards that blocks me..... :lol:

Are these ships obs? b/c I had heard on another blog of dropping pressures reported by nearby ships.

#118 Postby **Lowpressure** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:01 pm

The story of this season so far, no staying power. Cloud seed with viagra.

#119 Postby **bevgo** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:03 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:just a blob, no big deal

Thanks. I was hoping someone would say that. Don't want to deal with a storm this weekend.

#120 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Aug 15, 2006 6:09 pm

I plotted the 21Z ship/buoy obs and made a 1mb analysis of the Gulf. The disturbance is within the red circle at the tail end of a surface trof that extends east through Florida. There's a small meso-high over the NW Gulf west of the disturbance. Clearly, no evidence of an LLC out there, just a sufrace trof.

For an LLC to develop, the thunderstorms will need to persist at least though mid day tomorrow. Already, there are signs of weakening, but I do expect at least some fluctuations overnight. With any luck, this blob will be gone by tomorrow morning as another blob moves southward into the Gulf:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/95L.gif

GOM System (Ex 95L)

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