Invest 93L,SE Carolinas,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL932006) ON 20060815 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060815 1200 060816 0000 060816 1200 060817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 75.0W 30.9N 75.7W 31.9N 76.4W 32.3N 76.9W
BAMM 29.5N 75.0W 30.9N 75.2W 32.2N 75.6W 33.0N 75.7W
A98E 29.5N 75.0W 30.5N 75.0W 31.4N 75.9W 33.0N 76.1W
LBAR 29.5N 75.0W 30.5N 75.0W 31.6N 74.7W 32.8N 74.4W
SHIP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 30KTS
DSHP 20KTS 22KTS 25KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060817 1200 060818 1200 060819 1200 060820 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 32.0N 77.3W 29.7N 79.6W 27.7N 85.0W 27.0N 90.6W
BAMM 33.3N 75.7W 32.0N 75.7W 30.6N 76.2W 29.9N 75.2W
A98E 33.3N 75.7W 31.6N 75.5W 29.9N 75.0W 29.0N 76.9W
LBAR 34.2N 73.7W 38.6N 72.2W 42.1N 68.5W 46.1N 56.4W
SHIP 33KTS 41KTS 44KTS 43KTS
DSHP 33KTS 41KTS 44KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 75.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 29.3N LONM12 = 74.7W DIRM12 = 168DEG SPDM12 = 2KT
LATM24 = 29.6N LONM24 = 75.5W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



12:00z Models.

[rockyman]

Steering flow this morning has reversed again...now from south to north

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[wxman57]

Steering flow this morning has reversed again...now from south to north

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Cold front/upper trof approaching from the west, high pressure moving east, BAM models don't see it so they forecast west movement. That's why you can't use BAMM/BAMD/BAMS out of the deep tropics where the upper flow is changing. Most dynamic models indicate a northward movement.

[Thunder44]

QS pass this morning shows a surface circulation that may be open on the west side around 29N and 75W. Highest winds about 25kt to 30kts east of the center.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/sto ... _at_0.html

[wjs3]

Looks like a "broad area of low pressure" on the QS. I think the west side is closed off--just it's a really broad circulation.

['CaneFreak]

Convection is beginning to fire again around the broad circulation of 93L....look at this rainbow image...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

this is not looking promising this morning. A large UL to the wet and a new one developing just east of the surface low

Upper low season continues

[gatorcane]

yep and yet again nothing can get going

[wxman57]

I agree, development looks rather unlikely. By 36 hours or so it'll be merging with the front and becoming a front low as it heads out to sea.

Perfect! I see another hurricane-free weekend coming!

Unfortunately, with the NAO now strongly negative, it's just a matter of time before we see a significant surge in development.

[SouthFloridawx]

I agree, development looks rather unlikely. By 36 hours or so it'll be merging with the front and becoming a front low as it heads out to sea.

Perfect! I see another hurricane-free weekend coming!

Unfortunately, with the NAO now strongly negative, it's just a matter of time before we see a significant surge in development.

Where do you get the info on the NAO? I didn't know it was strongly negative.

[gatorcane]

Unbelievable a cold front has "swept" through South Florida and it's mid-August, can I say colder than normal winter for the Eastern US this year?

NWS Mia discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER N CENTRAL FLA TODAY AND
INTO THE GULF WED. S FLA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SPEED DI
-VERGENCE KEEPING SOME UPWARD LIFT. ONE LESS FACTOR TODAY...AS POPS
A BIT LOWER THAN PROJECTED 24 HOURS AGO...IS THAT THE FRONTAL TROUGH
THOUGHT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER S FLA FOR TODAY HAS SWEPT THROUGH
S FLA. SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME NW AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NBAHAMAS HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED. MFL/MLB 88-DS CURRENTLY
INDICATE SHOWER ACTIVITY MOVING SW AROUND TW PORTION OF THE LOW AND
MOVING ONTO THE COAST FROM CAPE CANAVERAL S INTO PALM BEACH AND
BROWARD COUNTY. MODELS/00Z RAOBS AND PROJECTED RAOBS AND CURRENT
WATER VAPOR LOOPS INDICATE...DRIER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER AREA TODAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONGER TSTMS TODAY WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY
WINDS AND SOME HAIL. WINDS ABOVE 5K STILL W/NW SO ANY ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE FROM THE INTERIOR TOWARD THE E. STEERING WINDS STILL
LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL A POSSIBILITY. WINDS
CHANGE TO MORE SOUTHERLY WED AS UPPER LOW MOVES INTO GULF AND
SURFACE LOW OVER BAHAMAS MOVES NE. THIS INCREASES ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND POPS INCREASE AGAIN IN TURN BUT AFFECTING MAINLY
INTERIOR AND W AREAS AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE EXTREME S PORTION OF CWA
AND SE COAST

[Stormcenter]

This season is looking better and better everyday. Yeah I know we'll see some increase in activity in the next few weeks but it just doesn't look as bad as everyone had anticipated back in May or whenever. My only concern is who will get those big ones that do form, hopefully no one.

[whereverwx]

Wow, this thing hasn’t organized at all since last night. It has actually degenerated. I’m going to stick a fork in it.

[Thunder44]

this is not looking promising this morning. A large UL to the wet and a new one developing just east of the surface low

Upper low season continues

Wow I didn't even see that ULL developing to the east. Well I'm noticing some outlfow boundaries coming out from the cluster of storms, so it looks like the plane will be cancelled today and development looks unlikely from the system now.

[wxman57]

I agree, development looks rather unlikely. By 36 hours or so it'll be merging with the front and becoming a front low as it heads out to sea.

Perfect! I see another hurricane-free weekend coming!

Unfortunately, with the NAO now strongly negative, it's just a matter of time before we see a significant surge in development.

Where do you get the info on the NAO? I didn't know it was strongly negative.

NCEP's web site, here:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _ensm.html

It's at -2 now. low as it's been all year, just about.

[Sanibel]

System appears to be undergoing formation in weak environment.

[SouthFloridawx]

this is not looking promising this morning. A large UL to the wet and a new one developing just east of the surface low

Upper low season continues

The one to the east actually has been around for a few days.


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

There is another upper level TUTT feature developing to the Northeast of the Islands.

Eventhough these features move out with time.... I find it very interesting that they have mostly formed in the same area and have taken the same track. Form out in the Central Atlantic, around 20 N or so and then move westward.

I am wondering what is causing these ULL's to form and take pretty much the same track over the past couple of months.

EDIT:

I would like to add that GFS does not forecast this ULL to move westard towards the Bahamas. It takes it a little farther west then eventually northeast farther north.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[curtadams]

I'm curious what's so unfavorable for convection. Water is reasonably warm, air is moist on WV and SAL; but these convective pops keep evaporating. The globals seem to know what it is because they all show what's happening - weakening of a low as it drifts north. But what is it?

[SouthFloridawx]

I'm curious what's so unfavorable for convection. Water is reasonably warm, air is moist on WV and SAL; but these convective pops keep evaporating. The globals seem to know what it is because they all show what's happening - weakening of a low as it drifts north. But what is it?

I think it is getting some wind shear from the ULL's close by.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

There is currently 10-20kts of shear nearby the system, with 30kts not so far off.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[O Town]

Convection is beginning to fire again around the broad circulation of 93L....look at this rainbow image...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg

Check that link, its linking me to an old image of 92L.